Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/895/original/8300-WR-JBanks-2021-0628-ZeroSheFlies-TPNBNKvsTPXin2021.jpg?1624939811" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215895"></figure></section>

Data for May 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks continues to fall, led by the major banks where YoY loan growth is now in negative territory.  Loan growth at all banks fell to just +0.5% YoY at the end of May, according to the JBA (April was +2.6% YoY).  We expect that June data (to be released in mid-July) from the JBA and BoJ may reveal overall YoY loan growth is heading for the zero-level.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  The Topix Banks Index peaked at 162.08 on 19 March 2021  -  just 4 days after the notorious Ides of March ‘turning-point’ that we have often referred to in Smartkarma Insights on Japanese banks’ share price performance  -  and has softened to the 145 level.  The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance and on a longer-term view (as we show at the end of this Insight) and despite this year’s rally the sector remains a disappointing investment against the broader Topix Index.Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) is the best performer of the major banks so far this year: up +33.6% over the last six months.  That said, this pales in comparison with bank stocks in other markets such as the US and Europe, where economies are recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and there are rising hopes of a mild steepening of the yield curve.  Meanwhile, despite greater concentration on boosting fee income and lowering overheads, many Japan’s banks remain seemingly unable to fully offset the adverse effects of the near-zero interest rate environment on domestic earnings.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Ever more, ever higher: deposits in Japan keep flooding into the banks as each month passes, reaching an all-time high at the end of April 2021 of ¥859.952 trillion (US$7.88 trillion), according to data provided by the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA).  It was the 175th continuous month of increase, according to the JBA, although the rate of increase on both a MoM (+0.6%) and YoY (+8.2%) basis did not set a new record, reflecting a barely perceptible slowdown in the inflow.According to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), average deposit balances in April 2021 rose +1.5% MoM, or by ¥15.772 trillion (US$144.7 billion), to ¥1,083.032 trillion (US$9.936 trillion); this was also an all-time high level.  On a YoY basis, according to the BoJ data, average deposit balances rose by a remarkable +8.4%, or by ¥83.991 trillion (US$770.56 billion), so well short of last month’s record +8.7% YoY growth rate.What to do with all that cash?  Despite the bankers’ best efforts to lend out those funds to help support an economic recovery, the rate of inflow far surpasses the rate of outflow.  So much so that major banks’ loan to deposit (LDR) ratios have now fallen to historic lows of 48.8%, with lending margins remaining under constant downward pressure.  Japanese banks’ investments in Japanese government bonds (JGBs) are currently at their highest level in 5 years, according to Bank of Japan data, even though yields are minimal at best, and negative-yielding in many cases.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/210/232/original/8300-WR-JBanks-2021-0531-Evermore-JBAData-LDR-MajorvsReg-2017-2021.jpg?1622461040" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="210232"></figure></section>“Caveat Emptor!”  (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Ever more, ever higher: deposits in Japan keep flooding into the banks as each month passes, reaching an all-time high at the end of April 2021 of ¥859.952 trillion (US$7.88 trillion), according to data provided by the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA).  It was the 175th continuous month of increase, according to the JBA, although the rate of increase on both a MoM (+0.6%) and YoY (+8.2%) basis did not set a new record, reflecting a barely perceptible slowdown in the inflow.According to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), average deposit balances in April 2021 rose +1.5% MoM, or by ¥15.772 trillion (US$144.7 billion), to ¥1,083.032 trillion (US$9.936 trillion); this was also an all-time high level.  On a YoY basis, according to the BoJ data, average deposit balances rose by a remarkable +8.4%, or by ¥83.991 trillion (US$770.56 billion), so well short of last month’s record +8.7% YoY growth rate.What to do with all that cash?  Despite the bankers’ best efforts to lend out those funds to help support an economic recovery, the rate of inflow far surpasses the rate of outflow.  So much so that major banks’ loan to deposit (LDR) ratios have now fallen to historic lows of 48.8%, with lending margins remaining under constant downward pressure.  Japanese banks’ investments in Japanese government bonds (JGBs) are currently at their highest level in 5 years, according to Bank of Japan data, even though yields are minimal at best, and negative-yielding in many cases.“Caveat Emptor!”  (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Bank Deposits:  In the Land of Evermore

