External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>EBITDA/t Miss led by inventory loss: Q2FY25 EBITDA/t declined to an all-time low of Rs 1,821/t (down 62%/56% YoY/QoQ) led by the impact of inventory loss and sales discount as traders were in destocking mode amidst falling steel prices. Steel prices declined by ~Rs 7,500/t QoQ in Q2FY25.</li><li>Management believes that the worst is now behind and expects margins to expand to a normalised level of Rs 4,500-5,000/t over the next 2-3 quarters. </li><li>These margins will be sustained throughout FY26. The company targets EBITDA/t of Rs 5,040/t by FY27.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EBITDA/t Miss led by inventory loss: Q2FY25 EBITDA/t declined to an all-time low of Rs 1,821/t (down 62%/56% YoY/QoQ) led by the impact of inventory loss and sales discount as traders were in destocking mode amidst falling steel prices. Steel prices declined by ~Rs 7,500/t QoQ in Q2FY25.Management believes that the worst is now behind and expects margins to expand to a normalised level of Rs 4,500-5,000/t over the next 2-3 quarters. These margins will be sustained throughout FY26. The company targets EBITDA/t of Rs 5,040/t by FY27.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss on Inventory Loss

<ul><li>Near-term pressure on EBITDA/t to ease gradually as steel prices stabilise: The company’s EBITDA/t stood at Rs 4,183/t, down 10% YoY due to certain one-off expenses in employee and other expenses.</li><li>Excluding these expenses, EBITDA/t would have been higher by Rs 150/t. In Q2FY25, EBITDA/t could remain under pressure as dealers are not in the restocking mode as steel prices continue to correct.</li><li>In FY25, the company targets to achieve flat EBITDA/t YoY. However, going ahead from FY26 onwards, multiple levers are present to increase EBITDA/t towards Rs 5,000/t.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Near-term pressure on EBITDA/t to ease gradually as steel prices stabilise: The company’s EBITDA/t stood at Rs 4,183/t, down 10% YoY due to certain one-off expenses in employee and other expenses.Excluding these expenses, EBITDA/t would have been higher by Rs 150/t. In Q2FY25, EBITDA/t could remain under pressure as dealers are not in the restocking mode as steel prices continue to correct.In FY25, the company targets to achieve flat EBITDA/t YoY. However, going ahead from FY26 onwards, multiple levers are present to increase EBITDA/t towards Rs 5,000/t.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apl Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss; Multiple Levers for Improvement Ahead

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.</li><li>Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY/QoQ), which was 2% ahead of our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 9,609 Cr (up 41%/26% YoY/QoQ), a 9% beat vs. our estimate, led by strong aluminium performance.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability.Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY/QoQ), which was 2% ahead of our estimate.EBITDA stood at Rs 9,609 Cr (up 41%/26% YoY/QoQ), a 9% beat vs. our estimate, led by strong aluminium performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining” - Sequential Recovery in EBITDA in Q4FY25

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered a return of 15.3% in the last three months against the 11.9% return posted by the Nifty 50, outperforming the Nifty 50 by a notable margin of 3.4%.</li><li>Moreover, over the last one month, the basket has gained 2.6%. We are happy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 321% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 167% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period.</li><li>India’s Domestic Economy Well-Positioned: Despite external risks, India’s domestic growth trajectory remains intact, with key macroeconomic factors supporting a stronger FY26 compared to FY25.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered a return of 15.3% in the last three months against the 11.9% return posted by the Nifty 50, outperforming the Nifty 50 by a notable margin of 3.4%.Moreover, over the last one month, the basket has gained 2.6%. We are happy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 321% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 167% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period.India’s Domestic Economy Well-Positioned: Despite external risks, India’s domestic growth trajectory remains intact, with key macroeconomic factors supporting a stronger FY26 compared to FY25.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the Month of June 2025

<ul><li>The Q4FY25 earnings season was marked by 1) Sequential improvement in capex spending, 2) A Series of positive measures in the domestic economy taken by the RBI and the government, 3) Volatile Currency, 4) Volatile Trade dynamics, and 5) Volatile Crude prices. All these developments indicate that the Q4FY25 earnings would show a mixed trend, similar to the previous quarters.</li><li>Some breather is expected in Q4FY25 numbers, led by sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators.</li><li>However, the broader consumption demand could still take 1-2 quarters to get back on track. Overall, the improvement in earnings is expected in certain pockets like BFSI, IT, Healthcare, Telecom, and Industrials, while Consumer Staples, Retail, and cyclical sectors like Oil &amp; Gas remain under pressure. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Q4FY25 earnings season was marked by 1) Sequential improvement in capex spending, 2) A Series of positive measures in the domestic economy taken by the RBI and the government, 3) Volatile Currency, 4) Volatile Trade dynamics, and 5) Volatile Crude prices. All these developments indicate that the Q4FY25 earnings would show a mixed trend, similar to the previous quarters.Some breather is expected in Q4FY25 numbers, led by sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators.However, the broader consumption demand could still take 1-2 quarters to get back on track. Overall, the improvement in earnings is expected in certain pockets like BFSI, IT, Healthcare, Telecom, and Industrials, while Consumer Staples, Retail, and cyclical sectors like Oil &amp; Gas remain under pressure. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. manufactures and exports galvanized steel tubes, galvanized steel pipes, and welded black pipes and tubes.

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Apl Apollo Tubes (APAT IN)

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss on Inventory Loss

Management believes that the worst is now behind and expects margins to expand to a normalised level of Rs 4,500-5,000/t over the next 2-3 quarters.

Axis Direct

Apl Apollo Tubes Ltd - EBITDA/T Miss; Multiple Levers for Improvement Ahead

The company’s EBITDA/t stood at Rs 4,183/t, down 10% YoY due to certain one-off expenses in employee and other expenses.

Axis Direct

Top Conviction Ideas - “Metals & Mining” - Sequential Recovery in EBITDA in Q4FY25

Hindalco’s Indian operations stood robust, offsetting Novelis's impacted profitability. Consolidated Revenue stood at Rs 64,890 Cr (up 16%/11% YoY...

Axis Direct

Axis Top Picks for the Month of June 2025

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered a return of 15.3% in the last three months against the 11.9% return posted by the Nifty 50, outperforming the...

Axis Direct

Q4FY25 - Consolidated Earnings Preview

Based on our and consensus estimates, we forecast Nifty to deliver Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 4.8%/2.9%/1.3% YoY, respectively, for the quarter.

Axis Direct

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