Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.</li>
<li>I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. </li>
<li>So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.</li>
</ul>


ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Arm Holdings, a prominent player in the semiconductor industry, reported an optimistic set of results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, ending December 31, 2024.</li><li>The company achieved record revenue and a significant increase in royalty revenues, driven primarily by robust demand for AI technologies and the adoption of its latest Armv9 architecture and Compute Subsystem Solutions (CSS).</li><li>On the financial front, Arm's total revenue reached an all-time high of $983 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 19% and surpassing the high end of company guidance.</li></ul>

Arm Holdings, a prominent player in the semiconductor industry, reported an optimistic set of results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, ending December 31, 2024.The company achieved record revenue and a significant increase in royalty revenues, driven primarily by robust demand for AI technologies and the adoption of its latest Armv9 architecture and Compute Subsystem Solutions (CSS).On the financial front, Arm's total revenue reached an all-time high of $983 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 19% and surpassing the high end of company guidance.

ARM Holdings Plc.: Will Its Agentic AI Adoption & Transition To Chiplet-Based Architectures Make It A Formidable Player In Its Domain?

Podcast by Dom Cooke to explore big businesses, Business Breakdowns

Business Breakdowns

Podcast by Dom Cooke to explore big businesses

Learn how companies work from the people who know them best. We do deep research and interview industry veterans, investment professionals, and corporate executives to explain the inner workings of public stocks and private businesses. For each company, we break down their history, business model, financial statements, secret sauce, and bull/bear case. We believe every business has lessons to teach us and Breakdowns is here to highlight them. Learn more and stay up to date at www.joincolossus.com.

<ul><li>ARM licenses its intellectual property to companies that design chips, fitting into the broader semiconductor ecosystem</li><li>ARM's business model involves upfront license payments and royalties for chips shipped by licensees</li><li>ARM's CPU is a general-purpose chip, while GPUs are designed for specific tasks like graphics, illustrating the importance and interplay between the two architectures</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

ARM licenses its intellectual property to companies that design chips, fitting into the broader semiconductor ecosystemARM's business model involves upfront license payments and royalties for chips shipped by licenseesARM's CPU is a general-purpose chip, while GPUs are designed for specific tasks like graphics, illustrating the importance and interplay between the two architecturesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Arm: The Silicon Blueprint - [Business Breakdowns, EP.200]

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>’s 180-day lock-up period on its 89.75% <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> shareholding expires on 12 March. SoftBank’s stake is worth US$124 billion.</li>
<li>SoftBank will likely monetise its ARM stake using the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> playbook. This playbook uses prepaid forward contracts to raise capital with eventual settlement through shares. </li>
<li>ARM is currently trading 2.6x its IPO price on AI-driven hype. ARM trades at a premium multiple to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>, despite forecasted lower growth and margin.  </li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP)’s 180-day lock-up period on its 89.75% ARM Holdings (ARM US) shareholding expires on 12 March. SoftBank’s stake is worth US$124 billion.
SoftBank will likely monetise its ARM stake using the Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) playbook. This playbook uses prepaid forward contracts to raise capital with eventual settlement through shares. 
ARM is currently trading 2.6x its IPO price on AI-driven hype. ARM trades at a premium multiple to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), despite forecasted lower growth and margin.  


ARM Holdings (ARM US): Lock up Expiry on 12 March

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

United Kingdom

Arm Holdings US, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs chips used in a range of electronic products. Arm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

ARM Holdings Plc.: Will Its Agentic AI Adoption & Transition To Chiplet-Based Architectures Make It A Formidable Player In Its Domain?

Arm Holdings, a prominent player in the semiconductor industry, reported an optimistic set of results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025,...

Baptista Research

Arm: The Silicon Blueprint - [Business Breakdowns, EP.200]

ARM is a leading licensing giant in the chip design market, enabling companies to differentiate themselves by utilizing their intellectual...

Business Breakdowns