Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The de facto total revenue increased by 10% YoY excluding two disposed shopping malls.</li>
<li>We believe Alibaba will win the price war for food deliveries, because competitors’ earnings were even worse.</li>
<li>The stock surged by 13% in NYSE after the result release, but we still believe it has an upside of 48% for next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


The de facto total revenue increased by 10% YoY excluding two disposed shopping malls.
We believe Alibaba will win the price war for food deliveries, because competitors’ earnings were even worse.
The stock surged by 13% in NYSE after the result release, but we still believe it has an upside of 48% for next twelve months.


Alibaba (BABA, 9988HK): June Quarter, Actually 2-Digit Growth, To Win Price War

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">BABA US)</a>will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time. The timing is crucial for options expiries in HK and the US.</li>
<li>
Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Get the expected move and a view of the post-event volatility term structure.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK/ BABA US)will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time. The timing is crucial for options expiries in HK and the US.

Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.

Why Read: Get the expected move and a view of the post-event volatility term structure.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Along with its fiscal 2024 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.</li>
<li>If the conversion is completed by the end of August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> capped at 8% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time.  In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Recent option trades show a bias towards bullish sentiment. Two strategies using weekly options expiring soon after the earnings announcement are explored.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning ahead of Tencent’s earnings.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK) will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time.  In the lead-up, options strategies on the Hong Kong Exchange showcase a variety of approaches.

Highlights: Recent option trades show a bias towards bullish sentiment. Two strategies using weekly options expiring soon after the earnings announcement are explored.

Why Read: This review offers real-market insight into how sophisticated participants are positioning ahead of Tencent’s earnings.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades Ahead of Earnings

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

Alibaba (BABA, 9988HK): June Quarter, Actually 2-Digit Growth, To Win Price War

The de facto total revenue increased by 10% YoY excluding two disposed shopping malls. We believe Alibaba will win the price war for food...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View

Alibaba (BABA US // 9988 HK) reports today, 29 Aug pre-open US. US-listed options expiring 29 Aug price a 1-day move of 5.8%, with the ATM...

Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades Ahead of Earnings

As Alibaba heads into 29 August earnings, option markets reveal activity from near-term spreads to longer-dated positioning. This Insight unpacks...

Gaudenz Schneider

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