Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices.</li><li>Group II heavy-grade prices maintain steep premium to Group I heavy-neutrals prices in Asia and especially in Europe.</li><li>Group II heavy-grade price-strength extends to markets like India, even with recent strength in Group I prices in that market.</li></ul>

Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices.Group II heavy-grade prices maintain steep premium to Group I heavy-neutrals prices in Asia and especially in Europe.Group II heavy-grade price-strength extends to markets like India, even with recent strength in Group I prices in that market.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025.</li><li>Recovery in light-grade base oils margins curbs pressure on refiners to adjust output of those supplies.</li><li>Any moves to sustain base oils output at current levels would coincide with completion of most plant-maintenance work in the region.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025.Recovery in light-grade base oils margins curbs pressure on refiners to adjust output of those supplies.Any moves to sustain base oils output at current levels would coincide with completion of most plant-maintenance work in the region.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand could ease as lower crude oil prices curb prospect of refiners adjusting output or raising prices.</li><li>Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in surplus supply in coming weeks adds to incentive to hold back and to procure top-up supplies on need-to basis.</li><li>Demand for Group II heavy grades could get support from concern about tighter availability of Group I heavy neutrals because of upcoming plant-maintenance in southeast Asia and uncertainty about stability of flows from Iran.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand could ease as lower crude oil prices curb prospect of refiners adjusting output or raising prices.Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in surplus supply in coming weeks adds to incentive to hold back and to procure top-up supplies on need-to basis.Demand for Group II heavy grades could get support from concern about tighter availability of Group I heavy neutrals because of upcoming plant-maintenance in southeast Asia and uncertainty about stability of flows from Iran.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a> and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 10 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 1 stock is expected to be added to Large cap, 2 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for global indices, NIFTY Index, NSE Nifty Next 50 Index and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in September.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

<ul><li>Global base oils prices extend fall vs competing/feedstock prices following surge in crude oil prices.</li><li>Rising diesel premium to crude oil magnifies pressure on base oils prices.</li><li>Speed of fall in base oils price differentials suggests surge in crude prices rather than weaker supply-demand fundamentals is key factor driving lower margins.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices extend fall vs competing/feedstock prices following surge in crude oil prices.Rising diesel premium to crude oil magnifies pressure on base oils prices.Speed of fall in base oils price differentials suggests surge in crude prices rather than weaker supply-demand fundamentals is key factor driving lower margins.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 23 June

India

Apar Industries Ltd. manufactures aluminum conductors for power transmission. The Company also manufactures polymers, synthetic rubbers, latexes, transformer oils, pharmaceutical oils and other specialty oils.

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Apar Industries (APR IN)

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June

Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices. Group II heavy-grade prices...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June

Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025. Recovery in light-grade base oils...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June

Asia’s base oils demand could ease as lower crude oil prices curb prospect of refiners adjusting output or raising prices. Prospect of seasonal...

Base Oil News

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Jun 2025): Active Flows Lead to Passive Flows

We currently forecast 44 migrations for the AMFI July reclassification. Some IPOs could be added to Large/Mid cap. The forecast upward migrations...

Brian Freitas

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 23 June

Global base oils prices extend fall vs competing/feedstock prices following surge in crude oil prices. Rising diesel premium to crude oil...

Base Oil News

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