Lead Analyst, Credit Research, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Konstantinos Oikonomopoulos

Lead Analyst, Credit Research

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Credit

Strong profitability thanks to an improved market, NOL's contribution and Ocean Alliance network efficiencies  Record revenues in FY17: Top line surged by 32% y/y at the end of the year at USD 21bn of which USD 5.9bn were contributed by NOL. On a stand-alone basis and in order to compare accurately performance (NOL consolidation since June 2016), CMA CGM’s sales grew by circa 14% on FY17 revenue of USD 15.2bn vs USD 13.4bn a year before. The consolidated group benefitted from a 21% surge y/y…

Strong profitability thanks to an improved market, NOL's contribution and Ocean Alliance network efficiencies  Record revenues in FY17: Top line surged by 32% y/y at the end of the year at USD 21bn of which USD 5.9bn were contributed by NOL. On a stand-alone basis and in order to compare accurately performance (NOL consolidation since June 2016), CMA CGM’s sales grew by circa 14% on FY17 revenue of USD 15.2bn vs USD 13.4bn a year before. The consolidated group benefitted from a 21% surge y/y…

Container Shipping - Can CMA CGMs Bonds Withstand the Selling Pressure from the Broader Bond Market?

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18689" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18689:1">Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)</a>'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight rates and carrier profitability had improved sharply in the months following Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd (117930 KS)'s August 2016 bankruptcy, and that further fundamental improvements would be much harder to come by. About six months after turning cautious on container shipping, we remain negative on the sector, and we believe 2018 will turn out to be worse…

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

Equity analyst - Containers, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Nilesh Tiwary

Equity analyst - Containers

AP Moller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD 356m. However, after including the impact from the discontinued operations, total losses turned out to be USD 1.2bn (DMFR’s loss estimate USD 1.03bn). Maersk Line reported a full-year profit of USD 541m for FY17, slightly lower than our estimate of USD 596m. After initially reacting negatively on Friday, the stock at the time of writing today was up ~3%…

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD 356m. However, after including the impact from the discontinued operations, total losses turned out to be USD 1.2bn (DMFR’s loss estimate USD 1.03bn). Maersk Line reported a full-year profit of USD 541m for FY17, slightly lower than our estimate of USD 596m. After initially reacting negatively on Friday, the stock at the time of writing today was up ~3%…

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our Neutral case was based on our view that the lower-than-expected spot rates would find its way into the East-West contract rates, thus limiting Maersk Line’s profitability in 2018. While this is true for all other operators in our coverage list, APMM is also grappling with other issues, including divestment of energy assets and the acquisition of Hamburg…

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our Neutral case was based on our view that the lower-than-expected spot rates would find its way into the East-West contract rates, thus limiting Maersk Line’s profitability in 2018. While this is true for all other operators in our coverage list, APMM is also grappling with other issues, including divestment of energy assets and the acquisition of Hamburg…

AP Moller Maersk - Sometime to Go Before Hitting Full Throttle

Credit positives<ul>
<li>S&amp;P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note analysing the reasons we believe the company is set for a credit rating upgrade.</li>
<li>CMA CGM transported 11% greater volumes y/y in 3Q17 outperforming global throughput growth thanks to a good market environment additional capacity within Ocean Alliance. The group also achieved 13% higher rates per teu for the first 9M17 versus 9M16 at USD 1,098.9 per teu.</li>
<li>Credit…</li>
</ul>

Credit positives
S&amp;P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note analysing the reasons we believe the company is set for a credit rating upgrade.
CMA CGM transported 11% greater volumes y/y in 3Q17 outperforming global throughput growth thanks to a good market environment additional capacity within Ocean Alliance. The group also achieved 13% higher rates per teu for the first 9M17 versus 9M16 at USD 1,098.9 per teu.
Credit…


CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Denmark

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company. The Company offers container vessels, supply ships, special vessels, terminals, tug boat activities and reefer container box manufacturing. A.P. Moller-Maersk serves clients worldwide.

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AP Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)

Container Shipping - Can CMA CGMs Bonds Withstand the Selling Pressure from the Broader Bond Market?

Strong profitability thanks to an improved market, NOL's contribution and Ocean Alliance network efficiencies Record revenues in FY17: Top line...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

AP Moller Maersk - Sometime to Go Before Hitting Full Throttle

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Credit positives S&P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Container Shipping - Can CMA CGMs Bonds Withstand the Selling Pressure from the Broader Bond Market?

Strong profitability thanks to an improved market, NOL's contribution and Ocean Alliance network efficiencies Record revenues in FY17: Top line...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Shipping Sector: Six Months of Declining Share Prices Explained in Three Charts

We began to turn cautious on container shipping last Summer and became more negative as Summer turned to Fall. Our view was that average freight...

Daniel Hellberg

AP Moller Maersk – Results on Expected Lines

AP Moller Maersk reported its 4Q17 and FY17 numbers on 9 February 2018. The company’s underlying profit from continuing operations stood at USD...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

AP Moller Maersk - Sometime to Go Before Hitting Full Throttle

Reiterating our neutral view with a 6% cut in fair value: APMM’s share price has mostly been on a free fall since July 2017. As a reminder, our...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

CMA CGM Credit Research - Container Shipping

Credit positives S&P upgraded CMA CGM by one notch to B+ on 10 Oct 2017. This was predicted by Drewry on 21 Sep when we published a note...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research