Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

AMC Entertainment Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The cinema industry in the United States is declining, but there are many prospects that show a positive performance of cinemas in the future.</li><li>In this space, AMC Entertainment Holdings has questionably been one of the most accepted stocks of 2021.</li><li>The sustained interest from those buyers has increased AMC's stock price by a quadruple-digit rate in 2021 after a long, short squeeze story.</li></ul>

The cinema industry in the United States is declining, but there are many prospects that show a positive performance of cinemas in the future.In this space, AMC Entertainment Holdings has questionably been one of the most accepted stocks of 2021.The sustained interest from those buyers has increased AMC's stock price by a quadruple-digit rate in 2021 after a long, short squeeze story.

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. - Investment Thesis

Insurance, Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance, Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Robinhood Markets  / Equity Capital Markets

Sheerly looking at Robinhood’s recent financial performance, one might conclude it has embarked on an impressive growth journey and could be a recent success story of Silicon Valley.The payment for order flow generates the majority of its revenue as it sells the clients’ orders to the market makers to fill. As such, Robinhood’s revenue still depends heavily on the users’ trading frequency and volume even though it doesn’t take any commission out of the trades.The company’s rumored IPO valuation of $40 billion represents a significant premium to its peers. It is hard to justify such a premium since it is difficult to gauge Robinhood’s future growth which is largely dependent on its users’ trading frequency and volume in the future.In addition to the company’s over-reliance on the payment for order flow and its potentially rich valuation, there are also significant regulatory concerns. The downside risk is simply too high and outweighs any growth potential the company could still have in the long run.

Sheerly looking at Robinhood’s recent financial performance, one might conclude it has embarked on an impressive growth journey and could be a recent success story of Silicon Valley.The payment for order flow generates the majority of its revenue as it sells the clients’ orders to the market makers to fill. As such, Robinhood’s revenue still depends heavily on the users’ trading frequency and volume even though it doesn’t take any commission out of the trades.The company’s rumored IPO valuation of $40 billion represents a significant premium to its peers. It is hard to justify such a premium since it is difficult to gauge Robinhood’s future growth which is largely dependent on its users’ trading frequency and volume in the future.In addition to the company’s over-reliance on the payment for order flow and its potentially rich valuation, there are also significant regulatory concerns. The downside risk is simply too high and outweighs any growth potential the company could still have in the long run.

Robinhood IPO: Downside Risk Could Outweigh Any Potential Future Upside

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Some updated thinking on our shorts: We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Well, safe as it ever gets. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while Disney we flip from long biased to short biased as Disney+ subscriber numbers have decelerated massively. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </div>

Some updated thinking on our shorts: We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Well, safe as it ever gets. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while Disney we flip from long biased to short biased as Disney+ subscriber numbers have decelerated massively. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<blockquote>Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. (Jim Cramer)</blockquote>This is a follow-up report to our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gamestop-robinhood-debacle-what-does-it-mean-for-asia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47604" rel="noopener">GameStop &amp; Robinhood Debacle - What Does It Mean for Asia?</a> 2020 was a great year for the major global stock markets such as the NASDAQ, KOSPI, and Nikkei. Thus so far in 2021, perhaps the biggest story in the global financial markets has been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gamestop-corp-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13790:1" rel="noopener">GameStop Corp Class A (GME US)</a> whose stock price has risen 1,094% YTD, even after a 50%+ decline in share price from its all time highs on 28 January 2021. Despite the phenomenon that has occurred on GameStop, it is worthwhile to understand the bigger picture. In other words, is GameStop really a one-off stock specific event or are there SIGNS in the market that suggest further volatility and concerns? <div class="content-highlight">In addition to the 50 restricted stocks by Robinhood, there is a whole category of the China ADRs which have certainly shown evidence of frothiness this year as nearly 20 stocks among the top 100 market cap China ADRs are up on average 86% YTD. Did the fundamentals of these China ADRs really improve that much in the past month to warrant such a huge run-up in price? We do not think so. </div>

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. (Jim Cramer)This is a follow-up report to our insight GameStop &amp; Robinhood Debacle - What Does It Mean for Asia? 2020 was a great year for the major global stock markets such as the NASDAQ, KOSPI, and Nikkei. Thus so far in 2021, perhaps the biggest story in the global financial markets has been GameStop Corp Class A (GME US) whose stock price has risen 1,094% YTD, even after a 50%+ decline in share price from its all time highs on 28 January 2021. Despite the phenomenon that has occurred on GameStop, it is worthwhile to understand the bigger picture. In other words, is GameStop really a one-off stock specific event or are there SIGNS in the market that suggest further volatility and concerns? In addition to the 50 restricted stocks by Robinhood, there is a whole category of the China ADRs which have certainly shown evidence of frothiness this year as nearly 20 stocks among the top 100 market cap China ADRs are up on average 86% YTD. Did the fundamentals of these China ADRs really improve that much in the past month to warrant such a huge run-up in price? We do not think so. 

Surging China ADRs - The Next Battleground for the Reddit Army or Signs of a Market Top?

Last week, we wrote about how Third Point's Dan Loeb wrote a letter to Disney urging it to spend more on content. Within days, the company announced a major reorganization of its content creation and distribution strategy, with an emphasis on focusing on DTC (streaming). We applaud the move...and think Disney becomes an even more compelling long as it plays catchup to the rest of the "COVID winners" from its position in the COVID loser camp. We have a catalyst path to follow now...earnings in November, Analyst Day on December 10th. Stock will be $150 by then. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Last week, we wrote about how Third Point's Dan Loeb wrote a letter to Disney urging it to spend more on content. Within days, the company announced a major reorganization of its content creation and distribution strategy, with an emphasis on focusing on DTC (streaming). We applaud the move...and think Disney becomes an even more compelling long as it plays catchup to the rest of the "COVID winners" from its position in the COVID loser camp. We have a catalyst path to follow now...earnings in November, Analyst Day on December 10th. Stock will be $150 by then. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides theatrical exhibition, movie screening, food distribution, online ticket booking, and other related services. AMC Entertainment offers movie theaters worldwide.

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AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC US)

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. - Investment Thesis

The cinema industry in the United States is declining, but there are many prospects that show a positive performance of cinemas in the future. In...

Baptista Research

Robinhood IPO: Downside Risk Could Outweigh Any Potential Future Upside

Although Robinhood had an impressive growth in recent years, the downside risk, in relation to its over-reliance on PFOF and the regulatory...

Alec Tseung

2H21 Obex Research Short Portfolio

We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while...

Aaron Gabin

Surging China ADRs - The Next Battleground for the Reddit Army or Signs of a Market Top?

In addition to the 50 restricted stocks by Robinhood, there is a whole category of the China ADRs which have certainly shown evidence of frothiness...

Douglas Kim

Disney: They Listened to Loeb (Quickly!)

Disney's reorganization announcement of its content and distribution organizations is signal that management has been listening to investors.

Aaron Gabin

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