Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Consolidated sales of P$20bn were 12.1% higher YoY, yet below our more upbeat estimates partially due to lower unit growth, while consolidated SSS of 5.1% were above our estimates of 4.5%.</li><li>Within the different formats in Mexico strong performances in Full-Service Restaurants and Starbucks helped offset the QSR decline, while Starbucks in Europe has started to regain share lost during the boycott.</li><li> Profitability contracted more than expected.</li></ul>

Consolidated sales of P$20bn were 12.1% higher YoY, yet below our more upbeat estimates partially due to lower unit growth, while consolidated SSS of 5.1% were above our estimates of 4.5%.Within the different formats in Mexico strong performances in Full-Service Restaurants and Starbucks helped offset the QSR decline, while Starbucks in Europe has started to regain share lost during the boycott. Profitability contracted more than expected.

<ul>
<li>Consolidated sales of P$22bn were 11.5% higher YoY, in line with consensus and below our estimates on the back lower-than-expected unit growth yet solid SSS.</li>
<li>Consolidated sales were driven by growth across all regions.</li>
<li>Within the different formats, Domino’s Pizza in Mexico continues growing solidly, while Starbucks in Europe has started to regain share lost during the boycott.</li>
</ul>


Consolidated sales of P$22bn were 11.5% higher YoY, in line with consensus and below our estimates on the back lower-than-expected unit growth yet solid SSS.
Consolidated sales were driven by growth across all regions.
Within the different formats, Domino’s Pizza in Mexico continues growing solidly, while Starbucks in Europe has started to regain share lost during the boycott.


Actinver Research - Alsea 4Q24: Mexico Is the Highlight (Quick View)

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.</li>
<li>Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).</li>
<li>We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. </li>
</ul>


We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.
Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).
We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

Mexico

Alsea S.A.B. de C.V. is a multi-brand operator in Latin America, operating brands from the fast food, cafeteria and casual dining segments.

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