Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from <a href="http://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp52" target="_blank"> Harvard Study</a>, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and neo-Keynesian piece of work, wants to do away with the $100 bill based on evidence most big bills are used for criminal purposes.Citing work by Harvard colleagues from  Harvard Study, Summers is fully armed, failing of course to realize that criminals were around before him and will continue to launder money for a long time to come, even if they have to do…

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Commission) on December 11, 2015 proposed new Rule 18f-4 (Proposed Rule) under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (1940 Act) and amendments to certain proposed forms. The proposal relates to the use of derivatives and other transactions by registered investment companies – open-end funds, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and closed-end funds – and business development companies (BDCs) (collectively, funds).

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Commission) on December 11, 2015 proposed new Rule 18f-4 (Proposed Rule) under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (1940 Act) and amendments to certain proposed forms. The proposal relates to the use of derivatives and other transactions by registered investment companies – open-end funds, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and closed-end funds – and business development companies (BDCs) (collectively, funds).

SEC Proposes Significant New Restrictions on the Use of Derivatives (Etc) By Registered Funds

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li>Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors.</li><li>Financial crises are rarely driven by economic shocks alone. Nonmacro factors embedded in the regulatory, competitive, political, and economic environments are bigger contributors to banking crises.</li><li>Leverage can be moat-destructive. Given the hefty amounts of financial and operating leverage in the business models of Financial Services firms, it is critical to focus on firms with stable management teams, consistent business strategies, and selective mergers and acquisitions policies.</li><li>Transformative deals are rarely moat-enhancing. With relationships, reputations and business culture all being critical contributors to business success, it is rare to see a firm pull off a "transformative" deal that does not disrupt one of these pillars, which is why most acquisitions fall short of their original intent.</li></ul>Analyst: Greggory Warren, CFA

Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors.Financial crises are rarely driven by economic shocks alone. Nonmacro factors embedded in the regulatory, competitive, political, and economic environments are bigger contributors to banking crises.Leverage can be moat-destructive. Given the hefty amounts of financial and operating leverage in the business models of Financial Services firms, it is critical to focus on firms with stable management teams, consistent business strategies, and selective mergers and acquisitions policies.Transformative deals are rarely moat-enhancing. With relationships, reputations and business culture all being critical contributors to business success, it is rare to see a firm pull off a "transformative" deal that does not disrupt one of these pillars, which is why most acquisitions fall short of their original intent.Analyst: Greggory Warren, CFA

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

What happens to the Gulf if oil prices stay lower for longer?

In the wake of what looks to be the second most deadly terror attack since 9/11 (the first being the horror that was Beslan), we look at the&nbsp;local and regional ramifications.&nbsp; It does not make for cheerful reading as the terrorist threat continues to evolve and extend its tendrils, with a&nbsp;nuanced response needed. Egyptians are working hard and I hope they pull through. This also highlights the severe geopolitical risk in the region, which I believe is the highest in a decade, even as OPEC spare capacity is at 08 lows.

In the wake of what looks to be the second most deadly terror attack since 9/11 (the first being the horror that was Beslan), we look at the&nbsp;local and regional ramifications.&nbsp;  It does not make for cheerful reading as the terrorist threat continues to evolve and extend its tendrils, with a&nbsp;nuanced response needed. Egyptians are working hard and I hope they pull through.  This also highlights the severe geopolitical risk in the region, which I believe is the highest in a decade, even as OPEC spare capacity is at 08 lows.

United States

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based insurance and financial services company that provides reinsurance and insurance products on a worldwide basis.

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Arch Capital (ACGL US)

Keynesian Brain Twister: What Happens When We Get Inflation & Negative Rates?

Short answer: We get more Larry Summers editorials.Long answer…Larry Summers, a key accidental architect of Wall Street’s GFC of 2008-09 and...

Charles De Trenck

SEC Proposes Significant New Restrictions on the Use of Derivatives (Etc) By Registered Funds

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Commission) on December 11, 2015 proposed new Rule 18f-4 (Proposed Rule) under the Investment Company...

Dechert LLP

Breaking the Bank

Balance sheet strength, management acuity, and regulatory systems matter more for financial services firms than other stock sectors. Financial...

Morningstar, Inc.

What happens to the Gulf if oil prices stay lower for longer?

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region...

Emad Mostaque

Egypt on the brink

In the wake of what looks to be the second most deadly terror attack since 9/11 (the first being the horror that was Beslan), we look at the local...

Emad Mostaque

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