Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Again, Tesla reports a 1Q24 sales with 4% miss but post market share price up more than 10% for 6 reasons. 1. Gross margin was stable on 15% sales drop;</li>
<li>2. ASP was stable; 3. Affordable EV on track for 2025; 4. Factory expansion to slow; 5. Optimus to sell end of 2025; 6. 2024 EV shipment higher than 2023.</li>
<li>
<strong>Near term risks to remain</strong>: 1. When will margin trough? 2. Why bother to buy EV if 2nd hand market collapsing? 3. Will Robotaxi/FSD bring in meaningful sales/profits soon?</li>
</ul>


Again, Tesla reports a 1Q24 sales with 4% miss but post market share price up more than 10% for 6 reasons. 1. Gross margin was stable on 15% sales drop;
2. ASP was stable; 3. Affordable EV on track for 2025; 4. Factory expansion to slow; 5. Optimus to sell end of 2025; 6. 2024 EV shipment higher than 2023.

Near term risks to remain: 1. When will margin trough? 2. Why bother to buy EV if 2nd hand market collapsing? 3. Will Robotaxi/FSD bring in meaningful sales/profits soon?


Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

<ul>
<li>Plunging sales &amp; growing losses, severe price cuts &amp; layoffs, failed FSD, M2 dropped for Robotaxi, and more, confirm that Elon Musk won't fix Tesla's most serious problems—which he created.</li>
<li>He still demands his "unfathomable" pay package be restored, and his feckless, captured Tesla Board is doing exactly what he wants.</li>
<li>But what Tesla’s Board should do, what it should have done years ago, is fire Elon Musk, the single greatest risk to Tesla’s future.</li>
</ul>


Plunging sales &amp; growing losses, severe price cuts &amp; layoffs, failed FSD, M2 dropped for Robotaxi, and more, confirm that Elon Musk won't fix Tesla's most serious problems—which he created.
He still demands his "unfathomable" pay package be restored, and his feckless, captured Tesla Board is doing exactly what he wants.
But what Tesla’s Board should do, what it should have done years ago, is fire Elon Musk, the single greatest risk to Tesla’s future.


Tesla's Won't Fix It's Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Tesla Motors (TSLA US) sold one car in January 2024 in South Korea. In comparison, Tesla sold 1,022 vehicles in December 2023 and 13,885 units in 2023.</li>
<li>The key reason for the sharp plunge in vehicle sales in January has been due to the government's slashing EV subsidies for vehicles with Chinese LFP based batteries.</li>
<li>Furthermore, many consumers avoided buying Tesla vehicles in January as they waited for the government's announcements of new EV subsidies. </li>
</ul>


Tesla Motors (TSLA US) sold one car in January 2024 in South Korea. In comparison, Tesla sold 1,022 vehicles in December 2023 and 13,885 units in 2023.
The key reason for the sharp plunge in vehicle sales in January has been due to the government's slashing EV subsidies for vehicles with Chinese LFP based batteries.
Furthermore, many consumers avoided buying Tesla vehicles in January as they waited for the government's announcements of new EV subsidies. 


Tesla Sold A Whopping One Car in January in South Korea

<ul>
<li>Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla's expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y</li>
<li>This doesn't square with Tesla's explanation that sales were hurt by ongoing production issues—much like when the company used the same excuse for the disappointing Q3 2023. </li>
<li>This time deliveries were much lower, the miss versus market expectations much worse, and the deep well of unsold inventories even more formidable.</li>
</ul>


Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla's expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y
This doesn't square with Tesla's explanation that sales were hurt by ongoing production issues—much like when the company used the same excuse for the disappointing Q3 2023. 
This time deliveries were much lower, the miss versus market expectations much worse, and the deep well of unsold inventories even more formidable.


<ul>
<li>You know it's bad when Tesla's delivery trends blow through even my lowest estimates, which already had trailed market projections.</li>
<li>With no help from the hapless CyberTruck which, not surprisingly, continues to shoot Tesla in the foot.</li>
<li>See my latest Q1 and full-year estimates—which still prove to be too high.</li>
</ul>


You know it's bad when Tesla's delivery trends blow through even my lowest estimates, which already had trailed market projections.
With no help from the hapless CyberTruck which, not surprisingly, continues to shoot Tesla in the foot.
See my latest Q1 and full-year estimates—which still prove to be too high.


United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

Tesla (TSLA US)

Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?

Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%? Tesla reports a 1Q24 sales with 4% miss but post market share price up more than 10% for 6 reasons.

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Tesla's Won't Fix It's Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge

Elon Musk won't fix Tesla's most serious problems—which he created—and he still demands "unfathomable" pay. The solution is to remove Tesla's...

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Tesla Sold A Whopping One Car in January in South Korea

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Tesla Q1 Deliveries: Look Out Below

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Tesla Q1 Trends: Rockslide

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