Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Appier's stock initially surged 20% following strong Q2 results but later declined 25%, influenced by small-cap stock volatility, AI-induced valuations, and e-commerce sensitivity.</li>
<li>The AI company's competitive position remains strong compared to Braze; the differing stock price performance and valuation suggests significant upside.</li>
<li>Appier's thesis remains intact and we expect the company to benefit from key trends in consumer marketing, first-party data and AI solutions.</li>
</ul>


Appier's stock initially surged 20% following strong Q2 results but later declined 25%, influenced by small-cap stock volatility, AI-induced valuations, and e-commerce sensitivity.
The AI company's competitive position remains strong compared to Braze; the differing stock price performance and valuation suggests significant upside.
Appier's thesis remains intact and we expect the company to benefit from key trends in consumer marketing, first-party data and AI solutions.


<ul>
<li>Strong Q2 results with revenue +42% yoy versus +33% in Q1</li>
<li>Gross margin expansion to 51.3% on improving AI algorithm performance</li>
<li>Stock down around 20% over past couple of months, No change to bullish growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>


Strong Q2 results with revenue +42% yoy versus +33% in Q1
Gross margin expansion to 51.3% on improving AI algorithm performance
Stock down around 20% over past couple of months, No change to bullish growth forecasts.


<ul>
<li>Appier achieved 32% revenue growth and 50.1% gross margin in Q1 FY23, exceeding company expectations</li>
<li>We expect the pace of growth to accelerate, driven by stronger momentum in Digital Content in Q2 and Q3</li>
<li>We remain bullish following the recent pullback in the share price. Stock is attractive at 5x EV/Rev</li>
</ul>


Appier achieved 32% revenue growth and 50.1% gross margin in Q1 FY23, exceeding company expectations
We expect the pace of growth to accelerate, driven by stronger momentum in Digital Content in Q2 and Q3
We remain bullish following the recent pullback in the share price. Stock is attractive at 5x EV/Rev


<ul>
<li>ChatGPT has focused the investment community on the potential of AI to drive business performance and investment returns.</li>
<li>Forbes picked Adobe as its top AI pick in 2023. We pick Appier, which is a faster-growing alternative in the digital marketing space.</li>
<li>Appier’s revenue grew by over 50% last year and unlike many SaaS companies, it is profitable.</li>
</ul>


ChatGPT has focused the investment community on the potential of AI to drive business performance and investment returns.
Forbes picked Adobe as its top AI pick in 2023. We pick Appier, which is a faster-growing alternative in the digital marketing space.
Appier’s revenue grew by over 50% last year and unlike many SaaS companies, it is profitable.


Appier (4180) | It's Doubled, so What's Next

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group (4180 JP)</a> had been among our picks for TSE Prime promotion and we had recommended positioning for it. That worked. On 8 Dec they announced the promotion.</li>
<li>The company is now part of TSE Prime which means a TOPIX Inclusion at end-January and an upweight in April. More than 20% of TSE float to buy by end-April.</li>
<li>Share price performance has not kept pace with potential, and yesterday's BOJ decision saw a flurry of volume selling (bailing). Pre-IPO holder overhang may be the biggest "risk" here.</li>
</ul>



Appier Group (4180 JP) had been among our picks for TSE Prime promotion and we had recommended positioning for it. That worked. On 8 Dec they announced the promotion.
The company is now part of TSE Prime which means a TOPIX Inclusion at end-January and an upweight in April. More than 20% of TSE float to buy by end-April.
Share price performance has not kept pace with potential, and yesterday's BOJ decision saw a flurry of volume selling (bailing). Pre-IPO holder overhang may be the biggest "risk" here.


Appier (4180) - Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk

Japan

Appier Group, Inc. provides artificial intelligence software as a service (AISaaS) services based on data-driven decisions. The Company offers data analysis for potential users predicting and acquiring, relationships building and maintaining, purchasing and action motivation, audience intelligence, and more. Appier Group serves clients across Asian.

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Appier Group (4180 JP)

Appier (4180) | The Ups and Downs

Appier's stock has declined due to small-cap stock volatility and AI-induced valuations, despite its strong competitive position and potential...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Be Happier

Strong Q2 results with revenue +42% yoy versus +33% in Q1, Revenue accelerates on strong e-commerce, digital marketing. Stock has pulled back to...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Another Positive Quarter

We remain bullish on Appier. The first quarter results re-affirm our view that the company will see continued growth in sales, driven by its core...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | It's Doubled, so What's Next

Appier Group (4180 JP) stock price has more than doubled since we first wrote about the company a year ago. We remain bullish.

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) - Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk

The Appier IPO Price (¥1600) plus ¥100 has been strong resistance this year. Tuesday's BOJ surprise saw a sharp high-volume selldown. Paper hands...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Appier (4180) | The Ups and Downs

​Appier's stock has declined due to small-cap stock volatility and AI-induced valuations, despite its strong competitive position and potential...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Be Happier

Strong Q2 results with revenue +42% yoy versus +33% in Q1, Revenue accelerates on strong e-commerce, digital marketing. Stock has pulled back to...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | Another Positive Quarter

We remain bullish on Appier. The first quarter results re-affirm our view that the company will see continued growth in sales, driven by its core...

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) | It's Doubled, so What's Next

Appier Group (4180 JP) stock price has more than doubled since we first wrote about the company a year ago. We remain bullish.

Mark Chadwick

Appier (4180) - Down But Not Out; Shareholder Structure Still The Biggest Risk

The Appier IPO Price (¥1600) plus ¥100 has been strong resistance this year. Tuesday's BOJ surprise saw a sharp high-volume selldown. Paper hands...

Travis Lundy

Appier's stock has declined due to small-cap stock volatility and AI-induced valuations, despite its strong competitive position and potential...