Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

Advanced Micro Devices / Technical Analysis

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Increasing Systemic Risks:Events are moving quickly and the fluidity of this pandemic has created a destructive amount of market volatility, which likely is the new normal given issues Quant Funds, illiquidity, the lack of US preparation and global leadership, and the corporate bond market are all becoming systemic risks.</li>
<li> Global Recession Already Underway: A global recession is already well underway, which should worsen given how much this pandemic is having on consumer confidence.  </li>
<li>Financial Stability Called Into Question:The global market rout is calling financial stability into question. This crisis of confidence and increased likelihood of waterfall of losses that will make for a VERY toxic cocktail – especially considering that many names are still not profitable on an operating basis.   </li>
</ul>



Increasing Systemic Risks:Events are moving quickly and the fluidity of this pandemic has created a destructive amount of market volatility, which likely is the new normal given issues Quant Funds, illiquidity, the lack of US preparation and global leadership, and the corporate bond market are all becoming systemic risks.
 Global Recession Already Underway: A global recession is already well underway, which should worsen given how much this pandemic is having on consumer confidence.  
Financial Stability Called Into Question:The global market rout is calling financial stability into question. This crisis of confidence and increased likelihood of waterfall of losses that will make for a VERY toxic cocktail – especially considering that many names are still not profitable on an operating basis.   


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Uncertainty regarding private credit has become one of the biggest risk factors facing global investors including in Korea.</li>
<li>Samsung Securities serves as a primary distributor for Blackstone's private credit funds (such as BCRED) in Korea.</li>
<li>In late 2022, Samsung Life and Samsung Fire &amp; Marine committed $650 million to Blackstone-managed alternative funds. </li>
</ul>


Uncertainty regarding private credit has become one of the biggest risk factors facing global investors including in Korea.
Samsung Securities serves as a primary distributor for Blackstone's private credit funds (such as BCRED) in Korea.
In late 2022, Samsung Life and Samsung Fire &amp; Marine committed $650 million to Blackstone-managed alternative funds. 


Samsung Life, Samsung F&M Insurance, & Samsung Securities - Exposure to Blackstone's Private Credit?

Opportunities in Semi-Liquid Private Market, The Fund Review

The Fund Review

Opportunities in Semi-Liquid Private Market

The Fund Review provides data and  high-quality research on Alternative Investment Funds. We write detailed reports with thoughtful, clear and honest opinions to support investors’ due diligence and investment selection. Our focus is on private asset funds across infrastructure, real estate, private credit and private equity.

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Outperformance among private market fund managers shows persistence, with top -quartile performers likely to maintain strong results across successive fund vintages</li>
<li>This report identifies the subset of managers consistently delivering first quartile returns across asset classes</li>
<li>Several top -performing managers also offer evergreen fund structures, improving accessibility for non-US investors</li>
</ul>


Outperformance among private market fund managers shows persistence, with top -quartile performers likely to maintain strong results across successive fund vintages
This report identifies the subset of managers consistently delivering first quartile returns across asset classes
Several top -performing managers also offer evergreen fund structures, improving accessibility for non-US investors


Private Markets Fund Managers:  Looking for Consistent Outperformance (Sector Review | Q2 2025)

United States

Ares Management Corporation operates as an asset management firm. The Firm focuses on tradable credit, direct lending, private equity, and real estate markets. The Company also invest in all levels of a company capital structure-from senior debt to common equity. Ares Management serves university endowments, pension and sovereign wealth funds, banks, and insurance companies.

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Ares Management (ARES US)

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

Emerging markets (EEM) appear to be bottoming; one attractive buy candidate is JD.com (JD). We also highlight buy opportunities within Energy...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

Toxic Cocktail

Increasing Systemic Risks:Events are moving quickly and the fluidity of this pandemic has created a destructive amount of market volatility,...

Thomas J. Monaco

Samsung Life, Samsung F&M Insurance, & Samsung Securities - Exposure to Blackstone's Private Credit?

In this insight, we discuss about Samsung Securities, Samsung Life Insurance, and Samsung F&M Insurance that have exposure to Blackstone's private...

Douglas Kim

Private Markets Fund Managers: Looking for Consistent Outperformance (Sector Review | Q2 2025)

Outperformance among private market fund managers shows persistence, with top -quartile performers likely to maintain strong results across...

The Fund Review

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