Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On Thursday February 5 Maersk reported in-line FY25 results and a Q425 EBIT loss in Ocean
</li>
<li>In FY26 Maersk expects a -40% Y/Y decline in EBITDA and an EBIT loss on lower freight rates</li>
<li>We expect smaller carriers (including Asian names) to suffer even more than Maersk in FY26</li>
</ul>


On Thursday February 5 Maersk reported in-line FY25 results and a Q425 EBIT loss in Ocean

In FY26 Maersk expects a -40% Y/Y decline in EBITDA and an EBIT loss on lower freight rates
We expect smaller carriers (including Asian names) to suffer even more than Maersk in FY26


Maersk FY25 Results and FY26 Guidance: Leading Carrier Expects FY26 EBIT Loss Due to Lower Rates

<ul>
<li>Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January</li>
<li>North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December</li>
<li>Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal</li>
</ul>


Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January
North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December
Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

<ul>
<li>Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates</li>
<li>Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026</li>
<li>Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector</li>
</ul>


Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates
Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026
Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector


Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cover Story: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International Airlines</li><li>In Depth: Megvii Co-Founder Is Back Riding the Latest AI Wave</li><li>China Provinces Set Cautious 2026 Growth Targets</li><li>China Drafts Rules to Lure Pension, Bank Funds Into Private Placements</li></ul>

Cover Story: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International AirlinesIn Depth: Megvii Co-Founder Is Back Riding the Latest AI WaveChina Provinces Set Cautious 2026 Growth TargetsChina Drafts Rules to Lure Pension, Bank Funds Into Private Placements

CX Daily: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International Airlines 

Podcast by Eric Golden on Web3 businesses, Web3 Breakdowns

Web3 Breakdowns

Podcast by Eric Golden on Web3 businesses

Web3 Breakdowns is a series of conversations exploring innovation in the decentralized internet. Each episode will focus on a different topic - we will cover NFT projects, crypto assets, blockchain-based protocols, and businesses being built with Web3 architecture. We will talk to founders, artists, investors and influencers to understand this emerging ecosystem. Visit joincolossus.com to find more episodes, transcripts and a library of content to continue your learning.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Eric Johnson, senior technology editor at the Journal of Commerce, brings over 20 years of experience covering logistics and technology</li><li>Journal of Commerce is a nearly 200-year-old publication focused on the maritime containerized supply chain industry</li><li>Freight logistics involve moving large volumes of goods from factories to distribution centers or warehouses, with multiple players involved in the process from point A to point B</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Eric Johnson, senior technology editor at the Journal of Commerce, brings over 20 years of experience covering logistics and technologyJournal of Commerce is a nearly 200-year-old publication focused on the maritime containerized supply chain industryFreight logistics involve moving large volumes of goods from factories to distribution centers or warehouses, with multiple players involved in the process from point A to point BThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Eric Johnson: The Complex World of Global Logistics - [Making Markets, EP.52]

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

Maersk FY25 Results and FY26 Guidance: Leading Carrier Expects FY26 EBIT Loss Due to Lower Rates

Maersk managed to hit FY25 guidance, but also issued downbeat FY26 guidance, including an expected EBIT loss (at mid-point of range). Conditions in...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

Underlying supply-demand conditions for deep sea container carriers remain weak, with poor US consumer sentiment and rapid capacity growth. A Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Maersk reported decent Q3 numbers last week, but management's downbeat tone & new guidance that suggests EBIT loss in Q4 should raise alarm bells...

Tracking Traffic

CX Daily: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International Airlines

TOP STORIES Cover Story: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International Airlines Once reviled as a public health menace in China, “gutter...

Caixin Global

Eric Johnson: The Complex World of Global Logistics - [Making Markets, EP.52]

The Journal of Commerce, led by Eric Johnson, delves into the complexities of logistics and technology in the movement of goods internationally,...

Web3 Breakdowns

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