Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep quality play Maybank on the buy list and switch our prior buy RHB for CIMB</li>
<li>CIMB is our value pick for its undemanding PE and PBV whilst second from top in post-provision profitability; its credit quality is improving, a positive trend we expect will continue</li>
<li>We maintain quality pick Maybank as a buy for its relatively undemanding valuations, and strong balance sheet credentials in terms of credit quality and capital adequacy</li>
</ul>


Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep quality play Maybank on the buy list and switch our prior buy RHB for CIMB
CIMB is our value pick for its undemanding PE and PBV whilst second from top in post-provision profitability; its credit quality is improving, a positive trend we expect will continue
We maintain quality pick Maybank as a buy for its relatively undemanding valuations, and strong balance sheet credentials in terms of credit quality and capital adequacy


Malaysian Banks Screener; Value Pick CIMB Has Momentum, Maybank Is the Quality Pick

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ANZ Funds is looking to raise around US$242m from selling a portion of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a>.</li>
<li>Having written down its carrying value earlier, we would argue that the deal now is somewhat well flagged, with ANZ attempting to record some gains on investment.</li>
<li>That being said, there is an overhang and the deal would be a large one to digest at 111 days of AMBank’s three month ADV.</li>
</ul>


ANZ Funds is looking to raise around US$242m from selling a portion of its stake in AMMB Holdings (AMM MK).
Having written down its carrying value earlier, we would argue that the deal now is somewhat well flagged, with ANZ attempting to record some gains on investment.
That being said, there is an overhang and the deal would be a large one to digest at 111 days of AMBank’s three month ADV.


AAMB Holdings Placement - Despite the Overhang, Momentum Has Been Decent

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Galaxy Securities (H) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The ACCC has decided not to authorize the ANZ takeover of Suncorp-Metway Bank</li>
<li>Can be positive for ANZ without executive risk, integration costs, unknown new risks</li>
<li>Differentiator ANZ to peers its islessor exposure to Australia, and better credit metrics</li>
</ul>


The ACCC has decided not to authorize the ANZ takeover of Suncorp-Metway Bank
Can be positive for ANZ without executive risk, integration costs, unknown new risks
Differentiator ANZ to peers its islessor exposure to Australia, and better credit metrics


ANZ - ACCC Denies ANZ's Takeover of Suncorp, May Be Positive for ANZ After All

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ql-resources-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11221:1" rel="noopener">Ql Resources (QLG MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hartalega-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10230:1" rel="noopener">Hartalega Holdings (HART MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>If the changes go through, glove makers will have no representation in the index. At one point in 2020, glove makers made up nearly 20% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">FBMKLCI INDEX</a>.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover at the rebalance will be around 3% and the impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions as compared to the deletions.</li>
</ul>



Ql Resources (QLG MK) and AMMB Holdings (AMM MK) could replace Hartalega Holdings (HART MK) and Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX).
If the changes go through, glove makers will have no representation in the index. At one point in 2020, glove makers made up nearly 20% of the FBMKLCI INDEX.
One-Way turnover at the rebalance will be around 3% and the impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions as compared to the deletions.


KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: No More Glovemakers in the Index (Or How the Mighty Have Fallen)

Malaysia

AMMB Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides merchant and commercial banking, retail financing, stock and futures broking, and investment advisory. AMMB also underwrites general insurance, provides asset and unit trust management, and nominees services.

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AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)

Malaysian Banks Screener; Value Pick CIMB Has Momentum, Maybank Is the Quality Pick

Maybank remains the quality buy, with its strong balance sheet; CIMB replaces RHB Bank as the new value pick given CIMB's improving credit quality...

Victor Galliano

AAMB Holdings Placement - Despite the Overhang, Momentum Has Been Decent

ANZ is looking to raise around US$242m from a portion of its stake in AMMB Holdings (AMM MK). Having written down its carrying value earlier, we...

Clarence Chu

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

There are 364 adds/325 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 45% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

ANZ - ACCC Denies ANZ's Takeover of Suncorp, May Be Positive for ANZ After All

ACCC denies ANZ takeover of Suncorp, which can be positive for ANZ. Focus now on its better credit metrics, less Australia lending than peers and...

Daniel Tabbush

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: No More Glovemakers in the Index (Or How the Mighty Have Fallen)

QL Resources and AMMB could replace Top Glove and Hartalega in the KLCI. That would mean no glove makers in the index, down from a near 20% index...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Malaysian Banks Screener; Value Pick CIMB Has Momentum, Maybank Is the Quality Pick

​Maybank remains the quality buy, with its strong balance sheet; CIMB replaces RHB Bank as the new value pick given CIMB's improving credit quality...

Victor Galliano

AAMB Holdings Placement - Despite the Overhang, Momentum Has Been Decent

ANZ is looking to raise around US$242m from a portion of its stake in AMMB Holdings (AMM MK). Having written down its carrying value earlier, we...

Clarence Chu

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

There are 364 adds/325 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 45% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

ANZ - ACCC Denies ANZ's Takeover of Suncorp, May Be Positive for ANZ After All

ACCC denies ANZ takeover of Suncorp, which can be positive for ANZ. Focus now on its better credit metrics, less Australia lending than peers and...

Daniel Tabbush

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: No More Glovemakers in the Index (Or How the Mighty Have Fallen)

QL Resources and AMMB could replace Top Glove and Hartalega in the KLCI. That would mean no glove makers in the index, down from a near 20% index...

Brian Freitas

Maybank remains the quality buy, with its strong balance sheet; CIMB replaces RHB Bank as the new value pick given CIMB's improving credit quality...