External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Per NBS, YoY growth of retail sales came in at 4.0% in 2M25, improving from 3.7% in Dec 2024.</li><li>In our view, this was boosted by nationwide trade-in program, but shy of Wind consensus at 4.5%.</li><li>Online physical goods GMV growth saw a further recovery MoM, with growth stood at 5.0% YoY in 2M25 (2024: 6.5%), which was improved from 3.5% in 4Q24. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Per NBS, YoY growth of retail sales came in at 4.0% in 2M25, improving from 3.7% in Dec 2024.In our view, this was boosted by nationwide trade-in program, but shy of Wind consensus at 4.5%.Online physical goods GMV growth saw a further recovery MoM, with growth stood at 5.0% YoY in 2M25 (2024: 6.5%), which was improved from 3.5% in 4Q24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - 2M25 NBS data shy of consensus, but expectation for stimulus policy on the rise

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,262/1,252 points and the resistance at 1,282/1,290 points.</li><li>The MSCI rebalancing for February will be announced on February 11 (Thailand time: February 12) and will take effect on closing prices on February 28, 2025.</li><li>KTX expects the US January 2025 inflation report to show signs of easing due to: i) a decline in cost-push inflation, as natural gas prices fell 16% MoM and oil prices remained stable at +0.8% MoM; and ii) a slowdown in service sector inflation (demand-pull inflation), reflected in the ISM Services Index for January 2025, which dropped to 52.8 from 54.0 in the previous month.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,262/1,252 points and the resistance at 1,282/1,290 points.The MSCI rebalancing for February will be announced on February 11 (Thailand time: February 12) and will take effect on closing prices on February 28, 2025.KTX expects the US January 2025 inflation report to show signs of easing due to: i) a decline in cost-push inflation, as natural gas prices fell 16% MoM and oil prices remained stable at +0.8% MoM; and ii) a slowdown in service sector inflation (demand-pull inflation), reflected in the ISM Services Index for January 2025, which dropped to 52.8 from 54.0 in the previous month.

Earnings Results & US Inflation (Wednesday)

<ul><li>We update our sector investment views for the next six months post earnings as follows: 1) Companies with solid fundamentals and high revenue and profit growth visibility; 2) sustained profitability and willingness to lift shareholder returns; and 3) a sizeable TAM for new initiatives and business explorations likely to generate a decent ROIC.</li><li>We believe the market will continue to allocate to such names and value them fairly.</li><li>Taking into account 2Q results and recent stock performances, we find our previous view has been testified: better-than-expected earnings are not enough to drive a share rally, but better-than-expected 3Q/full-year outlook and enhanced shareholder return measures could provide key support. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We update our sector investment views for the next six months post earnings as follows: 1) Companies with solid fundamentals and high revenue and profit growth visibility; 2) sustained profitability and willingness to lift shareholder returns; and 3) a sizeable TAM for new initiatives and business explorations likely to generate a decent ROIC.We believe the market will continue to allocate to such names and value them fairly.Taking into account 2Q results and recent stock performances, we find our previous view has been testified: better-than-expected earnings are not enough to drive a share rally, but better-than-expected 3Q/full-year outlook and enhanced shareholder return measures could provide key support. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - 2Q24 Recap & Stock-Picking Ideas: Seeking Certainty

<ul><li>Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our previous expectation.</li><li>From a full-year perspective, given the rate cut cycle has not yet started and liquidity remains tight, we suggest focusing on: 1) companies capable of boosting shareholder returns or maintaining decent returns, supported by solid fundamentals (strong competitive advantages, steady growth in core business, and stable profitability) and committed to enhancing shareholder returns (also depends on management's willingness), such as Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase;</li><li>2) companies whose new businesses have significant market potential and are poised to bring considerable capital gains in the long run, particularly from overseas expansion and AI-related initiatives, such as Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba, and Trip.com</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our previous expectation.From a full-year perspective, given the rate cut cycle has not yet started and liquidity remains tight, we suggest focusing on: 1) companies capable of boosting shareholder returns or maintaining decent returns, supported by solid fundamentals (strong competitive advantages, steady growth in core business, and stable profitability) and committed to enhancing shareholder returns (also depends on management's willingness), such as Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase;2) companies whose new businesses have significant market potential and are poised to bring considerable capital gains in the long run, particularly from overseas expansion and AI-related initiatives, such as Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba, and Trip.comContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - 1Q24 recap & our three stock-picking ideas

<ul><li>Based on NBS data, 2M24 online retail sales GMV/online physical goods GMV reached RMB2.2tn/1.8tn, up 15.3/14.4% YoY, which implied a two-year CAGR of 10.7/9.8%.</li><li>The growth of total online retail sales GMV continued to outpace that of online physical goods GMV, which was likely due to the robust growth in online travel bookings during the CNY holiday.</li><li>Leading e-commerce platforms are prioritizing GMV and revenue growth over margin improvement in 2024, and guided to reinvest incremental operating profit generated to drive further business growth, which likely indicates more intensified industry competition. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Based on NBS data, 2M24 online retail sales GMV/online physical goods GMV reached RMB2.2tn/1.8tn, up 15.3/14.4% YoY, which implied a two-year CAGR of 10.7/9.8%.The growth of total online retail sales GMV continued to outpace that of online physical goods GMV, which was likely due to the robust growth in online travel bookings during the CNY holiday.Leading e-commerce platforms are prioritizing GMV and revenue growth over margin improvement in 2024, and guided to reinvest incremental operating profit generated to drive further business growth, which likely indicates more intensified industry competition. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - 2M24 online retail sales recap

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology, offering C2C, B2C, and B2B sales services through various marketplaces. It also provides digital media and entertainment, logistics, and cloud computing services. The company was founded in Hangzhou, China, in 1999.

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Alibaba (9988 HK)

Internet - 2M25 NBS data shy of consensus, but expectation for stimulus policy on the rise

Per NBS, YoY growth of retail sales came in at 4.0% in 2M25, improving from 3.7% in Dec 2024. In our view, this was boosted by nationwide trade-in...

CMB International

Earnings Results & US Inflation (Wednesday)

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,262/1,252 points and the resistance at 1,282/1,290 points. The...

Krungthai XSpring

Internet - 2Q24 Recap & Stock-Picking Ideas: Seeking Certainty

We update our sector investment views for the next six months post earnings as follows: 1) Companies with solid fundamentals and high revenue and...

CMB International

Internet - 1Q24 recap & our three stock-picking ideas

Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our...

CMB International

Internet - 2M24 online retail sales recap

Based on NBS data, 2M24 online retail sales GMV/online physical goods GMV reached RMB2.2tn/1.8tn, up 15.3/14.4% YoY, which implied a two-year CAGR...

CMB International

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