HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-youran-dairy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31075:1" rel="noopener">China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhaojin-mining-industry-company-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4626:1" rel="noopener">Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a> are possible candidates.</li>
<li>Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.</li>
</ul>


The YTD rally in the Hong Kong and China markets has made it appealing for highly leveraged and outperforming stocks to make placements to raise fresh equity.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK), China Youran Dairy Group (9858 HK), Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK), Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK), and BYD Electronics (285 HK) are possible candidates.
Four of the top 30 YTD best-performing Hang Seng Composite stocks have made placements in the last three months, raising a total of HK$1.3bn with mixed performance since then.


China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.</li>
<li>The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.</li>
<li>Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.</li>
</ul>


PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.
The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.
Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.


Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>Odd Lots podcast announces live show in Washington D.C. discussing the Jones Act and other topics</li><li>Tim Opler from Ste discusses China's role in the pharmaceutical supply chain on the podcast</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Odd Lots podcast announces live show in Washington D.C. discussing the Jones Act and other topicsTim Opler from Ste discusses China's role in the pharmaceutical supply chain on the podcastThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Here Comes the Booming Chinese Biotech Sector

<ul>
<li>Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.</li>
<li>Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.</li>
<li>PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.</li>
</ul>


Recent surge of share price is driven by the craze for DeepSeek/AI in digital healthcare, not the improvement of fundamentals or effective validation of business model.So, the rally won’t last.
Although AI is a great story, the extent to which DeepSeek can bring substantial benefits to PAGD remains to be verified. Small revenue scale may lead to low valuation premium.
PAGD is expected to turn loss into profits in 2024. Short-term valuation should be lower than peers. When PAGD achieve profitability/revenue in large scale, P/B would approach the industry average.


Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) - The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

<ul>
<li>Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. </li>
<li>More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, and even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. 
More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), and even Hang Lung Properties (101 HK). 

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect Meituan (3690 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

China

Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited is an integrated healthcare information and content service provider. The Company uses product identification, authentication, and tracking system data for its healthcare information.

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Alibaba Health Information Tec (241 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK) is the first one in our top 5 list to make a placement. The company is placing 140m H-shares at HK$14.08 to raise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Ping An Group's support has helped PAGD turn loss into profits in 2024, but the peak revenue scale may be just about RMB8 billion. Market value of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Here Comes the Booming Chinese Biotech Sector

Odd Lots podcast announces live show in Washington D.C. discussing the Jones Act and other topics Tim Opler from Ste discusses China's role in the...

Odd Lots

Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) - The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

Surge in share price is driven by AI craze in digital healthcare. If the fundamentals do not improve with the development/iteration of AI, then...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Assessing Placement Risks, Who Needs Money?

Zhaojin Mining Industry (1818 HK) is the first one in our top 5 list to make a placement. The company is placing 140m H-shares at HK$14.08 to raise...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

​Ping An Group's support has helped PAGD turn loss into profits in 2024, but the peak revenue scale may be just about RMB8 billion. Market value of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Here Comes the Booming Chinese Biotech Sector

Odd Lots podcast announces live show in Washington D.C. discussing the Jones Act and other topics Tim Opler from Ste discusses China's role in the...

Odd Lots

Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK) - The Mandatory General Offer and DeepSeek Story May Not Turn the Tide

​Surge in share price is driven by AI craze in digital healthcare. If the fundamentals do not improve with the development/iteration of AI, then...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

​"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Ping An Group's support has helped PAGD turn loss into profits in 2024, but the peak revenue scale may be just about RMB8 billion. Market value of...

Surge in share price is driven by AI craze in digital healthcare. If the fundamentals do not improve with the development/iteration of AI, then...

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...