Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Auto &amp; Industrial Semi long boom / bust cycle started during Covid (peak demand) and is ending soon. Revenues declined by -20%. Operating Profits are depressed, down -50% from peak.   </li>
<li>Industry structure, high fragmentation, low transparency led to a protracted and steep bottom. But inventories remain high. The recovery will take time, probably no YoY revenue growth till 2026.   </li>
<li>Two big restructuring are underway, the sector is rationalizing. Lofty expectations of “structural growth” (EV, ADAS, green energy growth) hit the wall of a disappointing reality amplified by trade wars.</li>
</ul>


Auto &amp; Industrial Semi long boom / bust cycle started during Covid (peak demand) and is ending soon. Revenues declined by -20%. Operating Profits are depressed, down -50% from peak.   
Industry structure, high fragmentation, low transparency led to a protracted and steep bottom. But inventories remain high. The recovery will take time, probably no YoY revenue growth till 2026.   
Two big restructuring are underway, the sector is rationalizing. Lofty expectations of “structural growth” (EV, ADAS, green energy growth) hit the wall of a disappointing reality amplified by trade wars.


Auto & Industrial Semi Part1: Background of the Ongoing Crash, Revising Down Lofty Expectations

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.</li><li>Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.</li><li>This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. </li></ul>

Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. 

<ul><li>The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.</li><li>Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.</li><li>Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.</li></ul>

The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.</li>
<li>Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.</li>
<li>We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months</li>
</ul>


Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.
Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.
We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months


Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Analog Devices reported its second quarter of fiscal 2026 results with record revenue of $3.62 billion, surpassing the high end of guidance by a notable margin.</li><li>The company posted a 15% sequential and 37% year-over-year revenue increase, driven primarily by growth in industrial and data center segments.</li><li>Industrial revenue, accounting for half of total sales, grew 20% sequentially and 56% annually, buoyed by strong demand in aerospace and defense, automated test equipment (ATE), electronic test and measurement (ETM), and the broad industrial market.</li></ul>

Analog Devices reported its second quarter of fiscal 2026 results with record revenue of $3.62 billion, surpassing the high end of guidance by a notable margin.The company posted a 15% sequential and 37% year-over-year revenue increase, driven primarily by growth in industrial and data center segments.Industrial revenue, accounting for half of total sales, grew 20% sequentially and 56% annually, buoyed by strong demand in aerospace and defense, automated test equipment (ATE), electronic test and measurement (ETM), and the broad industrial market.

Analog Devices’ $5 Billion Shareholder Return: Confidence Signal Or Cycle Peak?

United States

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits used in analog and digital signal processing.  The Company's products are used in communications, computer, industrial, instrumentation, military/aerospace, automotive, and high-performance consumer electronics applications.  Analog Devices sells its products worldwide.

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Analog Devices (ADI US)

Auto & Industrial Semi Part1: Background of the Ongoing Crash, Revising Down Lofty Expectations

Auto & Industrial Semi close to end of long boom/bust cycle, with revenues down -20%. Recovery expected to be slow with no YoY growth till 2026....

Nicolas Baratte

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Top foundries see worse than expected automotive wafer sales, implying more automotive supply chain members are going to miss earnings expectation...

Andrew Lu

Analog Devices’ $5 Billion Shareholder Return: Confidence Signal Or Cycle Peak?

Analog Devices reported its second quarter of fiscal 2026 results with record revenue of $3.62 billion, surpassing the high end of guidance by a...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Auto & Industrial Semi Part1: Background of the Ongoing Crash, Revising Down Lofty Expectations

​Auto & Industrial Semi close to end of long boom/bust cycle, with revenues down -20%. Recovery expected to be slow with no YoY growth till 2026....

Nicolas Baratte

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Top foundries see worse than expected automotive wafer sales, implying more automotive supply chain members are going to miss earnings expectation...

Andrew Lu

Analog Devices’ $5 Billion Shareholder Return: Confidence Signal Or Cycle Peak?

Analog Devices reported its second quarter of fiscal 2026 results with record revenue of $3.62 billion, surpassing the high end of guidance by a...

Baptista Research

Auto & Industrial Semi close to end of long boom/bust cycle, with revenues down -20%. Recovery expected to be slow with no YoY growth till 2026....