Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL


Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the September 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (3rd September 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be made after the close on Friday.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&amp;A events which affect the index the next two quarters).</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the September 2025 index rebal event will be based on yesterday's (3rd September 2025) opening prices. The announcement will be made after the close on Friday.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for ADDs/DELs (along with a tracker of all live spinoff/M&amp;A events which affect the index the next two quarters).


[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Final Predictions

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emcor-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20703:1" rel="noopener">Emcor Group Inc (EME US)</a> are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> is forecasted to be the third addition, with sector balance acting as the limiting factor.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> recently regained eligibility following positive August earnings and could be a surprise addition if the tech sector is excluded.</li>
</ul>



Robinhood Markets (HOOD US) and Emcor Group Inc (EME US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.

Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) or AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to be the third addition, with sector balance acting as the limiting factor.

CRH (CRH US) recently regained eligibility following positive August earnings and could be a surprise addition if the tech sector is excluded.


S&P500 September 2025 Final Forecast: HOOD, EME & 50/50 on MSTR/APP

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> will join both the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>


September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. Pop Mart (9992 HK) will join both the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> became eligible for inclusion in S&amp;P500 following its quarterly earnings of $10bn on 31 July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> are the main candidates for addition from TMI at the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interactive-brokers-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13335:1" rel="noopener">Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emcor-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20703:1" rel="noopener">Emcor Group Inc (EME US)</a> are the main candidates for addition from MidCap at the September 2025 review.</li>
</ul>



Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) became eligible for inclusion in S&amp;P500 following its quarterly earnings of $10bn on 31 July.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD US), Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US), and AppLovin (APP US) are the main candidates for addition from TMI at the September 2025 review.

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) and Emcor Group Inc (EME US) are the main candidates for addition from MidCap at the September 2025 review.


S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings

United States

AppLovin Corporation provides software solutions. The Company offers an end-to-end software that optimizes monetization, and uses machine learning to make data-driven marketing decisions for profitable growth. AppLovin serves clients worldwide.

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AppLovin (APP US)

Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Final Predictions

The S&P500/400/600 Sep Rebal cutoff was decided at y/day's open. S&P500 predictions are like tilting at windmills, but we like windmills. We...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 September 2025 Final Forecast: HOOD, EME & 50/50 on MSTR/APP

HOOD and EME are the top candidates for addition with MSTR or APP forecasted as the third addition. CRH became eligible again following positive...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings

MSTR is now eligible for S&P500 inclusion after reporting $10bn in Q2 earnings on July 31, joining HOOD, IBKR, EME and APP among the top candidates...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Final Predictions

The S&P500/400/600 Sep Rebal cutoff was decided at y/day's open. S&P500 predictions are like tilting at windmills, but we like windmills. We...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 September 2025 Final Forecast: HOOD, EME & 50/50 on MSTR/APP

​HOOD and EME are the top candidates for addition with MSTR or APP forecasted as the third addition. CRH became eligible again following positive...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings

MSTR is now eligible for S&P500 inclusion after reporting $10bn in Q2 earnings on July 31, joining HOOD, IBKR, EME and APP among the top candidates...

Dimitris Ioannidis

HOOD and EME are the top candidates for addition with MSTR or APP forecasted as the third addition. CRH became eligible again following positive...