Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal: APO, CRH, WDAY, TPL

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: Two ADDs (One Biggie), Two DELs, Possible Big Intrareview Moves

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes during September. More interestingly, a couple of SP500 members are working on spin-offs which could trigger some high-impact deletions over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes during September. More interestingly, a couple of SP500 members are working on spin-offs which could trigger some high-impact deletions over the next few months.


Sep24 S&P500 Index Rebal - Two Changes Expected; $6bn One-Way Flow and Two Spinoffs?

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/williams-sonoma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11383:1" rel="noopener">Williams Sonoma (WSM US)</a> is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-airlines-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1" rel="noopener">American Airlines Group (AAL US)</a> is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.

Williams Sonoma (WSM US) is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.

American Airlines Group (AAL US) is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.


S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ti-fluid-systems-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41309:1" rel="noopener">TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN)</a> is trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, which the Board of TIFS would be minded to recommend if made firm.</li>
<li>Although TIFS has made notable strategic progress recently, and maintained margins despite tough conditions over the last years, the short-term car picture has gotten progressively worse.</li>
<li>200p implies 4.6x EV/NTM EBITDA versus global auto suppliers trading on a median of 4.4x and represents a good-value exit. I believe the deal will complete. Long.</li>
</ul>



TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) is trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, which the Board of TIFS would be minded to recommend if made firm.
Although TIFS has made notable strategic progress recently, and maintained margins despite tough conditions over the last years, the short-term car picture has gotten progressively worse.
200p implies 4.6x EV/NTM EBITDA versus global auto suppliers trading on a median of 4.4x and represents a good-value exit. I believe the deal will complete. Long.


ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

United States

Apollo Global Management, Inc. operates as an alternative investment management company. The Company focuses on investing in yield, hybrid, and equity markets to generate retirement and investment income for clients. Apollo Global Management serves businesses and individuals worldwide.

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Apollo Global Management (APO US)

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal: APO, CRH, WDAY, TPL

The S&P500 rebalance in December is shaping up to be a trade worth $8-13bn a side but there is a possible intra-review change to come as well....

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: Two ADDs (One Biggie), Two DELs, Possible Big Intrareview Moves

There are currently two expected ADDs and two expected DELs for the SP500 Dec24 Rebalance. There could be more from spinoffs and mergers. One big...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 S&P500 Index Rebal - Two Changes Expected; $6bn One-Way Flow and Two Spinoffs?

The S&P500 index rebal is coming in about 7 weeks. There are about 5 weeks of data left to tally. We expect there are two changes, but there are...

Travis Lundy

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, with Board likely to recommend if firm. Despite recent...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal: APO, CRH, WDAY, TPL

The S&P500 rebalance in December is shaping up to be a trade worth $8-13bn a side but there is a possible intra-review change to come as well....

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24: Two ADDs (One Biggie), Two DELs, Possible Big Intrareview Moves

There are currently two expected ADDs and two expected DELs for the SP500 Dec24 Rebalance. There could be more from spinoffs and mergers. One big...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 S&P500 Index Rebal - Two Changes Expected; $6bn One-Way Flow and Two Spinoffs?

The S&P500 index rebal is coming in about 7 weeks. There are about 5 weeks of data left to tally. We expect there are two changes, but there are...

Travis Lundy

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

​Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

​TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, with Board likely to recommend if firm. Despite recent...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, with Board likely to recommend if firm. Despite recent...