Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Shougang Fushan Resources / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shougang-fushan-resources-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19494:1" rel="noopener">Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK)</a> is a play on strengthening coking coal prices with downside protection due to its net cash reserves of 1.1 bn USD (Vs. Mkt Cap 2.1).</li>
<li>At the lower end of the cost curve, its EBITDA margins have averaged 54% (last 16 years), with its lowest EBITDA number of 19% in FY15.</li>
<li>With an 80% payout, the company trades at a trailing yield of 9% (the average spot price assumed is 1900 RMB/ton).</li>
</ul>



Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) is a play on strengthening coking coal prices with downside protection due to its net cash reserves of 1.1 bn USD (Vs. Mkt Cap 2.1).
At the lower end of the cost curve, its EBITDA margins have averaged 54% (last 16 years), with its lowest EBITDA number of 19% in FY15.
With an 80% payout, the company trades at a trailing yield of 9% (the average spot price assumed is 1900 RMB/ton).


Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>In this note we show flow estimates based on passive AUM tracking and hedging the Capped Top 40 SWIX (DCAP), Top 40 SWIX (DTOP &amp; TOPI) and Capped ALSI SWIX.</li><li>Relative to the March rebalance, we expect turnover in the closing auction to be much lower.</li><li>Turnover for the day was R59bn, R44bn traded in the closing auction (harmonisation implemented).</li></ul>

In this note we show flow estimates based on passive AUM tracking and hedging the Capped Top 40 SWIX (DCAP), Top 40 SWIX (DTOP &amp; TOPI) and Capped ALSI SWIX.Relative to the March rebalance, we expect turnover in the closing auction to be much lower.Turnover for the day was R59bn, R44bn traded in the closing auction (harmonisation implemented).

DMA | JSE June '24 Rebalance: Estimated Flows (Buys: Banks, Sells: NPN, PRX)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 4 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">MMG (1208 HK)</a> announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.</li>
<li>Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. </li>
<li>MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.</li>
</ul>


On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.


<ul><li>On Friday, JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction.</li><li>There will be no constituent changes to the Top 40, FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI indices (ALSI gets reviewed in March and September).</li><li>The upcoming rebalance will be the first review since the vanilla and SWIX indices were merged in March</li></ul>

On Friday, JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction.There will be no constituent changes to the Top 40, FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI indices (ALSI gets reviewed in March and September).The upcoming rebalance will be the first review since the vanilla and SWIX indices were merged in March

JSE June '24 Rebalance: Top Buys (Banks!) And Sells (NPN, PRX)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">Mmg Ltd (1208 HK)</a> will raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every 5 existing shares rights offering. The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP.</li>
<li>The rights proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, which will allow it to use other funds to better support the ongoing development of the operating mines.</li>
<li>MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights date. The shares go ex-rights on 11 June, and the rights start trading from 24 June to 2 July (inclusive).</li>
</ul>



Mmg Ltd (1208 HK) will raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every 5 existing shares rights offering. The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP.
The rights proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, which will allow it to use other funds to better support the ongoing development of the operating mines.
MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights date. The shares go ex-rights on 11 June, and the rights start trading from 24 June to 2 July (inclusive).


MMG (1208 HK): US$1.2bn Highly Dilutive Rights Issue

South Africa

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese, and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds. Anglo American has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia.

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Anglo American (AGL SJ)

Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident

We highlight Fushan Energy (639 HK) as a way to play the recent Anglo-American coking coal mine disaster. Fushan is a pure play on coking coal,...

Sameer Taneja

DMA | JSE June '24 Rebalance: Estimated Flows (Buys: Banks, Sells: NPN, PRX)

In this note we show flow estimates based on passive AUM tracking and hedging the Capped Top 40 SWIX (DCAP), Top 40 SWIX (DTOP & TOPI) and...

DMA

MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

The rights start trading on 24 June. We expect MMG shares to claw back some losses over the rights trading period, particularly towards the end.

Arun George

JSE June '24 Rebalance: Top Buys (Banks!) And Sells (NPN, PRX)

On Friday, JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction. There will be no constituent changes to the Top 40, FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI...

DMA

MMG (1208 HK): US$1.2bn Highly Dilutive Rights Issue

The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP. Precedents suggest that MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights...

Arun George

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