New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Argosy Property (ARG) reported FY26 Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) up +8% on the prior year with developments, fixed and market rent growth, and lower interest costs all contributing.</li><li>However, softer tenant demand, vacant development completions, and higher interest costs weighed on the outlook, with ARG guiding to flat distributions in FY27.</li><li>With brownfield developments on hold, the focus is now on portfolio management; specifically leasing up vacancy and selling down non-core assets.</li></ul>

Argosy Property (ARG) reported FY26 Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) up +8% on the prior year with developments, fixed and market rent growth, and lower interest costs all contributing.However, softer tenant demand, vacant development completions, and higher interest costs weighed on the outlook, with ARG guiding to flat distributions in FY27.With brownfield developments on hold, the focus is now on portfolio management; specifically leasing up vacancy and selling down non-core assets.

Argosy FY26 Result—Lack of Wind in the Sails

<ul><li>Argosy (ARG) reported FY26 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of NZ59.1m, up +8% on the prior year but -2% vs. our expectations.</li><li>ARG recorded a revaluation gain of NZ$59m (+2.7%) across its property portfolio with 10bps of cap rate compression (mostly industrial which recorded 15bps of compression) and the gain on sale of 4 Henderson Place.</li><li>Balance sheet gearing lifted to 37.2% from 35.9% at 1H26 but reduces 36.1% on settlement of Henderson Place and Lambton Quay divestments (30-40% target range).</li></ul>

Argosy (ARG) reported FY26 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of NZ59.1m, up +8% on the prior year but -2% vs. our expectations.ARG recorded a revaluation gain of NZ$59m (+2.7%) across its property portfolio with 10bps of cap rate compression (mostly industrial which recorded 15bps of compression) and the gain on sale of 4 Henderson Place.Balance sheet gearing lifted to 37.2% from 35.9% at 1H26 but reduces 36.1% on settlement of Henderson Place and Lambton Quay divestments (30-40% target range).

Argosy (ARG): FY26 Result – Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>After adjusting for a one-off lease surrender payment, Argosy's (ARG) 1H26 result was largely in line with expectations.</li><li>Divestment of non-core assets has been slower than anticipated, but better momentum is expected in 2H26/FY27.</li><li>Balance-sheet gearing of 35.9% rises to 38.3% on a committed basis, and we estimate non-core asset sales will provide just enough headroom to complete the Mt Richmond and East Tamaki Dr developments before any valuation uplift (ARG believes valuations have bottomed) and dividend reinvestment.</li></ul>

After adjusting for a one-off lease surrender payment, Argosy's (ARG) 1H26 result was largely in line with expectations.Divestment of non-core assets has been slower than anticipated, but better momentum is expected in 2H26/FY27.Balance-sheet gearing of 35.9% rises to 38.3% on a committed basis, and we estimate non-core asset sales will provide just enough headroom to complete the Mt Richmond and East Tamaki Dr developments before any valuation uplift (ARG believes valuations have bottomed) and dividend reinvestment.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The listed property sector had a second consecutive positive month in June as Middle East tensions and inflation pressures eased.</li><li>However, it has still been a first half to forget, with the sector underperforming the wider market by <em>c.</em>5%.</li><li>Sector valuations remain attractive, trading on a -21% discount to NTA and an 8.2% gross yield.</li></ul>

The listed property sector had a second consecutive positive month in June as Middle East tensions and inflation pressures eased.However, it has still been a first half to forget, with the sector underperforming the wider market by c.5%.Sector valuations remain attractive, trading on a -21% discount to NTA and an 8.2% gross yield.

Real Estate Reflections: A First Half to Forget

<ul><li>March was another weak month for the sector as Middle East hostilities drove up interest rates.</li><li>Over the last six months, the property sector has swung from the third strongest six-month return over the last 30 years to the fifth largest decline.</li><li>In summary, share prices currently imply a c.5% long-bond yield, and we do not expect distributions will need to be cut.</li></ul>

March was another weak month for the sector as Middle East hostilities drove up interest rates.Over the last six months, the property sector has swung from the third strongest six-month return over the last 30 years to the fifth largest decline.In summary, share prices currently imply a c.5% long-bond yield, and we do not expect distributions will need to be cut.

New Zealand

Argosy Property Limited invests in and manages retail, commercial and industrial properties in New Zealand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Argosy Property (ARG NZ)

Argosy FY26 Result—Lack of Wind in the Sails

Argosy Property (ARG) reported FY26 Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) up +8% on the prior year with developments, fixed and market rent...

Forsyth Barr

Argosy (ARG): FY26 Result – Initial Thoughts

Argosy (ARG) reported FY26 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) of NZ59.1m, up +8% on the prior year but -2% vs. our expectations. ARG recorded a...

Forsyth Barr

Argosy 1H26 Result—On Course

After adjusting for a one-off lease surrender payment, Argosy's (ARG) 1H26 result was largely in line with expectations. Divestment of non-core...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: A First Half to Forget

The listed property sector had a second consecutive positive month in June as Middle East tensions and inflation pressures eased. However, it has...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections Whipsaw

March was another weak month for the sector as Middle East hostilities drove up interest rates. Over the last six months, the property sector has...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)