Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

Amorepacific Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 1Q 2024. </li>
<li>We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 26 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and 12 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 1Q 2024. 
We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.
Of the 38 pair trades, 26 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and 12 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2024

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If you are still long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hokuhoku-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19006:1" rel="noopener">Financial Group (8377 JP)</a> from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness</li>
<li>Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a> announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI (9433 JP)</a> shares (after an AGM disaster).</li>
</ul>


If you are still long the Financial Group (8377 JP) from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness
Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Kyocera (6971 JP) announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI (9433 JP) shares (after an AGM disaster).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

<ul>
<li>Both the implied stub for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12179:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Group (002790 KS)</a> and the simple ratio (Group/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a>) are around lifetime low levels. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Amorepacific are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Both the implied stub for Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) and the simple ratio (Group/Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)) are around lifetime low levels. 
Preceding my comments on Amorepacific are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld's: Amorepacific's Multi-Year Lows

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide the major changes in NPS' stakes in 25 Korean companies in 3Q 2023.</li>
<li>In 3Q 2023, NPS reduced its stakes in the IT, construction, and contents related stocks. On the other hand, NPS increased its stakes in China's re-opening and cosmetics related stocks.</li>
<li>Five Korean cosmetics stocks that NPS net purchased in 3Q 2023 are up on average 12.8% from end of June 2023 to as of 6 October 2023. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide the major changes in NPS' stakes in 25 Korean companies in 3Q 2023.
In 3Q 2023, NPS reduced its stakes in the IT, construction, and contents related stocks. On the other hand, NPS increased its stakes in China's re-opening and cosmetics related stocks.
Five Korean cosmetics stocks that NPS net purchased in 3Q 2023 are up on average 12.8% from end of June 2023 to as of 6 October 2023. 


Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2023. Typically, fourth quarter is when pref stocks are emphasized the most in Korea.</li>
<li>The excessive gaps in the preferred and common shares of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hotel Shilla (008770 KS), and Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) could reverse in the next several months.</li>
<li>We see some attractive longer-term opportunities for Amorepacific, Doosan Fuel Cell, LG Electronics, and Hyundai Motor which have especially high discounts for the preferred shares versus their counterpart common shares.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2023. Typically, fourth quarter is when pref stocks are emphasized the most in Korea.
The excessive gaps in the preferred and common shares of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Hotel Shilla (008770 KS), and Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) could reverse in the next several months.
We see some attractive longer-term opportunities for Amorepacific, Doosan Fuel Cell, LG Electronics, and Hyundai Motor which have especially high discounts for the preferred shares versus their counterpart common shares.


Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023

South Korea

AMOREPACIFIC Holdings Corp. produces cosmetics. The Company manufactures skin care products, makeup, shampoo, and other products. AMOREPACIFIC Holdings conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Amorepacific Holdings (002790 KS)

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld's: Amorepacific's Multi-Year Lows

Both the implied stub for Group and the simple ratio (Group/Corp) are at lifetime low levels. Look to set up the stub here - long Group, short...

David Blennerhassett

What Did NPS Buy and Sell in 3Q 2023?

In this insight, we provide the major changes in NPS' stakes in 25 Korean companies in 3Q 2023. In 3Q 2023, NPS reduced its stakes in the IT,...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld's: Amorepacific's Multi-Year Lows

Both the implied stub for Group and the simple ratio (Group/Corp) are at lifetime low levels. Look to set up the stub here - long Group, short...

David Blennerhassett

What Did NPS Buy and Sell in 3Q 2023?

In this insight, we provide the major changes in NPS' stakes in 25 Korean companies in 3Q 2023. In 3Q 2023, NPS reduced its stakes in the IT,...

Douglas Kim

Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2023

In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2023. Typically, fourth quarter is when pref...

Douglas Kim