IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$174 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/integral-corporation-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:110936" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/integral-corporation-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111035" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss forecasts and valuation. Our analysis suggests that the indicative IPO price range of JPY2,800-3,400 per share is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.</li>
</ul>



Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is an independent Japanese private equity firm seeking to raise about US$174 million. The pricing is on 4 September, and the listing is on 20 September. 
We previously discussed the IPO in Integral Corporation IPO: The Bull Case and Integral Corporation IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, we discuss forecasts and valuation. Our analysis suggests that the indicative IPO price range of JPY2,800-3,400 per share is unattractive. We would give the IPO a pass.


Integral Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a> has announced it will acquire stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g-j-steel-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14759:1" rel="noopener">G J Steel Pcl (GJS TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g-steel-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18121:1" rel="noopener">G Steel Pcl (GSTEL TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Nippon Steel has signed share and purchase agreements with the alternative investment unit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ares-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28771:1" rel="noopener">Ares Management Corp (ARES US)</a>, the major shareholder of both Thai electric-furnace steelmakers. </li>
<li>Completion of the agreements will trigger Mandatory Tender Offers for both companies. These Offers will be unconditional. </li>
</ul>



Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) has announced it will acquire stakes in G J Steel Pcl (GJS TB) and G Steel Pcl (GSTEL TB).
Nippon Steel has signed share and purchase agreements with the alternative investment unit of Ares Management Corp (ARES US), the major shareholder of both Thai electric-furnace steelmakers. 
Completion of the agreements will trigger Mandatory Tender Offers for both companies. These Offers will be unconditional. 


Nippon Steel's Mandatory Offers For Thailand's GJ Steel and G Steel

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

Advanced Micro Devices / Technical Analysis

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Aussie wealth manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> has <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02301765-2A1260088?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it has received an indicative, non-binding, conditional proposal from US-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ares-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28771:1" rel="noopener">Ares Management Corp (ARES US)</a>, by way of a Scheme. No price was mentioned.
The take-private proposal follows a tortuous period for what was once an Australian icon.  The final report of a royal commission last year exposed damaging internal practices - such as billing deceased customers and lying to regulators - culminating in net cash outflow and the exit of Catherine Brenner (chairman) and Brian Salter (group counsel).
Amidst the ongoing net outflow - which has continued into the 3Q20 - chairman David Murray resigned in August over his handling of a sexual harassment issue. Director John Fraser also resigned.
After completing the sale of its life insurance business to Resolution Life on the 1 July this year, AMP's chairman Debra Hazelton announced on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02276147-2A1247501?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2 September</a> that the company was undertaking a review of its assets and businesses after receiving unsolicited interest in both. It is not clear whether Ares is interested in selected parts or the whole package.
Shares are up 20% as I type.
More below the fold.

Aussie wealth manager AMP Ltd (AMP AU) has announced it has received an indicative, non-binding, conditional proposal from US-based Ares Management Corp (ARES US), by way of a Scheme. No price was mentioned.
The take-private proposal follows a tortuous period for what was once an Australian icon.  The final report of a royal commission last year exposed damaging internal practices - such as billing deceased customers and lying to regulators - culminating in net cash outflow and the exit of Catherine Brenner (chairman) and Brian Salter (group counsel).
Amidst the ongoing net outflow - which has continued into the 3Q20 - chairman David Murray resigned in August over his handling of a sexual harassment issue. Director John Fraser also resigned.
After completing the sale of its life insurance business to Resolution Life on the 1 July this year, AMP's chairman Debra Hazelton announced on the 2 September that the company was undertaking a review of its assets and businesses after receiving unsolicited interest in both. It is not clear whether Ares is interested in selected parts or the whole package.
Shares are up 20% as I type.
More below the fold. 

United States

Ares Management Corporation operates as an asset management firm. The Firm focuses on tradable credit, direct lending, private equity, and real estate markets. The Company also invest in all levels of a company capital structure-from senior debt to common equity. Ares Management serves university endowments, pension and sovereign wealth funds, banks, and insurance companies.

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Ares Management (ARES US)

Integral Corporation IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we discuss forecasts and valuation. Our analysis suggests that the indicative IPO price range of JPY2,800-3,400 per share is...

Arun George

Nippon Steel's Mandatory Offers For Thailand's GJ Steel and G Steel

This looks done - play the spread here. I see the gross/annualised spread at 3.2%/14.4% assuming late Paril completion. That looks okay for what...

David Blennerhassett

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

Emerging markets (EEM) appear to be bottoming; one attractive buy candidate is JD.com (JD). We also highlight buy opportunities within Energy...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

AMP: Ares' Proposal For The Once Mighty

Private equity firm Ares Management is in talks to buy embattled wealth manager AMP, via a break-up of the 171-year-old company, or full control.

David Blennerhassett

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