Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 18th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Airports of Thailand, Intouch, Gulf Energy Development, Home Product Center, Advanced Info Service, Airports Of Thailand, Gulf Energy Development, Advanced Info Service.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jul 18th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Airports of Thailand, Intouch, Gulf Energy Development, Home Product Center, Advanced Info Service, Airports Of Thailand, Gulf Energy Development, Advanced Info Service.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 18th): Airports of Thailand, Intouch, Gulf Energy Development

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wha-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:104:1" rel="noopener">WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy. </li>
</ul>



Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) will replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and JMT Network Services (JMT TB) in the SET 50 Index in June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy. 


SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we forecast two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wha-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:104:1" rel="noopener">WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a> is a very close delete on market cap, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> is a close delete on liquidity. Multiple possibilities here.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we forecast two changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the June rebalance.

Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) could replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB).

JMT Network Services (JMT TB) is a very close delete on market cap, while Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is a close delete on liquidity. Multiple possibilities here.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes - One High Probability; One Has Possibilities

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 39

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

In constructing our new portfolio, we have largely avoided low-liquidity small cap stocks with the exception of two outstanding ones (STEC, MAJOR). PTT is simply a geopolitical play on higher oil prices. The other top picks for 2020 can be broken down into three sub-groups:<ul>
<li>
Beneficiaries of tourism &amp; consumption recovery are the biggest group, including AOT, BTS, and CPALL. All three continue to expand their networks. China's economic recovery and resumption of outbound tourism benefit these large cap stocks.</li>
<li>
Resumption of investment activity. Siam Cement and the well connected STEC will benefit from the government's increases in government infrastructure. Likewise shall be the case of Bangkok Bank, which has traditionally focused on corporate banking.</li>
<li>
Future plays. China has important plans for Thailand as a logistical hub; this will benefit Amata. True Corp benefits from a host of new catalysts in 2019 whose benefits will carry over to 2020 and beyond.</li>
</ul>

In constructing our new portfolio, we have largely avoided low-liquidity small cap stocks with the exception of two outstanding ones (STEC, MAJOR). PTT is simply a geopolitical play on higher oil prices. The other top picks for 2020 can be broken down into three sub-groups:

Beneficiaries of tourism &amp; consumption recovery are the biggest group, including AOT, BTS, and CPALL. All three continue to expand their networks. China's economic recovery and resumption of outbound tourism benefit these large cap stocks.

Resumption of investment activity. Siam Cement and the well connected STEC will benefit from the government's increases in government infrastructure. Likewise shall be the case of Bangkok Bank, which has traditionally focused on corporate banking.

Future plays. China has important plans for Thailand as a logistical hub; this will benefit Amata. True Corp benefits from a host of new catalysts in 2019 whose benefits will carry over to 2020 and beyond.


Thai Strategy 2020 (Part 3): Top 10 Stock Picks

Thailand

Amata Corporation is a leading developer and operator of industrial estates, specializing in planning, developing, managing, and marketing integrated industrial cities. The company also provides industrial utilities such as power, water, and natural gas. It is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on March 6, 1989.

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Amata Corporation (AMATA TB)

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jul 18th): Airports of Thailand, Intouch, Gulf Energy Development

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Airports of Thailand (AOT TB), Intouch (INTUCH...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT

TLI & WHA will replace JMART & JMT in the SET50 on 30 June. Passive trackers will need to buy 3.4% of the float on TLI. The adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes - One High Probability; One Has Possibilities

There could be 2 changes in June. +TLI/-JMART is the high probability change. +WHA is medium probability. JMT/TIDLOR could be the second delete....

Brian Freitas

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 39

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, five new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Thai Strategy 2020 (Part 3): Top 10 Stock Picks

In constructing our new portfolio, we have largely avoided low-liquidity small cap stocks with the exception of two outstanding ones (STEC, MAJOR)....

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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