Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.</li>
<li>Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).</li>
<li>Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.</li>
</ul>


Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.
Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).
Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.


Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.</li>
<li>Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.</li>
<li>Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).</li>
</ul>


Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.
Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.
Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).


Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

<ul>
<li>Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook</li>
<li>Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.</li>
<li>The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.</li>
</ul>


Gold has compounded ~8–9% annually over two decades, with structural drivers — central bank demand, energy transition, and supply discipline — supporting a constructive long-term outlook
Gold equities historically show 1.5–2.5x beta to bullion with correlations of 0.6–0.8, amplifying upside in bull cycles and underperforming in downturns.
The sector has already seen a sharp run-up, but positioning, fundamentals, and macro tailwinds suggest this rally may still have legs.


Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.7% as of Aug 7th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, health care, utilities and offset by consumer staples, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Remegen, Cmoc, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Luxshare Ict, Beone Medicines.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 196 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.7% as of Aug 7th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, health care, utilities and offset by consumer staples, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Remegen, Cmoc, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Luxshare Ict, Beone Medicines.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 7th): Remegen, Cmoc, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Luxshare Ict

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 79.4% as of Jul 24th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -3.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, utilities, materials and offset by communication services, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan, CNOOC, Fuyao Glass, ZTE, Nci.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 79.4% as of Jul 24th.
The average A-H premium changed by -3.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, utilities, materials and offset by communication services, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan, CNOOC, Fuyao Glass, ZTE, Nci.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 24th): China Longyuan, CNOOC, Fuyao Glass, ZTE, Nci

China

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. is engaged in the production and sale of gold ingots. The Company also provides silver products. Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining operates its businesses in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988 CH)

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 7th): Remegen, Cmoc, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Luxshare Ict

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Remegen, Cmoc, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Luxshare Ict,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 24th): China Longyuan, CNOOC, Fuyao Glass, ZTE, Nci

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Longyuan, CNOOC, Fuyao Glass, ZTE, Nci.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

​Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

​Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Asia’s Gold Miners: High-Beta Plays for Gold’s Next Surge

​Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.

Rahul Jain

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 7th): Remegen, Cmoc, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Luxshare Ict

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Remegen, Cmoc, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Luxshare Ict,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 24th): China Longyuan, CNOOC, Fuyao Glass, ZTE, Nci

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Longyuan, CNOOC, Fuyao Glass, ZTE, Nci.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Gold has shown consistent growth over two decades, while gold equities historically amplify bullion's performance but may still have room to run.