New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Rising cap rates result in portfolio devaluations: The portfolio revaluation loss was driven by portfolio cap rate expansion of +68bps (1H23: 17bps, 2H23: 51bps).</li><li>Devaluation more than priced in: The equity markets has already more than priced in this level of cap rate expansion/asset devaluation.</li><li>Eyes on the balance sheet: We estimate ARG's actual/committed gearing increases to c.35%/36% respectively, which is in the middle of management's target range of 30%–40%.</li></ul>

Rising cap rates result in portfolio devaluations: The portfolio revaluation loss was driven by portfolio cap rate expansion of +68bps (1H23: 17bps, 2H23: 51bps).Devaluation more than priced in: The equity markets has already more than priced in this level of cap rate expansion/asset devaluation.Eyes on the balance sheet: We estimate ARG's actual/committed gearing increases to c.35%/36% respectively, which is in the middle of management's target range of 30%–40%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Property sector underperforms the broader market: The NZ LPV sector was down -1.2% in March, underperforming the NZX50G which was broadly flat.</li><li>Cap rates starting to creep higher: Goodman (GMT), Investore (IPL), Kiwi Property (KPG) and Stride (SPG) have all reported 2H23 valuation movements ahead of their full year results in May</li><li>Balance sheets remain in the spotlight: Portfolio valuation changes also lifted loan-to-value ratios</li></ul>

Property sector underperforms the broader market: The NZ LPV sector was down -1.2% in March, underperforming the NZX50G which was broadly flat.Cap rates starting to creep higher: Goodman (GMT), Investore (IPL), Kiwi Property (KPG) and Stride (SPG) have all reported 2H23 valuation movements ahead of their full year results in MayBalance sheets remain in the spotlight: Portfolio valuation changes also lifted loan-to-value ratios

Real Estate Reflections: Cap Rates Creep Higher

<ul><li>Looking at the unlisted property syndicate sector: Property syndicates have become increasingly popular over the last decade as falling interest rates have (1) driven strong commercial property asset returns, and (2) made alternative yield-focussed investment more attractive</li><li>Syndicates could be a source of distress this cycle: Our analysis is based on 24 syndicates where financial information is publicly available</li><li>Prior cycles have resulted in new listed entities: In prior commercial property downcycles onerous debt obligations resulted in the merger and listing of some underperforming syndicates</li></ul>

Looking at the unlisted property syndicate sector: Property syndicates have become increasingly popular over the last decade as falling interest rates have (1) driven strong commercial property asset returns, and (2) made alternative yield-focussed investment more attractiveSyndicates could be a source of distress this cycle: Our analysis is based on 24 syndicates where financial information is publicly availablePrior cycles have resulted in new listed entities: In prior commercial property downcycles onerous debt obligations resulted in the merger and listing of some underperforming syndicates

Property Insights: Syndicates — All in This Together

<ul><li>Dust settles on February reporting season: Four property companies reported in February; Precinct Properties (PCT), Property for Industry (PFI), Winton (WIN) and Vital Healthcare (VHP). </li><li>Solid month for the property sector: The NZ LPV sector was up +1.6% in February, outperforming the NZX50 which was down -0.6%</li><li>Relative valuations looking attractive but only back to fairer value vs bond yields</li></ul>

Dust settles on February reporting season: Four property companies reported in February; Precinct Properties (PCT), Property for Industry (PFI), Winton (WIN) and Vital Healthcare (VHP). Solid month for the property sector: The NZ LPV sector was up +1.6% in February, outperforming the NZX50 which was down -0.6%Relative valuations looking attractive but only back to fairer value vs bond yields

Real Estate Reflections: Refurbishing the Monthly

<ul>
<li>Last year was a turbulent time for listed property vehicles (LPVs) - the sector was down -26% in the year as it adjusted to the higher interest rate environment</li>
<li>Valuations remain above historical relationships with bond yields, and the growth outlook has moderated</li>
<li>The sector is trading c-30% below its net asset backing but we consider this largely priced in.</li>
</ul>


Last year was a turbulent time for listed property vehicles (LPVs) - the sector was down -26% in the year as it adjusted to the higher interest rate environment
Valuations remain above historical relationships with bond yields, and the growth outlook has moderated
The sector is trading c-30% below its net asset backing but we consider this largely priced in.


Real Estate Reflections: Five Themes for the Year Ahead

New Zealand

Argosy Property Limited invests in and manages retail, commercial and industrial properties in New Zealand.

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Argosy Property (ARG NZ)

Argosy: Last of the March Revaluations

Argosy's (ARG) 2H23 draft revaluations resulted in a -5% reduction in the book value of its portfolio; Similar to its peers, +51bps expansion of...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Cap Rates Creep Higher

March was a mixed month for the property sector where interest rates are typically a key driver of LPV sector performance, but despite a -40bp fall...

Forsyth Barr

Property Insights: Syndicates — All in This Together

Our discussions with commercial property market participants highlighted syndicates as a particular area of concern in the current higher interest...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Refurbishing the Monthly

Listed property companies that reported in February saw strong operational results; While results were broadly in line with our expectations, we...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Five Themes for the Year Ahead

Last year was a turbulent time for listed property vehicles (LPVs) - the sector was down -26% in the year as it adjusted to the higher interest...

Forsyth Barr

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