Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.</li><li>Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.</li><li>I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.</li></ul>

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Arista Networks' results for the fourth quarter of 2024 reflect significant strides and some challenges in various segments.</li><li>The company reported revenue of $1.93 billion for the quarter, contributing to an annual growth of approximately 19.5%, surpassing its initial forecast of 10-12% amidst robust AI-related demand.</li><li>This performance helped achieve a non-GAAP operating margin of 47.5%, marking a solid financial standing.</li></ul>

Arista Networks' results for the fourth quarter of 2024 reflect significant strides and some challenges in various segments.The company reported revenue of $1.93 billion for the quarter, contributing to an annual growth of approximately 19.5%, surpassing its initial forecast of 10-12% amidst robust AI-related demand.This performance helped achieve a non-GAAP operating margin of 47.5%, marking a solid financial standing.

Arista Networks: Can its Cloud Titan Engagement & Expansion Bolster Growth In Foreseeable Future?

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entegris-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12493" rel="noopener">Entegris Inc (ENTG US)</a> - Memory spending is happening next year, but MSI remains weak.</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astera-labs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40921" rel="noopener">Astera Labs (ALAB US)</a> - This is now the second way to play a levered Trainium ramp, as they have extensive content with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>.</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lattice-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7855" rel="noopener">Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC US)</a> - Standard kitchen sink; I like the stock long-term.</li></ul>

Entegris Inc (ENTG US) - Memory spending is happening next year, but MSI remains weak.Astera Labs (ALAB US) - This is now the second way to play a levered Trainium ramp, as they have extensive content with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US).Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC US) - Standard kitchen sink; I like the stock long-term.

Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR

<ul><li>To make my content readable, this is an optics-only earnings update.</li><li>I will discuss everything together and put together a high-level overview.</li><li>The specific things I am interested in are Marvell’s ZR and custom silicon.</li></ul>

To make my content readable, this is an optics-only earnings update.I will discuss everything together and put together a high-level overview.The specific things I am interested in are Marvell’s ZR and custom silicon.

Optics Earnings (FN, ANET, COHR, LITE, AAOI)

United States

Arista Networks Inc. provides cloud networking solutions for data-centers and computer environments. The Company offers ethernet switches, pass-through cards, transceivers, cards, and enhanced operating systems. Arista also provides host adapter solutions and networking services and markets its products globally.

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Arista Networks (ANET US)

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings. Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia. I...

Fabricated Knowledge

Arista Networks: Can its Cloud Titan Engagement & Expansion Bolster Growth In Foreseeable Future?

Arista Networks' results for the fourth quarter of 2024 reflect significant strides and some challenges in various segments. The company reported...

Baptista Research

Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR

What a week (I’m a bit late on this)! I wanted to give a quick overview of all the companies that reported last week. Lattice Semiconductor -...

Fabricated Knowledge

Optics Earnings (FN, ANET, COHR, LITE, AAOI)

To make my content readable, this is an optics-only earnings update. I will discuss everything together and put together a high-level overview.

Fabricated Knowledge

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