The lending ‘boom’, caused by Japanese corporates rushing to secure lines of credit in anticipation of extended nationwide ‘lock-downs’ to counteract the spread of the coronavirus in Japan, is largely over.  Data for April 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks is falling sharply back to previous mean levels of 2%-3% after peaking at +6.9% YoY in July 2020.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  As often happens once mid-March is reached, the bank sector then sharply underperformed for the next six weeks, only to rally once again through May.  However, trees do not grow to Heaven, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks.  Although the Japanese bank sector is still up some +16% over Topix for CY2021, we note that the sector has once again started to underperform Topix over the past week. Reverting to the mean is an uninspiring development when it comes to Japanese bank stock performance, as the graph at the end of this Insight clearly shows.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/210/200/original/JBanks-2021-0531-TPNBNKvsTPX-2021.jpg?1622450797" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="210200"></figure></section>

The lending ‘boom’, caused by Japanese corporates rushing to secure lines of credit in anticipation of extended nationwide ‘lock-downs’ to counteract the spread of the coronavirus in Japan, is largely over.  Data for April 2021 from both the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirm that YoY loan growth for Japanese commercial banks is falling sharply back to previous mean levels of 2%-3% after peaking at +6.9% YoY in July 2020.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  As often happens once mid-March is reached, the bank sector then sharply underperformed for the next six weeks, only to rally once again through May.  However, trees do not grow to Heaven, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks.  Although the Japanese bank sector is still up some +16% over Topix for CY2021, we note that the sector has once again started to underperform Topix over the past week. Reverting to the mean is an uninspiring development when it comes to Japanese bank stock performance, as the graph at the end of this Insight clearly shows.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Bank deposits hit an all-time high of ¥854.608 trillion (US$7.84 trillion) on 31 March 2021, according to the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA), rising +2.0% MoM and a remarkable +9.7% YoY.  According to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), average deposit balances in March 2021 were ¥1,067.259 trillion (US$9.79 trillion); this was also an all-time high level.For Japanese bankers, however, such impressive statistics are anything but good news.  Already awash in surplus cash, adding another ¥6.0 trillion (US$55.15 billion) to the banks’ collective coffers in a single month is of almost no value to them whatsoever. The metaphorical equivalent of such an event would be something like turning a fire hose onto an already-flooded river.  It just makes an already bad situation far worse.  Major banks’ loan to deposit (LDR) ratios have now fallen to historic lows of 49%, underlining the fact that customer funds continue to flow into Japanese banks far faster than they are able to process that inflow and reinvest the proceeds as loans to help support an economic recovery. Banks simply do not need those mountains of money that pile higher and higher as each month passes.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  Trees do not grow to Heaven, however, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks.  Having passed the ‘marker point’ for the end of perennial bank rallies, namely 15 March (“The Ides of March”), the sector has weakened noticeably over the last month (after peaking on 19 March 2021 at 162.08) with the mega-banks falling close to 10% while other major banks and large regional banks have seen their share prices falling by 15% or more.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/203/578/original/image_7378929621619743178079.png?1619743180" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="203578"></figure>

Bank deposits hit an all-time high of ¥854.608 trillion (US$7.84 trillion) on 31 March 2021, according to the Japanese Bankers Association (JBA), rising +2.0% MoM and a remarkable +9.7% YoY.  According to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), average deposit balances in March 2021 were ¥1,067.259 trillion (US$9.79 trillion); this was also an all-time high level.For Japanese bankers, however, such impressive statistics are anything but good news.  Already awash in surplus cash, adding another ¥6.0 trillion (US$55.15 billion) to the banks’ collective coffers in a single month is of almost no value to them whatsoever. The metaphorical equivalent of such an event would be something like turning a fire hose onto an already-flooded river.  It just makes an already bad situation far worse.  Major banks’ loan to deposit (LDR) ratios have now fallen to historic lows of 49%, underlining the fact that customer funds continue to flow into Japanese banks far faster than they are able to process that inflow and reinvest the proceeds as loans to help support an economic recovery. Banks simply do not need those mountains of money that pile higher and higher as each month passes.January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  Trees do not grow to Heaven, however, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks.  Having passed the ‘marker point’ for the end of perennial bank rallies, namely 15 March (“The Ides of March”), the sector has weakened noticeably over the last month (after peaking on 19 March 2021 at 162.08) with the mega-banks falling close to 10% while other major banks and large regional banks have seen their share prices falling by 15% or more.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Bank Deposits:  Mountain High, Value Low

