Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize / PostNL | EUR 2/parcel levy on non-EU parcels as of 1 January 2026 • Unilever | sells Graze to Katjes International • CM.com | clients are offered migration program to switch to Bird • Black Friday week sales | online transactions up by approx. 5% YoY • Dutch retail sales | up 3.1% YoY in October; no meaningful change in the growth trend</li></ul>

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize / PostNL | EUR 2/parcel levy on non-EU parcels as of 1 January 2026 • Unilever | sells Graze to Katjes International • CM.com | clients are offered migration program to switch to Bird • Black Friday week sales | online transactions up by approx. 5% YoY • Dutch retail sales | up 3.1% YoY in October; no meaningful change in the growth trend

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ahold Delhaize | Albert Heijn Belgium did not violate the law Albert Heijn did not breach competition or consumer protection laws with its high-profile ‘2+5’ discount promotions, according to an investigation ordered by Belgian Consumer Protection Minister Rob Beenders.</li>
<li>The probe found no evidence of selling below cost or misleading promotions despite complaints about empty shelves and unclear conditions.</li>
<li>Authorities will continue monitoring pricing strategies to ensure transparency and prevent cross-subsidization through price increases on other products.</li>
</ul>


Ahold Delhaize | Albert Heijn Belgium did not violate the law Albert Heijn did not breach competition or consumer protection laws with its high-profile ‘2+5’ discount promotions, according to an investigation ordered by Belgian Consumer Protection Minister Rob Beenders.
The probe found no evidence of selling below cost or misleading promotions despite complaints about empty shelves and unclear conditions.
Authorities will continue monitoring pricing strategies to ensure transparency and prevent cross-subsidization through price increases on other products.


<ul>
<li>Orlen has terminated its agreement with Poczta Polska to sell Orlen Paczka, formally ending plans for the Polish Post to acquire up to 100% of the parcel and locker operator.</li>
<li>This closes a high-profile consolidation project that had been positioned as a cornerstone of building a national, state-backed logistics champion capable of competing with private courier leaders.</li>
<li>As a result, Orlen retains full ownership of Orlen Paczka, which continues to operate independently in the highly competitive KEP (courier, express, parcel) market.</li>
</ul>


Orlen has terminated its agreement with Poczta Polska to sell Orlen Paczka, formally ending plans for the Polish Post to acquire up to 100% of the parcel and locker operator.
This closes a high-profile consolidation project that had been positioned as a cornerstone of building a national, state-backed logistics champion capable of competing with private courier leaders.
As a result, Orlen retains full ownership of Orlen Paczka, which continues to operate independently in the highly competitive KEP (courier, express, parcel) market.


<ul>
<li>Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock “merger of equals” between AkzoNobel and Axalta.</li>
<li>The firm argues the deal is poorly timed given Axalta’s strong momentum: 12 consecutive quarters of EBITDA and margin growth, stable net leverage at 2.5×, and significant share repurchases planned, with over 90% of free cash flow targeted for buybacks this year.</li>
<li>In contrast, Artisan highlights Akzo Nobel’s long-term deterioration, citing revenue declines from EUR 14.9bn in 2015 to EUR 7.8 billion YTD 2025 and EPS erosion from EUR 4.02 to EUR 3.07</li>
</ul>


Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock “merger of equals” between AkzoNobel and Axalta.
The firm argues the deal is poorly timed given Axalta’s strong momentum: 12 consecutive quarters of EBITDA and margin growth, stable net leverage at 2.5×, and significant share repurchases planned, with over 90% of free cash flow targeted for buybacks this year.
In contrast, Artisan highlights Akzo Nobel’s long-term deterioration, citing revenue declines from EUR 14.9bn in 2015 to EUR 7.8 billion YTD 2025 and EPS erosion from EUR 4.02 to EUR 3.07


What's News in Amsterdam - 20 November (AkzoNobel | Corbion | Allegro | Consumer confidence)

<ul>
<li>Heineken | no real triggers for the near term; October may bring more clarity</li>
<li>The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt to under promise and overdeliver or rather a signal that the current market environment is still rather challenging.</li>
<li>In case of the latter, management would have an additional buffer to avoid new disappointments.</li>
</ul>


Heineken | no real triggers for the near term; October may bring more clarity
The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt to under promise and overdeliver or rather a signal that the current market environment is still rather challenging.
In case of the latter, management would have an additional buffer to avoid new disappointments.


What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

Poland

Allegro.eu SA operates shopping e-commerce platform. The Company offers products in categories such as automotive, fashion, home and garden, electronics, books and collectibles, and health and beauty. Allegro.eu serves customers in Europe.

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Allegro.eu (ALE PW)

Allegro.eu SA - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize / PostNL | EUR 2/parcel levy on non-EU parcels as of 1 January 2026 • Unilever | sells Graze to Katjes...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam

Albert Heijn Belgium did not violate the law Albert Heijn did not breach competition or consumer protection laws with its high-profile ‘2+5’...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam

In today's edition: • InPost | deal between Orlen Paczka and Poczta Polska is off • RELX / Wolters Kluwer | how fAIr are investors’...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 20 November (AkzoNobel | Corbion | Allegro | Consumer confidence)

Artisan Partners’ Global Value Team, a USD 35bn asset manager holding 1.4 million Axalta shares, has come out against the proposed all-stock...

The IDEA!

What's New(S) In Amsterdam - 29 July (Heineken | Philips | JET | E-Com | Housing Market)

The key-question that remains after yesterday’s earnings call is whether Heineken’s decision to hold on to its earlier FY25 guidance is an attempt...

The IDEA!

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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