Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.</li><li>There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.</li><li>A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of Bt25.30, based on a required return of 9.1%.There is also very limited tactical upside, given that the stock price has risen 14% QTD and is trading above the 6-month historical average.A positive outlook is maintained for the performance over the next two years, with a strong EPS CAGR of +26% during 2024-26E, driven by a significant increase in land transfer revenue.

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

<ul><li>Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.</li><li>We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).</li><li>However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. </li></ul>

Given the high increase in 3Q24E presales, hitting a new quarterly record, with 9M24E presales reaching 2,000 rai, exceeding our previous estimates, we have raised our presale forecasts for 2024- 26E and increased the projected transfers due to the substantial backlog of 3,500 rai.We estimate core profit for 2024-26E to grow strongly, with a CAGR of +26%, and have revised our fair value (FV) to Bt25.30 (previously at Bt21.50), based on a required return of 9.1% (8.0% previously).However, the market price has already risen, having priced in the significant presales increase to a certain degree. 

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new 12M FV of Bt21.50 (down from Bt28.30) following the downward revisions to our 2024-25E earnings forecasts, though we maintain the required return at 8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.</li><li>While the tactical upside is limited, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with expected 2024-26E earnings growth at a CAGR of +11%.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating to Neutral (from Outperform), with a new 12M FV of Bt21.50 (down from Bt28.30) following the downward revisions to our 2024-25E earnings forecasts, though we maintain the required return at 8%.The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.While the tactical upside is limited, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with expected 2024-26E earnings growth at a CAGR of +11%.

Amata Corporation - Revised Down Forecasts Given Slow Transfers and a Low GPM from IE Business

<ul><li>KTX sees potential upside to our presales projection, and the land transfer duration is likely to be shortened. The 2Q24E core profit is expected to have grown well YoY.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is attractive, and the long-term earnings prospects are strong; however, the tactical upside is very limited.</li><li>We therefore maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt28.30 (vs. Bt28.00 previously), based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 8% following the adjustment to the beta (in line with the adjustments to our macroeconomic variables).</li></ul>

KTX sees potential upside to our presales projection, and the land transfer duration is likely to be shortened. The 2Q24E core profit is expected to have grown well YoY.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is attractive, and the long-term earnings prospects are strong; however, the tactical upside is very limited.We therefore maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt28.30 (vs. Bt28.00 previously), based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 8% following the adjustment to the beta (in line with the adjustments to our macroeconomic variables).

Amata Corporation - Expect 2Q24E Earnings to Increase YoY; Possible Upside to Presales

<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on AMATA with an Outperform rating and a 12M FV of Bt28.00, based on a required return of 7.9% (reflecting a PER target of 12.6x).</li><li>Presales will remain high at 1.7k and 1.6k rai in the next one to two years as a positive outcome of geopolitical risks and increased US tariffs in 2024-26E, encouraging production base relocations toward ASEAN.</li><li>In addition, AMATA has a huge backlog worth Bt14bn, expected to equate to land sales of 2.4k rai. This should help boost transfers and core profit growth going forward.</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on AMATA with an Outperform rating and a 12M FV of Bt28.00, based on a required return of 7.9% (reflecting a PER target of 12.6x).Presales will remain high at 1.7k and 1.6k rai in the next one to two years as a positive outcome of geopolitical risks and increased US tariffs in 2024-26E, encouraging production base relocations toward ASEAN.In addition, AMATA has a huge backlog worth Bt14bn, expected to equate to land sales of 2.4k rai. This should help boost transfers and core profit growth going forward.

Amata Corporation - High Presales and Backlog Lead to Consistent Growth in Core Profit

Thailand

Amata Corporation is a leading developer and operator of industrial estates, specializing in planning, developing, managing, and marketing integrated industrial cities. The company also provides industrial utilities such as power, water, and natural gas. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on March 6, 1989.

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Amata Corporation (AMATA TB)

Amata Corporation - In-Line Profit; Concerns over Declining GPM for Industrial Estates

We maintain a Neutral rating, with a negative view on the fundamentals as the current stock price shows 11% downside from the 12M FWD fair value of...

Krungthai XSpring

AMATA CORPORATION - Expect Record-High Presales in 3Q24E, with Further Growth in 2025E

The current valuation indicates downside of approximately -11% alongside very limited upside tactically. Hence, we maintain a Neutral rating.

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - Revised Down Forecasts Given Slow Transfers and a Low GPM from IE Business

The valuation metrics indicate that the recent share price increase has reduced the stock's attractiveness, reflecting significant downside of -9%.

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - Expect 2Q24E Earnings to Increase YoY; Possible Upside to Presales

KTX sees potential upside to our presales projection, and the land transfer duration is likely to be shortened. The 2Q24E core profit is expected...

Krungthai XSpring

Amata Corporation - High Presales and Backlog Lead to Consistent Growth in Core Profit

We initiate our coverage on AMATA with an Outperform rating and a 12M FV of Bt28.00, based on a required return of 7.9% (reflecting a PER target of...

Krungthai XSpring

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