Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Well, we won't know until later Q1, 2023. I don't share the complete confidence that the Sell Side consensus, we are in for the "China is Roaring Back" narrative.</li><li>With no transparency of Omicron spread, severe cases, fatalities, and genome sequencing, the current wave predictions are nothing short of "I believe it will boom" because it will.</li><li>The reopening was going to be hamstrung by the initial spread surge, given the sudden U-turn in policy and unpreparedness.</li></ul>

Well, we won't know until later Q1, 2023. I don't share the complete confidence that the Sell Side consensus, we are in for the "China is Roaring Back" narrative.With no transparency of Omicron spread, severe cases, fatalities, and genome sequencing, the current wave predictions are nothing short of "I believe it will boom" because it will.The reopening was going to be hamstrung by the initial spread surge, given the sudden U-turn in policy and unpreparedness.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Country Garden, and outflows from Meituan, ICBC, China Pacific, COSCO Shipping, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Country Garden, and outflows from Meituan, ICBC, China Pacific, COSCO Shipping, Xiaomi.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $7bn Inflows in November

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q22 is probably the worst quarter for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a> in this cycle. Demand has picked up sequentially, with 4Q22 average cement price up 7% QoQ.</li>
<li>It expects the spending of special purpose bond proceeds and possibly push forward of 2023 quotas to benefit infrastructure demand. The stabilisation of property market also helps.</li>
<li>Cost management efforts will soon pay off, providing room for recovery in margin. Solid financial position with net cash equals to 34.5% of share price is an added strength.</li>
</ul>


3Q22 is probably the worst quarter for Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK) in this cycle. Demand has picked up sequentially, with 4Q22 average cement price up 7% QoQ.
It expects the spending of special purpose bond proceeds and possibly push forward of 2023 quotas to benefit infrastructure demand. The stabilisation of property market also helps.
Cost management efforts will soon pay off, providing room for recovery in margin. Solid financial position with net cash equals to 34.5% of share price is an added strength.


Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): The Trough Looks to Be Behind Us

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The MTO in relation to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-miguel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22728:1" rel="noopener">San Miguel (SMC PM)</a>’s acquisition of 88.50% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eagle-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31217:1" rel="noopener">Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)</a>’s shares is open. The MTO will end on 5 December. </li>
<li>The MTO price is PHP22.02. The net MTO price after deducting the selling charges (0.621% of value) is estimated to be PHP21.8833. </li>
<li>At the current price and for the 14 December payment, the gross and annualised spread to the net MTO price is 1.8% and 19.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The MTO in relation to San Miguel (SMC PM)’s acquisition of 88.50% of Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)’s shares is open. The MTO will end on 5 December. 
The MTO price is PHP22.02. The net MTO price after deducting the selling charges (0.621% of value) is estimated to be PHP21.8833. 
At the current price and for the 14 December payment, the gross and annualised spread to the net MTO price is 1.8% and 19.2%, respectively.


Eagle Cement (EAGLE PM) MTO Open, Closing on 5 December

<ul>
<li>The regulator will not review <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-miguel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22728:1" rel="noopener">San Miguel (SMC PM)</a>’s SPA with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eagle-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31217:1" rel="noopener">Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)</a>’s selling shareholders to acquire their combined 88.50% stake at PHP22.02 per share.</li>
<li>We expected approval as the PCC, the regulator, previously viewed San Miguel and ECC as part of the same group. The next step is the execution of a definitive agreement.</li>
<li>The approval paves the way for an MTO of the remaining 11.50% minority shares at PHP22.02, likely next month. At the last close, the spread to the offer is 6.1%.</li>
</ul>


The regulator will not review San Miguel (SMC PM)’s SPA with Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)’s selling shareholders to acquire their combined 88.50% stake at PHP22.02 per share.
We expected approval as the PCC, the regulator, previously viewed San Miguel and ECC as part of the same group. The next step is the execution of a definitive agreement.
The approval paves the way for an MTO of the remaining 11.50% minority shares at PHP22.02, likely next month. At the last close, the spread to the offer is 6.1%.


Eagle Cement: Regulatory Approval Paves the Way for San Miguel’s MTO at PHP22.02

China

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)

What Will Drive China Recovery?

Well, we won't know until later Q1, 2023. I don't share the complete confidence that the Sell Side consensus, we are in for the "China is Roaring...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $7bn Inflows in November

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for November and highlight flows for Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Country Garden, Meituan, ICBC, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM