Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On May 13, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a> launched first drug, Xpovio in China as fourth-line treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. Xpovio has also been launched in South Korea, Australia, and Singapore.</li>
<li>Xpovio reported revenue of RMB54 million in H1 2022. Antengene has guided for 2022 revenue of RMB180–200 million from Xpovio.</li>
<li>Late-Line MM therapy market is small and dominated by blockbuster drugs and low-cost generic versions of erstwhile blockbuster drugs, indicating muted growth potential for Xpovio in its current approval status.</li>
</ul>


On May 13, Antengene (6996 HK) launched first drug, Xpovio in China as fourth-line treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. Xpovio has also been launched in South Korea, Australia, and Singapore.
Xpovio reported revenue of RMB54 million in H1 2022. Antengene has guided for 2022 revenue of RMB180–200 million from Xpovio.
Late-Line MM therapy market is small and dominated by blockbuster drugs and low-cost generic versions of erstwhile blockbuster drugs, indicating muted growth potential for Xpovio in its current approval status.


Antengene (6996 HK): First Drug Launched in Crowded Market of China Fails to Allure Investors

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>There’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in business model. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a> has to go all the way to the end. Otherwise, Antengene won't end up well.</li>
<li>Considering the pipeline quality/speed of clinical advancement/high cost of license-in/fierce competition/just APAC rights/limited cash balance, the biggest problem Antengene has to face is how to “survive this winter” .</li>
<li>Theoretically, Antengene is undervalued, so if willing to, investors could do short-term trade. However, due to the concerns, we are still bearish on Antengene’s outlook overall. </li>
</ul>


There’s an “insurmountable obstacle” to license-in business model. Antengene (6996 HK) has to go all the way to the end. Otherwise, Antengene won't end up well.
Considering the pipeline quality/speed of clinical advancement/high cost of license-in/fierce competition/just APAC rights/limited cash balance, the biggest problem Antengene has to face is how to “survive this winter” .
Theoretically, Antengene is undervalued, so if willing to, investors could do short-term trade. However, due to the concerns, we are still bearish on Antengene’s outlook overall. 


Antengene (6996.HK) 22H1-Defective Business Model and Uncompetitive Pipeline; Bearish on the Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.</li>
<li>Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.
Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 16th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc and CNOOC. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 16th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc and CNOOC. 


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 16th): Chinese Buying Wuxi Biologics After Biden's New Executive Order

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The national medical insurance negotiation is coming soon.</li>
<li>Last Friday, a new document about the VBP on insulin was released, and the bidding would start on November 26.</li>
<li>At some point next year, we may see some slowdown in the growth of investment and financing transmitted from the industry and primary market as well as a slowdown in the growth of CXO orders. </li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress on new drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a>Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.35%, while CSI 300 decreased 1.35% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure: Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
The national medical insurance negotiation is coming soon.
Last Friday, a new document about the VBP on insulin was released, and the bidding would start on November 26.
At some point next year, we may see some slowdown in the growth of investment and financing transmitted from the industry and primary market as well as a slowdown in the growth of CXO orders. 
Company news:News about the updated progress on new drugs of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) and Antengene (6996 HK)Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.35%, while CSI 300 decreased 1.35% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure: Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.5) - Final Two Domestic Policy Risks, Outlook of China CXO Industry

China

Antengene Corporation Limited operates as a specialty pharmaceutical company. The Company produces innovative drugs, selinexor, eltanexor, verdinexor, and other products. Antengene provides its services throughout China.

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Antengene (6996 HK)