Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. </li>
<li>As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200</li>
<li>Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.


Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

<ul>
<li>In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.</li>
<li>The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.</li>
<li>Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.
The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.
Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.


Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.


S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. There are some developments that leave us wanting more, but we are inching toward an outright bullish outlook. In today’s report we outline our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Materials, and Manufacturing: Biotech, Large-Cap, Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified, and Fluid Technology &amp; Power.

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. There are some developments that leave us wanting more, but we are inching toward an outright bullish outlook. In today’s report we outline our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Materials, and Manufacturing: Biotech, Large-Cap, Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified, and Fluid Technology &amp; Power.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Testing Critical Resistance; Downgrading Communications

United States

Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. distributes bearings and seals, power transmission and fluid power components, hydraulic and pneumatic components, industrial rubber products, linear components, and general maintenance items. The Company also provides engineering design and systems integration services, as well as mechanical, fabricated rubber, and fluid power shop services.

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Applied Industrial Tech (AIT US)

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Dow $DJI Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 ahead of FOMC. Breadth continues to improve within the Russell 2000 $IWM, and breadth improving within...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

Bear market rally remains in play if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on $SPX, and if $162-$163 holds on $IWM. Longer-term, this is still a bear...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

We continue to see more evidence suggesting the lows are in; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. 4-month downtrend reversal for...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Testing Critical Resistance; Downgrading Communications

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based...

Vermilion Research

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