Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ArcelorMittal's first quarter 2025 performance presents a mixed bag of accomplishments and ongoing challenges.</li><li>Safety remains a major priority, with the company focusing on implementing strategic changes to achieve zero fatalities and serious injuries, aiming for complete transformation over a three-year period.</li><li>Financially, the quarter exhibited robust operational performance with strong cash flows, particularly highlighted by exceptional results from the company's Mining segment in Liberia.</li></ul>

ArcelorMittal's first quarter 2025 performance presents a mixed bag of accomplishments and ongoing challenges.Safety remains a major priority, with the company focusing on implementing strategic changes to achieve zero fatalities and serious injuries, aiming for complete transformation over a three-year period.Financially, the quarter exhibited robust operational performance with strong cash flows, particularly highlighted by exceptional results from the company's Mining segment in Liberia.

ArcelorMittal: Initiation of Coverage- Why Its EAF Ramp-Up & Trade Tailwinds Are Fueling a Steel Revival!

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcelormittal-sa-8b816bb6-eb73-416f-a30a-56f93d1deb03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38577:1" rel="noopener">ArcelorMittal (MT US)</a> reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.</li>
<li>Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. </li>
<li>Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> </li>
</ul>



ArcelorMittal (MT US) reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.
Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. 
Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) 


ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

<ul>
<li>Funding not a hurdle: Promoter strength provides comfort despite past negative precedents.</li>
<li>Valuation undemanding: Entry at ~US$440–475/t is below replacement cost and past cycle-peak deals.</li>
<li>Execution heavy: Success depends on managing restructuring, integration, and EU policy commitments.</li>
</ul>


Funding not a hurdle: Promoter strength provides comfort despite past negative precedents.
Valuation undemanding: Entry at ~US$440–475/t is below replacement cost and past cycle-peak deals.
Execution heavy: Success depends on managing restructuring, integration, and EU policy commitments.


Naveen Jindal’s Bid for Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe – Sensible Valuation, Execution Critical

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Nippon Steel Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nippon Steel targets over 100 Mt capacity by 2030, focusing on global growth as Japan’s domestic demand shrinks.</li>
<li>It plans to acquire U.S. Steel for $14.9B and expand in India via AMNS joint ventures.</li>
<li>FY24 profit rose 36%, but export reliance, ESG lag, and U.S. deal hurdles pose risks.</li>
</ul>


Nippon Steel targets over 100 Mt capacity by 2030, focusing on global growth as Japan’s domestic demand shrinks.
It plans to acquire U.S. Steel for $14.9B and expand in India via AMNS joint ventures.
FY24 profit rose 36%, but export reliance, ESG lag, and U.S. deal hurdles pose risks.


Nippon Steel (5401 JP): Navigating Decline at Home, Expanding Abroad

United States

ArcelorMittal produces steel. The Company manufactures cold rolled, electrogalvanized and coated steels, slabs, bars, and wire rods. ArcelorMittal serves customers worldwide.

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ArcelorMittal (MT US)

ArcelorMittal: Initiation of Coverage- Why Its EAF Ramp-Up & Trade Tailwinds Are Fueling a Steel Revival!

ArcelorMittal's first quarter 2025 performance presents a mixed bag of accomplishments and ongoing challenges. Safety remains a major priority,...

Baptista Research