Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the December quarter, CaiNiao's revenue declined -1% Y/Y; EBITA margin fell, too</li>
<li>CaiNiao's revenue growth has de-coupled from the growth of Alibaba's international segment</li>
<li>We believe price pressure on Chinese X-border logistics exceeds pressure within X-border retail
</li>
</ul>


In the December quarter, CaiNiao's revenue declined -1% Y/Y; EBITA margin fell, too
CaiNiao's revenue growth has de-coupled from the growth of Alibaba's international segment
We believe price pressure on Chinese X-border logistics exceeds pressure within X-border retail



CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group</a> is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.


MIXUE IPO - Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chifeng-jilong-gold-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7782:1" rel="noopener">Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH)</a>, a company owning multiple gold mines across the world, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing. </li>
<li>It is principally engaged in the mining, processing and sales of gold.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH), a company owning multiple gold mines across the world, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing. 
It is principally engaged in the mining, processing and sales of gold.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Chifeng Jilong A/H Listing: Riding on the Gold Rush

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>After rallying ~50% from its lows, Alibaba rallied another ~10% after reporting in-line result, despite saying it would spend more capex in the next 3 years than the previous 10; </li>
<li>Behind this performance is a sudden clarification of AI's monetization future in China. Alibaba's vision certainly has itself at the center of beneficiary, but a few other readings also exist;</li>
<li>Alibaba suggested that partial replacement of human worker is possible in a platform with structured workflow, allowing AI users to reap benefits earlier than we have anticipated. </li>
</ul>


After rallying ~50% from its lows, Alibaba rallied another ~10% after reporting in-line result, despite saying it would spend more capex in the next 3 years than the previous 10; 
Behind this performance is a sudden clarification of AI's monetization future in China. Alibaba's vision certainly has itself at the center of beneficiary, but a few other readings also exist;
Alibaba suggested that partial replacement of human worker is possible in a platform with structured workflow, allowing AI users to reap benefits earlier than we have anticipated. 


Alibaba's C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba (BABA US)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

Alibaba's latest quarterly earnings release shows that X-border logistics pricing and the pricing of X-border retail itself both remain under...

Tracking Traffic

MIXUE IPO - Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang

Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

Chifeng Jilong A/H Listing: Riding on the Gold Rush

Chifeng Jilong, a company owning multiple gold mines across the world, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.

Nicholas Tan

Alibaba's C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets

Alibaba's stock surges after in-line results and plans for increased capex, driven by optimism around AI monetization potential in China and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

Alibaba's latest quarterly earnings release shows that X-border logistics pricing and the pricing of X-border retail itself both remain under...

Tracking Traffic

MIXUE IPO - Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang

Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

Chifeng Jilong A/H Listing: Riding on the Gold Rush

Chifeng Jilong, a company owning multiple gold mines across the world, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.

Nicholas Tan

Alibaba's C4Q24 Result Says the Inflection Point of Chinese AI Has Arrived for the Capital Markets

​Alibaba's stock surges after in-line results and plans for increased capex, driven by optimism around AI monetization potential in China and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba's stock surges after in-line results and plans for increased capex, driven by optimism around AI monetization potential in China and...