Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market</li>
<li>Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal</li>
<li>A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets</li>
</ul>


The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market
Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets


2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Equity Bottom-Up

Citic Resources Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>One of a basket of Hong Kong commodity stocks we like</li>
<li>One off issues in 2023 which should reverse in 2024</li>
<li>Can also be viewed as  a tangential play on India's industrial growth</li>
</ul>


One of a basket of Hong Kong commodity stocks we like
One off issues in 2023 which should reverse in 2024
Can also be viewed as  a tangential play on India's industrial growth


Citic Resource Holdings (1205.HK) - A Play on Oil and Coal Demand

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, Xiaomi, HSTECH ETF, CNOOC, ICBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, Xiaomi, HSTECH ETF, CNOOC, ICBC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Alibaba, Xiaomi

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dawning Information Industry C / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 12 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dawning-information-industry-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25380:1" rel="noopener">Dawning Information Industry C (603019 CH)</a> is a surprise add given the upcoming merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hygon-information-technology-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36366:1" rel="noopener">Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> adds have underperformed the deletes over the last couple of months and there could be outperformance from here as positioning builds ahead of the implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 constituent changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 12 December.

Dawning Information Industry C (603019 CH) is a surprise add given the upcoming merger with Hygon Information Technology C (688041 CH). 
The SSE50 Index adds have underperformed the deletes over the last couple of months and there could be outperformance from here as positioning builds ahead of the implementation of the changes.


SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade

China

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, also known as Chalco, is a producer of alumina and primary aluminum in China. The Company refines bauxite into alumina and smelts alumina to produce primary aluminum.

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Aluminum Corporation Of China (2600 HK)

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

Citic Resource Holdings (1205.HK) - A Play on Oil and Coal Demand

A HK commodity stock with earnings expected to improve over the next few years - also tied to India's industrial growth.

Rikki Malik

Hong Kong Connect Flows (November): Alibaba, Xiaomi

We estimate inflows into Hong Kong stocks via Southbound connect scheme amount to USD 17.7 bn in November. Inflows were led by Alibaba, Xiaomi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong...

David Mudd

SSE50 Index Rebalance: 4 Changes a Side & US$2.2bn Trade

There are 4 changes for the SSE50 Index in Dec. Dawning is the surprise addition and could move closer to the merger ratio implied price. Estimated...

Brian Freitas

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