Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Notwithstanding press headlines reading ‘Alphamin Resources profit slumps in first quarter on DRC disruptions’, the company’s Q125 results were universally better than in Q124 and consistent with its operational performance (disclosed on 17 April). Despite a temporary halt in operations at the mine on 13 March due to the regional security situation, Alphamin was cash flow positive during the quarter. It turned US$38.5m in net debt into US$3.9m of net cash (excluding US$5.6m in lease liabilities), even though it sold 407 fewer tonnes than it produced, which we estimate cost c US$13.2m in revenue. We have cut our FY25 dividend forecast from C$0.15/share to C$0.12/share, partly reflecting the board’s decision to pass the FY24 final distribution, but also a wish to return to C$0.06/share semi-annual payments as soon as possible. However, this still leaves Alphamin’s shares on a very generous yield. We have trimmed our FY25 EPS forecast by a very modest 0.4% to US$0.09/share (cf 1.85 US cents in Q1).

Notwithstanding press headlines reading ‘Alphamin Resources profit slumps in first quarter on DRC disruptions’, the company’s Q125 results were universally better than in Q124 and consistent with its operational performance (disclosed on 17 April). Despite a temporary halt in operations at the mine on 13 March due to the regional security situation, Alphamin was cash flow positive during the quarter. It turned US$38.5m in net debt into US$3.9m of net cash (excluding US$5.6m in lease liabilities), even though it sold 407 fewer tonnes than it produced, which we estimate cost c US$13.2m in revenue. We have cut our FY25 dividend forecast from C$0.15/share to C$0.12/share, partly reflecting the board’s decision to pass the FY24 final distribution, but also a wish to return to C$0.06/share semi-annual payments as soon as possible. However, this still leaves Alphamin’s shares on a very generous yield. We have trimmed our FY25 EPS forecast by a very modest 0.4% to US$0.09/share (cf 1.85 US cents in Q1).

Alphamin Resources — Honing FY25 forecasts

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul>
<li>Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company's journey and capital allocation</li>
<li>Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset</li>
<li>Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company's journey and capital allocation
Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset
Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

No Spin, Just Tin. Brett Smith on MetalsX and Every Tin Project

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.</li>
<li>Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.</li>
<li>If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!</li>
</ul>


Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!


Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>At the current time, we find the rebound in US equity markets increasingly difficult to rationalize.</li><li>With trade war uncertainty still high, limited new stimulus from tax policy (especially given the high likelihood that no progress on meaningful spending cuts will be achieved), and a patient Fed, there’s little clarity on how growth or earnings can improve enough to justify what were already high valuation levels.</li><li>Cross-asset signals, such as tighter credit spreads and a falling dollar, highlight a disconnect between market optimism and the administration’s ongoing efforts to address trade imbalances.</li></ul>

At the current time, we find the rebound in US equity markets increasingly difficult to rationalize.With trade war uncertainty still high, limited new stimulus from tax policy (especially given the high likelihood that no progress on meaningful spending cuts will be achieved), and a patient Fed, there’s little clarity on how growth or earnings can improve enough to justify what were already high valuation levels.Cross-asset signals, such as tighter credit spreads and a falling dollar, highlight a disconnect between market optimism and the administration’s ongoing efforts to address trade imbalances.

Lithium Americas Argentina Cor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of 0.18% and short book returns of 0.03%.</li><li>In 2024, the strategy was up 12.1% net of fees, with gross of fees gains from the long book of 12.1% and short book of 1.0%.</li><li>Through the 21st of January 2025, the portfolio is up 6.6%.</li></ul>

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of 0.18% and short book returns of 0.03%.In 2024, the strategy was up 12.1% net of fees, with gross of fees gains from the long book of 12.1% and short book of 1.0%.Through the 21st of January 2025, the portfolio is up 6.6%.

Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

Canada

Alphamin Resources Corporation is a tin concentrate producer from its high grade deposit at Mpama North, North Kivu DRC. The Company focuses on the production from its current mine and development of additional tin prospects. Alphamin Resources serves customers from Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo.

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Alphamin Resources (AFM CN)

Alphamin Resources — Honing FY25 forecasts

Notwithstanding press headlines reading ‘Alphamin Resources profit slumps in first quarter on DRC disruptions’, the company’s Q125 results were...

Edison Investment Research

No Spin, Just Tin. Brett Smith on MetalsX and Every Tin Project

The interviewee led a successful restructuring of Metals X, selling off distressed assets and increasing market cap significantly.

Money of Mine

Monday Delight: 20/10/25

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help...

Contrarian Cashflows

2025 First Quarter Letter to Investors

At the current time, we find the rebound in US equity markets increasingly difficult to rationalize. With trade war uncertainty still high, limited...

Massif Capital Research

Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of...

Massif Capital Research

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