Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><p>A few quick takes before SEMICON. I'll have an ARM IPO piece coming.</p></li><li>The funniest meme on the internet is the incredulous “Nvidia is a fraud” meme. Given the recent rise in Nvidia’s stock, some brains are breaking on the internet.</li><li>The thread/train of thought seems to be spreading, and I’m here to try to stop it.</li></ul>

A few quick takes before SEMICON. I'll have an ARM IPO piece coming.The funniest meme on the internet is the incredulous “Nvidia is a fraud” meme. Given the recent rise in Nvidia’s stock, some brains are breaking on the internet.The thread/train of thought seems to be spreading, and I’m here to try to stop it.

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>SoftBank group (SBG) relies increasingly on Arm’s premium valuation for NAV growth, with SBG shares having benefited from their high correlation to those of Arm Holdings</li>
<li>JPY-USD FX strengthened recently, with the potential for BoJ monetary tightening and Fed easing set to accentuate this trend; SBG is USD asset heavy, and JPY heavy in its liabilities</li>
<li>The Vision Funds are slowly seeing IPO exits for private companies; in essence, we see that SBG shares are challenged by (geo)political, concentration, currency and market risks</li>
</ul>


SoftBank group (SBG) relies increasingly on Arm’s premium valuation for NAV growth, with SBG shares having benefited from their high correlation to those of Arm Holdings
JPY-USD FX strengthened recently, with the potential for BoJ monetary tightening and Fed easing set to accentuate this trend; SBG is USD asset heavy, and JPY heavy in its liabilities
The Vision Funds are slowly seeing IPO exits for private companies; in essence, we see that SBG shares are challenged by (geo)political, concentration, currency and market risks


SoftBank (9984 JP): Challenged by Portfolio Concentration and JPY Strength

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances


Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rumors That Mediatek's Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple's Chips Used in the iPhone 17</li>
<li>Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract</li>
<li>PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches </li>
</ul>


Rumors That Mediatek's Upcoming Chips Could Outperform Apple's Chips Used in the iPhone 17
Samsung Beats TSMC to Win Key Nintendo Switch 2 Contract
PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. unveiled its first personal computers Monday in Chengdu, with machines powered by the company’s self-developed chips and HarmonyOS operating system in a direct challenge to the long-standing dominance of Windows-Intel (Wintel) and Apple’s macOS technology.</li><li>The MateBook Fold, priced from 23,999 yuan ($3,328), features an 18-inch foldable screen and a split keyboard, while the lighter MateBook Pro, starting at 7,999 yuan, follows a more conventional laptop design with a 14.2-inch display.</li><li>Huawei did not disclose the specific chip used in either model, but industry observers believe the devices are equipped with the company’s Kirin X90 processor built on an Arm architecture.</li></ul>

Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. unveiled its first personal computers Monday in Chengdu, with machines powered by the company’s self-developed chips and HarmonyOS operating system in a direct challenge to the long-standing dominance of Windows-Intel (Wintel) and Apple’s macOS technology.The MateBook Fold, priced from 23,999 yuan ($3,328), features an 18-inch foldable screen and a split keyboard, while the lighter MateBook Pro, starting at 7,999 yuan, follows a more conventional laptop design with a 14.2-inch display.Huawei did not disclose the specific chip used in either model, but industry observers believe the devices are equipped with the company’s Kirin X90 processor built on an Arm architecture.

Huawei Unveils HarmonyOS PCs in Challenge to Windows–MacOS Duopoly 

United Kingdom

Arm Holdings US, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs chips used in a range of electronic products. Arm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut vitae lectus quis felis volutpat volutpat Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur...

Fabricated Knowledge

SoftBank (9984 JP): Challenged by Portfolio Concentration and JPY Strength

SBG's reliance on Arm's valuation for NAV growth is challenged by geopolitical, concentration, currency, and market risks. We see that the NAV...

Victor Galliano

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

Mediatek rumored to outperform Apple's chips, Samsung wins Nintendo Switch 2 contract, commercial PC demand resilient with AI momentum.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Huawei Unveils HarmonyOS PCs in Challenge to Windows–MacOS Duopoly

Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. unveiled its first personal computers Monday in Chengdu, with machines powered by the company’s self-developed chips...

Caixin Global

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut vitae lectus quis felis volutpat volutpat Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur...

Fabricated Knowledge

SoftBank (9984 JP): Challenged by Portfolio Concentration and JPY Strength

​SBG's reliance on Arm's valuation for NAV growth is challenged by geopolitical, concentration, currency, and market risks. We see that the NAV...

Victor Galliano

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek's New Chip Could Outperform Apple's; Samsung Beats TSMC, Wins Nintendo

​Mediatek rumored to outperform Apple's chips, Samsung wins Nintendo Switch 2 contract, commercial PC demand resilient with AI momentum.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Huawei Unveils HarmonyOS PCs in Challenge to Windows–MacOS Duopoly

Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd. unveiled its first personal computers Monday in Chengdu, with machines powered by the company’s self-developed chips...

Caixin Global

SBG's reliance on Arm's valuation for NAV growth is challenged by geopolitical, concentration, currency, and market risks. We see that the NAV...

Mediatek rumored to outperform Apple's chips, Samsung wins Nintendo Switch 2 contract, commercial PC demand resilient with AI momentum.