Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-special-steel-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15900:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a>’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board's requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples. </li>
<li>The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.   </li>
</ul>



Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP) has recommended Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.
The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board's requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples. 
The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.   


Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The past two weeks have been full of announcements by various companies in Europe’s industrial sector that they are either shutting down production or curtailing production due to spiraling energy costs. </li><li>This includes steel companies, fertilizer companies, aluminum foundries, and chemical companies which use natural gas in manufacturing to produce their end products. </li><li>This got me thinking these announcements may be just the next leg of continuing the theme started by Howard Mark’s memo (link below) of the “pendulum swing” whereby the inability to have cheap and stable energy prices will likely result in companies seeking alternative supply sources away from Europe.</li></ul>

The past two weeks have been full of announcements by various companies in Europe’s industrial sector that they are either shutting down production or curtailing production due to spiraling energy costs. This includes steel companies, fertilizer companies, aluminum foundries, and chemical companies which use natural gas in manufacturing to produce their end products. This got me thinking these announcements may be just the next leg of continuing the theme started by Howard Mark’s memo (link below) of the “pendulum swing” whereby the inability to have cheap and stable energy prices will likely result in companies seeking alternative supply sources away from Europe.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beginning of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's results and avoided the Heineken/Heineken Holdings trade.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV: Alba, 42.8%; GBL, 34.5%; Heineken Holdings to 21.5%; Industrivärden C, 7.8%; Investor B, 14.3%; Porsche Automobile Holding to 29.4%. Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 16.2%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. If anything, recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beginning of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's results and avoided the Heineken/Heineken Holdings trade.
Discounts to NAV: Alba, 42.8%; GBL, 34.5%; Heineken Holdings to 21.5%; Industrivärden C, 7.8%; Investor B, 14.3%; Porsche Automobile Holding to 29.4%. Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 16.2%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. If anything, recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: July ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June: Alba, 40.3%; GBL, 34.7%; Heineken Holdings to 20.9%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 15.6%; </li>
<li>Porsche Automobile Holding to 35.3%. Rio Tinto DLC widened to 23.4%.  Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities to bet on tightening discounts.</li>
<li>Recommended trades: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June: Alba, 40.3%; GBL, 34.7%; Heineken Holdings to 20.9%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 15.6%; 
Porsche Automobile Holding to 35.3%. Rio Tinto DLC widened to 23.4%.  Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities to bet on tightening discounts.
Recommended trades: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June ‘22 Report

Luxembourg

APERAM manufactures specialty steel. The Company produces stainless and grain-oriented and non grain-oriented electrical steel and nickel alloys. APERAM markets its products in Brazil, France, and Belgium.

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APERAM SA (APAM NA)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism

The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range and unattractive compared to peer multiples. This needs...

Arun George

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/29

The past two weeks have been full of announcements by various companies in Europe’s industrial sector that they are either shutting down production...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: July ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos haven't shown a clear trend during July/beg. of August. Investors have favored Swedish hodlcos, disliked GBL's...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets, it pays...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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