Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

APL Apollo Tubes (APAT IN) Stepping up the Gas on Capacity Expansions

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q4 FY25 performance was strong with volumes up 25% YoY, EBITDA up 48% YoY, and net profit up 72% YoY; EBITDA per ton improved to Rs4,864 (+18%YoY).</li>
<li>Management targets ~20% volume growth and ~Rs5,000/ton EBITDA for FY26, with capex of Rs1,500 crore over three years to expand capacity from 4.5 to 6.8mt.</li>
<li>EPS is projected to grow ~55% in FY26 and 20%+ in FY27; stock trades at ~39x FY26E and ~33x FY27E earnings, supported by strong internal cash generation and low leverage.</li>
</ul>


Q4 FY25 performance was strong with volumes up 25% YoY, EBITDA up 48% YoY, and net profit up 72% YoY; EBITDA per ton improved to Rs4,864 (+18%YoY).
Management targets ~20% volume growth and ~Rs5,000/ton EBITDA for FY26, with capex of Rs1,500 crore over three years to expand capacity from 4.5 to 6.8mt.
EPS is projected to grow ~55% in FY26 and 20%+ in FY27; stock trades at ~39x FY26E and ~33x FY27E earnings, supported by strong internal cash generation and low leverage.


APL Apollo Tubes: Volume Momentum Intact; Margin Expansion and Capex Execution Key to Valuations

Apl Apollo Tubes

APL Apollo Tubes: Volume Momentum Intact; Margin Expansion and Capex Execution Key to Valuations