Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in South32, Sayona, ANZ, Santos, CSL, BHP, Woolworths.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in South32, Sayona, ANZ, Santos, CSL, BHP, Woolworths.


ASX Short Interest Weekly: South32, Sayona, ANZ, Santos, CSL, BHP, Woolworths

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sydney Airport ASX200 exclusion sets up with Telix Pharma replacing it, and two more likely changes - one each in ASX50 and ASX100.</li>
<li>Telix as an inclusion is a known known. The others are too.</li>
<li>Sydney Airport will end up seeing a LOT of stock for sale on 9 Feb at the close.</li>
</ul>


The Sydney Airport ASX200 exclusion sets up with Telix Pharma replacing it, and two more likely changes - one each in ASX50 and ASX100.
Telix as an inclusion is a known known. The others are too.
Sydney Airport will end up seeing a LOT of stock for sale on 9 Feb at the close.


S&P/ASX200: Sydney Airport OUT Telix Pharma IN, and Lots of SYD For Sale

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P DJI Index team announced the replacement for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> when it is deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX200 Friday at the close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> </li>
<li>There are other changes to sub-indices which are not publicly announced but which should align with previous analysis</li>
<li>This insight provides estimates for the index events Friday and ways to play them.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P DJI Index team announced the replacement for Ausnet Services (AST AU) when it is deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX200 Friday at the close: Arena Reit (ARF AU) 
There are other changes to sub-indices which are not publicly announced but which should align with previous analysis
This insight provides estimates for the index events Friday and ways to play them.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There will also be the large <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a> acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a>. </li>
<li>Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of Ausnet Services (AST AU) and Sydney Airport (SYD AU). 
There will also be the large BHP Group (BHP AU) upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the Afterpay Touch (APT AU) acquisition by Square Inc (SQ US). 
Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.


ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

In mid-late June, the two largest Listed Investment Corporations in Australia - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> - announced plans to merge, with SOL (a.k.a. "WHSP") becoming the surviving entity. 
This was discussed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/whsp-s-proposed-merger-with-milton-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53422" rel="noopener">WHSP's Proposed Merger With Milton Corp</a> and by myself in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-merger-is-a-most-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53464" rel="noopener">Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-whsp-merger-index-implications-and-the-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53551" rel="noopener">Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb</a>. 
It is a complicated deal. 
Milton had been trading at a discount to NAV, where NAV was 97% or so listed stocks. WHSP had been trading at a premium to NAV. WHSP agreed to pay a premium to NAV for MLT shares, but the construct provided for some really interesting other optionality (some positive, a little negative) for MLT shareholders. 
In early July, Milton announced its NAV at A$5.50/share and assuming it is exactly A$5.5000/share, the Quiddity Milton Model was off by 0.16%. When it released its top 20 stock and weights list which showed about A$50-60mm of adjustments to positions since 31 Dec 2020 within the top 20 names, that lowered the NAV miss to about 0.07% and that is probably a matter of timing and stray dividend income or a mark on its private assets.
Interestingly, as WHSP rose 10% then came back a bit, and Milton rose with it, but the Milton NAV did not rise much, the "spread to terms" has stayed reasonably stable except for some near-market-close shenanigans at times. 
But it still feels like people don't get it. 
There's some really interesting convexity here. Still.
And the supply/demand tilt is remarkable.

In mid-late June, the two largest Listed Investment Corporations in Australia - Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) - announced plans to merge, with SOL (a.k.a. "WHSP") becoming the surviving entity. 
This was discussed by David Blennerhassett in WHSP's Proposed Merger With Milton Corp and by myself in Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb and Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb. 
It is a complicated deal. 
Milton had been trading at a discount to NAV, where NAV was 97% or so listed stocks. WHSP had been trading at a premium to NAV. WHSP agreed to pay a premium to NAV for MLT shares, but the construct provided for some really interesting other optionality (some positive, a little negative) for MLT shareholders. 
In early July, Milton announced its NAV at A$5.50/share and assuming it is exactly A$5.5000/share, the Quiddity Milton Model was off by 0.16%. When it released its top 20 stock and weights list which showed about A$50-60mm of adjustments to positions since 31 Dec 2020 within the top 20 names, that lowered the NAV miss to about 0.07% and that is probably a matter of timing and stray dividend income or a mark on its private assets.
Interestingly, as WHSP rose 10% then came back a bit, and Milton rose with it, but the Milton NAV did not rise much, the "spread to terms" has stayed reasonably stable except for some near-market-close shenanigans at times. 
But it still feels like people don't get it. 
There's some really interesting convexity here. Still.
And the supply/demand tilt is remarkable.

Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously

Australia

ARB Corporation Ltd. distributes and sells motor vehicles accessories and light metal engineering works for four wheel drive vehicles.  ARB produces bull bars, rear step tow bars, turbochargers, winches and related recovery equipment. ARB's main export product is the 'Air Locker', a lockable 4-wheel drive pneumatic differential system.

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ARB Corp Ltd (ARB AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly: South32, Sayona, ANZ, Santos, CSL, BHP, Woolworths

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in South32, Sayona, ANZ, Santos, CSL, BHP, Woolworths.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX200: Sydney Airport OUT Telix Pharma IN, and Lots of SYD For Sale

SYD is out of ASX200 and Telix is in. That also means changes in ASX50 and ASX100 for which expected changes are noted here. This is a big selldown...

Travis Lundy

S&P/ASX200 - Ausnet OUT, Arena REIT IN

The S&P/ASX 200 will see Ausnet replaced by Arena REIT on 4 Feb. This is widely expected/predicted and Arena has outperformed, but it is a lot of...

Travis Lundy

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously

The Marvelous Milton Merger Arb is still trading slightly wide on a "straight arb" basis. On a "true arb" basis including optionality, it is...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASX Short Interest Weekly: South32, Sayona, ANZ, Santos, CSL, BHP, Woolworths

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in South32, Sayona, ANZ, Santos, CSL, BHP, Woolworths.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX200: Sydney Airport OUT Telix Pharma IN, and Lots of SYD For Sale

SYD is out of ASX200 and Telix is in. That also means changes in ASX50 and ASX100 for which expected changes are noted here. This is a big selldown...

Travis Lundy

S&P/ASX200 - Ausnet OUT, Arena REIT IN

The S&P/ASX 200 will see Ausnet replaced by Arena REIT on 4 Feb. This is widely expected/predicted and Arena has outperformed, but it is a lot of...

Travis Lundy

ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously

The Marvelous Milton Merger Arb is still trading slightly wide on a "straight arb" basis. On a "true arb" basis including optionality, it is...

Travis Lundy

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March