An old investment industry joke has it that long-term investments in equities are usually short-term investments that went wrong.  In the Japanese banking industry, short-term loans are euphemistically called “working capital finance” but, in many instances, act as a substitute for equity capital by being rolled-over or renewed every three to six months on an indefinite basis, as long as the interest continues to be paid on time.  Unlike Western banking practice, there is little to no effort ever made by Japanese banks to have these ‘short-term‘ loans cleaned-up and repaid, thereby minimizing the strain on corporate cash-flow over the longer-term while maximizing the banks’ interest income.The arrival of the global COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 created heavy demand for bank finance as companies rushed to secure sufficient cash and lines of credit.  The purpose of this ‘dash for cash’ was to ensure corporate survival and to tide them over what was hoped would be a short period of financial uncertainty. This additional lending was intended to be short-term in nature.  As Japan faces yet another wave of the coronavirus, with emergency declarations in several of her principal cities and more lockdowns just as the postponed 2020 Olympics is scheduled to begin, it is becoming increasingly apparent that some borrowers need not just cash but capital to survive.Some banks are reportedly now considering whether to convert some of these ‘short-term’ emergency loans into long-term subordinated loans, thereby marginally improving the interest rate on the loan.  The clear advantage for the borrower would be the removal of any financial pressure to repay the loan any time soon.  For the banks, there might be other less obvious advantages than simply a better interest rate, including an opportunity to maintain potentially future non-performing loans in ongoing performing-loan status, which would obviate the need to set aside additional loan-loss provisions and preserve the banks’ own precious capital.Why call a spade a spade when it could also be referred to as a shovel?January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  Trees do not grow to Heaven, however, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks, as has once again been proven.  Having passed the ‘marker point’ for the end of perennial bank rallies, namely 15 March (“The Ides of March”), the sector has weakened noticeably over the last month (after peaking on 19 March 2021 at 162.08) with the mega-banks falling close to 10% while other major banks and large regional banks have seen their share prices falling by 15% or more.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/202/916/original/JBanks-2021-0428-TPNBNK+in+2021.jpg?1619500060" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="202916"></figure></section>

An old investment industry joke has it that long-term investments in equities are usually short-term investments that went wrong.  In the Japanese banking industry, short-term loans are euphemistically called “working capital finance” but, in many instances, act as a substitute for equity capital by being rolled-over or renewed every three to six months on an indefinite basis, as long as the interest continues to be paid on time.  Unlike Western banking practice, there is little to no effort ever made by Japanese banks to have these ‘short-term‘ loans cleaned-up and repaid, thereby minimizing the strain on corporate cash-flow over the longer-term while maximizing the banks’ interest income.The arrival of the global COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020 created heavy demand for bank finance as companies rushed to secure sufficient cash and lines of credit.  The purpose of this ‘dash for cash’ was to ensure corporate survival and to tide them over what was hoped would be a short period of financial uncertainty. This additional lending was intended to be short-term in nature.  As Japan faces yet another wave of the coronavirus, with emergency declarations in several of her principal cities and more lockdowns just as the postponed 2020 Olympics is scheduled to begin, it is becoming increasingly apparent that some borrowers need not just cash but capital to survive.Some banks are reportedly now considering whether to convert some of these ‘short-term’ emergency loans into long-term subordinated loans, thereby marginally improving the interest rate on the loan.  The clear advantage for the borrower would be the removal of any financial pressure to repay the loan any time soon.  For the banks, there might be other less obvious advantages than simply a better interest rate, including an opportunity to maintain potentially future non-performing loans in ongoing performing-loan status, which would obviate the need to set aside additional loan-loss provisions and preserve the banks’ own precious capital.Why call a spade a spade when it could also be referred to as a shovel?January through mid-March saw an unusually strong rally in bank shares, in line with trends in other global stock markets.  Trees do not grow to Heaven, however, and stock prices do not rise for ever  –  especially Japanese bank stocks, as has once again been proven.  Having passed the ‘marker point’ for the end of perennial bank rallies, namely 15 March (“The Ides of March”), the sector has weakened noticeably over the last month (after peaking on 19 March 2021 at 162.08) with the mega-banks falling close to 10% while other major banks and large regional banks have seen their share prices falling by 15% or more.“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.

Japanese Banks:  When Spades Become Shovels

Japan

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

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Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)

Japanese Bank Lending: Zero She Flies

The sector’s surprise outperformance of Topix in CY2021 has been undermined by a sub-par June performance. Zero growth beckons. Caveat Emptor...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Bank Deposits: In the Land of Evermore

Ever more, ever higher: deposits in Japan keep flooding into the banks. Despite the bankers’ best efforts to lend out those funds, the rate of...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Bank Lending: Mean Reversion

The lending ‘boom’, triggered by companies rushing to secure bank funding in anticipation of extended nationwide ‘lock-downs’ to counteract the...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Bank Deposits: Mountain High, Value Low

Bank deposits hit an all-time high of ¥854.608 trillion (US$7.84 trillion) on 31 March 2021. For Japanese bankers, however, such impressive...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Banks: When Spades Become Shovels

As Japan faces yet another coronavirus outbreak, it is increasingly apparent that some borrowers need not just cash but capital to survive. Short...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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