External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability due to the flooding at its Sierre operations.</li><li>Consolidated EBITDA grew by 42%/6% YoY/QoQ to Rs 8,029 Cr (11% beat vs. our and consensus), led by strong upstream Aluminium and Copper EBITDA.</li><li>NALCO’s revenue/EBITDA/PAT beat ours and consensus estimates on account of strong performance by both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability due to the flooding at its Sierre operations.Consolidated EBITDA grew by 42%/6% YoY/QoQ to Rs 8,029 Cr (11% beat vs. our and consensus), led by strong upstream Aluminium and Copper EBITDA.NALCO’s revenue/EBITDA/PAT beat ours and consensus estimates on account of strong performance by both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas – “Metals and Mining”

<ul><li>For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking coal consumption costs, partially offset by lower NSRs (Benchmark Steel HRC prices in the traders market exMumbai have declined by 6% YoY and flat QoQ).</li><li>On a QoQ basis, we expect EBITDA/t growth to moderate or even decline as a decline in coking coal consumption cost is offset by lower NSRs and lower sales volumes over the seasonally strong Q4FY24.</li><li>For Aluminium companies, we expect growth in EBITDA margin to moderate on a QoQ basis.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking coal consumption costs, partially offset by lower NSRs (Benchmark Steel HRC prices in the traders market exMumbai have declined by 6% YoY and flat QoQ).On a QoQ basis, we expect EBITDA/t growth to moderate or even decline as a decline in coking coal consumption cost is offset by lower NSRs and lower sales volumes over the seasonally strong Q4FY24.For Aluminium companies, we expect growth in EBITDA margin to moderate on a QoQ basis.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations delivered robust performance.</li><li>Overall consolidated revenue stood largely inline (flat YoY, up 6% QoQ), while reported EBITDA grew by 24%/14% YoY/QoQ (10% beat vs. our estimates), led by strong upstream Aluminium and copper division.</li><li>NALCO reported a strong set of numbers with EBITDA beating ours and consensus estimates. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s Indian operations delivered robust performance.Overall consolidated revenue stood largely inline (flat YoY, up 6% QoQ), while reported EBITDA grew by 24%/14% YoY/QoQ (10% beat vs. our estimates), led by strong upstream Aluminium and copper division.NALCO reported a strong set of numbers with EBITDA beating ours and consensus estimates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Sector Ideas - Metals and Mining Q4FY24

<ul><li>We anticipate margin contraction for steel companies within our coverage due to decreased steel price realizations (average HRC benchmark prices down 7% YoY and 5% QoQ in Q4FY24) and increased coking coal consumption costs (largely flat YoY but higher QoQ), despite a QoQ recovery in sales volumes driven by seasonally strong performance in Q4 (although volumes remain largely flat YoY).</li><li>We expect another good quarter for base metal stocks under our coverage.</li><li>Both Hindalco and NALCO are expected to report margin expansion YoY/QoQ on higher shipments, stable LME, and lower coal/power costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We anticipate margin contraction for steel companies within our coverage due to decreased steel price realizations (average HRC benchmark prices down 7% YoY and 5% QoQ in Q4FY24) and increased coking coal consumption costs (largely flat YoY but higher QoQ), despite a QoQ recovery in sales volumes driven by seasonally strong performance in Q4 (although volumes remain largely flat YoY).We expect another good quarter for base metal stocks under our coverage.Both Hindalco and NALCO are expected to report margin expansion YoY/QoQ on higher shipments, stable LME, and lower coal/power costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Nalco’s Revenue stood at Rs 3,043 Cr, down 13%/4% YoY/QoQ, led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.</li><li>EBITDA (up 19% YoY, down 33% QoQ) was a negative surprise due to a 29%/39% miss vs. consensus and our estimate, largely due to an unexpected surge in the Power and Fuel costs (up 14% QoQ, 19% higher than our estimates). </li><li>Hindalco’s Consolidated Revenue (down 4% YoY, up 2% QoQ), stood in line with our estimate at Rs 54,169 Cr. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco’s Revenue stood at Rs 3,043 Cr, down 13%/4% YoY/QoQ, led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.EBITDA (up 19% YoY, down 33% QoQ) was a negative surprise due to a 29%/39% miss vs. consensus and our estimate, largely due to an unexpected surge in the Power and Fuel costs (up 14% QoQ, 19% higher than our estimates). Hindalco’s Consolidated Revenue (down 4% YoY, up 2% QoQ), stood in line with our estimate at Rs 54,169 Cr. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Sector Ideas - Metals and Mining (Q2FY24)

India

APL Apollo Tubes is India's largest producer of structural steel tubes, holding approximately 55% of the market share. The company manufactures over 2,500 products, including square, rectangular, and circular hollow sections, as well as pre-galvanized tubes, galvanized tubes, and MS black pipes, catering to construction, infrastructure, and industrial sectors. Headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh (Delhi NCR), the company was founded in 1986.

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APL Apollo Tubes (APAT IN)

Top Conviction Ideas – “Metals and Mining”

Consolidated EBITDA grew by 42%/6% YoY/QoQ to Rs 8,029 Cr (11% beat vs. our and consensus), led by strong upstream Aluminium and Copper EBITDA.

Axis Direct

Metals - Q1FY25 Earnings Preview

For Steel companies under our coverage, EBITDA/t is expected to increase on a YoY basis, led by higher metal sales volumes YoY and lower coking...

Axis Direct

Top Sector Ideas - Metals and Mining Q4FY24

Overall consolidated revenue stood largely inline (flat YoY, up 6% QoQ), while reported EBITDA grew by 24%/14% YoY/QoQ (10% beat vs. our estimates)

Axis Direct

Metals - Q4FY24 Earnings Preview

Both Hindalco and NALCO are expected to report margin expansion YoY/QoQ on higher shipments, stable LME, and lower coal/power costs.

Axis Direct

Top Sector Ideas - Metals and Mining (Q2FY24)

Nalco’s Revenue stood at Rs 3,043 Cr, down 13%/4% YoY/QoQ, led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices. EBITDA (up 19% YoY, down 33% QoQ) was...

Axis Direct

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