Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consumer sectors in China are gaining more focus as the government lays out steps to increase domestic consumption.</li>
<li>Hong Kong markets performed well relative to region during recent market turmoil.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-reinsurance-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:993:1" rel="noopener">China Reinsurance (Group) (1508 HK)</a> experienced breakouts and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom (H) (728 HK)</a> had a breakdown. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a> is more positive.
</li>
</ul>


Consumer sectors in China are gaining more focus as the government lays out steps to increase domestic consumption.
Hong Kong markets performed well relative to region during recent market turmoil.

China Education Group (839 HK) and China Reinsurance (Group) (1508 HK) experienced breakouts and China Telecom (H) (728 HK) had a breakdown. Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK) is more positive.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 9)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15350:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement (1102 TT)</a>’s HK$3.22 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The scheme vote is on 26 August. </li>
<li>The IFA valiantly justifies that an offer materially below net cash is fair and reasonable. The crux of the justification lies in the fortuitous disclosure of material capex requirements.</li>
<li>While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates, retail opposition and unconvincing IFA report suggest a high chance of a deal break.</li>
</ul>



Asia Cement China (743 HK)’s IFA opines that Asia Cement (1102 TT)’s HK$3.22 privatisation offer is fair and reasonable. The scheme vote is on 26 August. 
The IFA valiantly justifies that an offer materially below net cash is fair and reasonable. The crux of the justification lies in the fortuitous disclosure of material capex requirements.
While no shareholder holds the 10% blocking stake, the high AGM minority participation rates, retail opposition and unconvincing IFA report suggest a high chance of a deal break.


Asia Cement China (743 HK): Scheme Vote on 26 August Has a High Deal Break Risk

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>A month out from cutoff for the September rebalance, we see one potential change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> is a potential inclusion while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> should be deleted from the ETF.</li>
<li>Shorts have been dropping in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> and are near their lows while increasing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A month out from cutoff for the September rebalance, we see one potential change for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US). 

China Tower (788 HK) is a potential inclusion while China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) should be deleted from the ETF.
Shorts have been dropping in China Tower (788 HK) and are near their lows while increasing in China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK). 


FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.</li>
<li>The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.</li>
<li>We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.</li>
</ul>


We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.
The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.
We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.


Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 12th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 12th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental

China

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 9)

HK markets had lower volatility than other regional markets this week. China Ed and China Re had technical break outs while China Tel broke...

David Mudd

Asia Cement China (743 HK): Scheme Vote on 26 August Has a High Deal Break Risk

The IMAX China precedent suggests that minorities can and will vote down a low-balled offer. The risk (12.5% downside to the undisturbed price)...

Arun George

FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible

There should be 1 change for the FXI ETF in Sep. There could be another change if Wuxi Apptec underperforms some of the other stocks by 3% over the...

Brian Freitas

Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

We see Anhui Conch at the cusp of earnings recovery cycle which will extend well into 2025 and beyond, driving P/B expansion from current 0.7x to...

Eric Chen

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 12th and highlight short interest changes in Tencent, Nongfu Spring,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 9)

HK markets had lower volatility than other regional markets this week. China Ed and China Re had technical break outs while China Tel broke...

David Mudd

Asia Cement China (743 HK): Scheme Vote on 26 August Has a High Deal Break Risk

The IMAX China precedent suggests that minorities can and will vote down a low-balled offer. The risk (12.5% downside to the undisturbed price)...

Arun George

FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible

There should be 1 change for the FXI ETF in Sep. There could be another change if Wuxi Apptec underperforms some of the other stocks by 3% over the...

Brian Freitas

Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

We see ​Anhui Conch at the cusp of earnings recovery cycle which will extend well into 2025 and beyond, driving P/B expansion from current 0.7x to...

Eric Chen

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Nongfu Spring, China Shenhua, Petrochina, New Oriental

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 12th and highlight short interest changes in Tencent, Nongfu Spring,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We see Anhui Conch at the cusp of earnings recovery cycle which will extend well into 2025 and beyond, driving P/B expansion from current 0.7x to...