Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q4 FY25 performance was strong with volumes up 25% YoY, EBITDA up 48% YoY, and net profit up 72% YoY; EBITDA per ton improved to Rs4,864 (+18%YoY).</li>
<li>Management targets ~20% volume growth and ~Rs5,000/ton EBITDA for FY26, with capex of Rs1,500 crore over three years to expand capacity from 4.5 to 6.8mt.</li>
<li>EPS is projected to grow ~55% in FY26 and 20%+ in FY27; stock trades at ~39x FY26E and ~33x FY27E earnings, supported by strong internal cash generation and low leverage.</li>
</ul>


Q4 FY25 performance was strong with volumes up 25% YoY, EBITDA up 48% YoY, and net profit up 72% YoY; EBITDA per ton improved to Rs4,864 (+18%YoY).
Management targets ~20% volume growth and ~Rs5,000/ton EBITDA for FY26, with capex of Rs1,500 crore over three years to expand capacity from 4.5 to 6.8mt.
EPS is projected to grow ~55% in FY26 and 20%+ in FY27; stock trades at ~39x FY26E and ~33x FY27E earnings, supported by strong internal cash generation and low leverage.


APL Apollo Tubes: Volume Momentum Intact; Margin Expansion and Capex Execution Key to Valuations

<ul>
<li>APL Apollo has raised its capex guidance to accelerate growth in high-margin, value-added products (VAP) and new segments like heavy structural tubes, pre-engineered buildings, and solar structures.</li>
<li>Margins have recovered from Q2 lows but remain subdued due to weak steel prices. Sales volumes have grown at an 18% CAGR.</li>
<li>Trading at 65x TTM P/E vs. a 5-year average of 50x. A strong execution track record and RoCE &gt;25% provide confidence in growth execution.</li>
</ul>


APL Apollo has raised its capex guidance to accelerate growth in high-margin, value-added products (VAP) and new segments like heavy structural tubes, pre-engineered buildings, and solar structures.
Margins have recovered from Q2 lows but remain subdued due to weak steel prices. Sales volumes have grown at an 18% CAGR.
Trading at 65x TTM P/E vs. a 5-year average of 50x. A strong execution track record and RoCE &gt;25% provide confidence in growth execution.


APL Apollo Tubes (APAT IN) Stepping up the Gas on Capacity Expansions

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

Shankara Building Products L / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shankara-building-products-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27268:1" rel="noopener">Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN)</a> plans to demerge its steel manufacturing and building materials marketplace, enabling each business to operate independently with tailored leadership and capital allocation strategies.</li>
<li>This separation allows for targeted expansions in non-steel product lines and dedicated manufacturing improvements, potentially raising margins and fueling profitable growth in India’s booming construction market.</li>
<li>Focused leadership, improved transparency, and strategic capital deployment could enhance investor confidence, offering significant upside as Shankara refocuses on high-growth segments and streamlines its operations post-demerger.</li>
</ul>



Shankara Building Products L (SHANKARA IN) plans to demerge its steel manufacturing and building materials marketplace, enabling each business to operate independently with tailored leadership and capital allocation strategies.
This separation allows for targeted expansions in non-steel product lines and dedicated manufacturing improvements, potentially raising margins and fueling profitable growth in India’s booming construction market.
Focused leadership, improved transparency, and strategic capital deployment could enhance investor confidence, offering significant upside as Shankara refocuses on high-growth segments and streamlines its operations post-demerger.


Event Driven: Shankara Building Products, A Demerger Play

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The December 2024 index review results for the BSE Sensex and BSE 100 Indices were announced after the close on Friday 22nd November 2024.</li>
<li>On the same day, the Bombay Stock Exchange announced several new names will be added to the Futures and Options (F&amp;O) segment resulting in multiple surprises among the index changes.</li>
<li>There will be one change for BSE Sensex and six changes for BSE 100 during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
</ul>


The December 2024 index review results for the BSE Sensex and BSE 100 Indices were announced after the close on Friday 22nd November 2024.
On the same day, the Bombay Stock Exchange announced several new names will be added to the Futures and Options (F&amp;O) segment resulting in multiple surprises among the index changes.
There will be one change for BSE Sensex and six changes for BSE 100 during the December 2024 index rebal event.


Quiddity BSE Dec 24 Rebal: Big Wins for Zomato & Jiofin as New F&O Inclusions Trigger Surprises

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect six ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.</li>
<li>Zomato is one of the six BSE 100 expected DELs but its fate will depend on when its expected F&amp;O list inclusion takes place and the index provider's discretionary choices.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 indices in the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect six ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 and six ADDs/DELs for BSE 200.
Zomato is one of the six BSE 100 expected DELs but its fate will depend on when its expected F&amp;O list inclusion takes place and the index provider's discretionary choices.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations + Zomato Question Mark

India

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. manufactures and exports galvanized steel tubes, galvanized steel pipes, and welded black pipes and tubes.

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Apl Apollo Tubes (APAT IN)

APL Apollo Tubes: Volume Momentum Intact; Margin Expansion and Capex Execution Key to Valuations

Strong Q4 FY25 performance with significant growth in volumes, EBITDA, and net profit; management targets 20% volume growth and Rs5,000/ton EBITDA...

Rahul Jain