HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

CIMC Enric Holdings Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets gas equipment.  The Company produces compressors, pressure vessels, gas refueling station trailers, and other gas equipment, as well as transportation equipment such as containers, trailers, tank equipments and airport equipments.

<ul>
<li>Although the 1Q24 revenue of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a> has edged down by 6.8%, this is not a concern as its order backlog suggested a resilient pipeline.</li>
<li>New orders signed increased by 35.7% with that for clean energy surged 100.2%. Order backlog of Rmb26.9bn represents a growth of 41.9% YoY and 17.8% against end-FY23.</li>
<li>Management also commented that there is a marked improvement in gross margin for 1Q24 and expects this trend to continue. Its 10.8x PER is inexpensive.</li>
</ul>


Although the 1Q24 revenue of CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) has edged down by 6.8%, this is not a concern as its order backlog suggested a resilient pipeline.
New orders signed increased by 35.7% with that for clean energy surged 100.2%. Order backlog of Rmb26.9bn represents a growth of 41.9% YoY and 17.8% against end-FY23.
Management also commented that there is a marked improvement in gross margin for 1Q24 and expects this trend to continue. Its 10.8x PER is inexpensive.


CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Robust Order Backlog Outshined Lower 1Q24 Revenue

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> has a solid FY23 and 4Q23 with massive net profit recovery. Earnings momentum for FY24 and FY25 look to stay impressive.</li>
<li>FY23 is a record year of profit, demonstrating its ability to gain market share after COVID-19 disruption. Further volume growth will lead to better operating leverage.</li>
<li>Net cash reached Rmb2.3bn, up 90.4% YoY, showcasing its cash-generating ability. The first-time dividend payout also reflected management's confidence on the outlook.</li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) has a solid FY23 and 4Q23 with massive net profit recovery. Earnings momentum for FY24 and FY25 look to stay impressive.
FY23 is a record year of profit, demonstrating its ability to gain market share after COVID-19 disruption. Further volume growth will lead to better operating leverage.
Net cash reached Rmb2.3bn, up 90.4% YoY, showcasing its cash-generating ability. The first-time dividend payout also reflected management's confidence on the outlook.


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Riding the High Tide

Fosun Tourism Group operates as a leisure focused integrated tourism group. The Company provides resorts management, tourism destinations development, and other related services. Fosun Tourism Group offers its services worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> saw a healthy 15.8% overall business volume growth in 1Q24, with net profit sustaining improvement. This should justify a catch-up in share price.</li>
<li>The cumulative bookings for Club Med for 1H24 have increased 13% YoY, while those for 2H24 have increased 10%. Positive forward bookings indicate an encouraging outlook.</li>
<li>Four new Club Med resorts to be opened in 2024 and the increase in attractiveness of Hainan after it turns into a duty-free island by 2025 are both drivers.   </li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) saw a healthy 15.8% overall business volume growth in 1Q24, with net profit sustaining improvement. This should justify a catch-up in share price.
The cumulative bookings for Club Med for 1H24 have increased 13% YoY, while those for 2H24 have increased 10%. Positive forward bookings indicate an encouraging outlook.
Four new Club Med resorts to be opened in 2024 and the increase in attractiveness of Hainan after it turns into a duty-free island by 2025 are both drivers.   


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): A Long-Awaited Upturn

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With US inflation figures higher than expectations, there is an increase in risk that the Fed's next move may be a hike.  Some HSI constituents are set to benefit.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK),</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> have significant USD net cash position and will be gainers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> have large China operations but they are net long on USD balance and this will make them beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


With US inflation figures higher than expectations, there is an increase in risk that the Fed's next move may be a hike.  Some HSI constituents are set to benefit.

Orient Overseas International (316 HK), Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) have significant USD net cash position and will be gainers.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) and Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) have large China operations but they are net long on USD balance and this will make them beneficiaries.


HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

Pacific Basin Shipping / Equity Bottom-Up

Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation services and logistical support to its customers through the commercial operation of a large, modern, and uniformly-sized fleet of shallow-draft Handysize dry bulk carriers.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK)</a> just announced a US$40m buyback which equals 2.5% of market capitalisation, showcasing management's confidence in the outlook.</li>
<li>At end-1Q24, it covered 68% of FY24 Handysize days at US$10,960/day and 78% of Supermax days at US$13,370/day, leaving significant room to capture the upside in 2H24.</li>
<li>Market consensus looks overly conservative with FY24 earnings of US$154m, given BDI of 1,808 YTD. The average half-year BDI and net profit since 1H20 is 1,822 and US$189m.  </li>
</ul>



Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) just announced a US$40m buyback which equals 2.5% of market capitalisation, showcasing management's confidence in the outlook.
At end-1Q24, it covered 68% of FY24 Handysize days at US$10,960/day and 78% of Supermax days at US$13,370/day, leaving significant room to capture the upside in 2H24.
Market consensus looks overly conservative with FY24 earnings of US$154m, given BDI of 1,808 YTD. The average half-year BDI and net profit since 1H20 is 1,822 and US$189m.  


Pacific Basin (2343 HK): The Market Is Overly Conservative

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

Osbert Tang, CFA
HK/China Equity Long-Short

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Robust Order Backlog Outshined Lower 1Q24 Revenue

While CIMC Enric's 1Q24 revenue was down, new orders signed increased by 35.7%. Order backlog also grew 41.9% YoY and 17.8% against end-FY23....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Riding the High Tide

According to www.fliggy.com, outbound travel bookings during the 5-day Labour Day holiday have doubled this year. This was achieved on a high base...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): A Long-Awaited Upturn

Overall business volume grew 15.8% in 1Q24 with net profit sustaining improvement. Positive forward bookings indicated an encouraging outlook and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): The Market Is Overly Conservative

Pacific Basin announces US$40m share buyback, showing management's confidence in the outlook. Its vessel day coverage for FY24 leaves room for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Robust Order Backlog Outshined Lower 1Q24 Revenue

While CIMC Enric's 1Q24 revenue was down, new orders signed increased by 35.7%. Order backlog also grew 41.9% YoY and 17.8% against end-FY23....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Riding the High Tide

According to www.fliggy.com, outbound travel bookings during the 5-day Labour Day holiday have doubled this year. This was achieved on a high base...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): A Long-Awaited Upturn

Overall business volume grew 15.8% in 1Q24 with net profit sustaining improvement. Positive forward bookings indicated an encouraging outlook and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

​HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): The Market Is Overly Conservative

​Pacific Basin announces US$40m share buyback, showing management's confidence in the outlook. Its vessel day coverage for FY24 leaves room for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSI constituents like Orient Overseas, Budweiser Brewing, Galaxy Entertainment, Sunny Optical, and Haier Smart Home are set to gain in case the...

Pacific Basin announces US$40m share buyback, showing management's confidence in the outlook. Its vessel day coverage for FY24 leaves room for...