Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.</li>
<li>At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1890/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> will be valued at JPY 435bn (US$2.94bn).</li>
<li>The stock should be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TPX INDEX</a> at the close on 29 November where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 25 October.
At the reported indicative IPO price of JPY 1890/share, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) will be valued at JPY 435bn (US$2.94bn).
The stock should be added to the TPX INDEX at the close on 29 November where trackers will need to buy over 14% of the stock issued in the IPO.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value</li>
<li>We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2</li>
<li>We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation</li>
</ul>


There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value
We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2
We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation


SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li><p>A few quick takes before SEMICON. I'll have an ARM IPO piece coming.</p></li><li>The funniest meme on the internet is the incredulous “Nvidia is a fraud” meme. Given the recent rise in Nvidia’s stock, some brains are breaking on the internet.</li><li>The thread/train of thought seems to be spreading, and I’m here to try to stop it.</li></ul>

A few quick takes before SEMICON. I'll have an ARM IPO piece coming.The funniest meme on the internet is the incredulous “Nvidia is a fraud” meme. Given the recent rise in Nvidia’s stock, some brains are breaking on the internet.The thread/train of thought seems to be spreading, and I’m here to try to stop it.

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's Most Advanced Node -- 5x Growth to 200K Wafers a Month? Upcoming 2nm Node Capacity Ramp Could Be Much Bigger Than Many Think</li>
<li>OpenAI's Sam Altman 'Jokes' About Owning US$3 Trillion Worth of GPUs One Day...</li>
<li>AI PC Delay -- Nvidia-MediaTek Push AI PC Chip Launch to 2026</li>
</ul>


TSMC's Most Advanced Node -- 5x Growth to 200K Wafers a Month? Upcoming 2nm Node Capacity Ramp Could Be Much Bigger Than Many Think
OpenAI's Sam Altman 'Jokes' About Owning US$3 Trillion Worth of GPUs One Day...
AI PC Delay -- Nvidia-MediaTek Push AI PC Chip Launch to 2026


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ambiq Micro is offering 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00 equating to a market cap of $375m-$426m and is scheduled to debut on July 30th.</li>
<li>The company is currently undergoing a "shift" from a customer base that relies heavily on mainland China to other parts of the world.</li>
<li>The updated prospectus further outlines the ownership percentages and lists Kleiner Perkins and EDB Investments Ptd Ltd as owners of 14.8% and 6.0% prior to this offering.</li>
</ul>


Ambiq Micro is offering 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00 equating to a market cap of $375m-$426m and is scheduled to debut on July 30th.
The company is currently undergoing a "shift" from a customer base that relies heavily on mainland China to other parts of the world.
The updated prospectus further outlines the ownership percentages and lists Kleiner Perkins and EDB Investments Ptd Ltd as owners of 14.8% and 6.0% prior to this offering.


Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semiconductor Solutions Company Sets Terms for IPO

United Kingdom

Arm Holdings US, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs chips used in a range of electronic products. Arm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

Kokusai Electric starts trading today. Initial passive demand will come from TOPIX trackers next month. Flow from global passive trackers will come...

Brian Freitas

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...

Victor Galliano

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut vitae lectus quis felis volutpat volutpat Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

TSMC's upcoming 2nm node could see a significant increase in wafer capacity, OpenAI's Sam Altman jokes about owning trillions worth of GPUs, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semiconductor Solutions Company Sets Terms for IPO

Ambiq Micro updated its prospectus and set terms for its IPO that is scheduled to debut on July 30th with 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00.

IPO Boutique

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Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) IPO: Listing in October, TPX Inclusion in November, Global Indices Later

Kokusai Electric starts trading today. Initial passive demand will come from TOPIX trackers next month. Flow from global passive trackers will come...

Brian Freitas

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

​SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...

Victor Galliano

Taiwan AI Conference Slides, Nvidia Fraud Hoax, Huawei, ARM IPO, and Intel

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut vitae lectus quis felis volutpat volutpat Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur...

Fabricated Knowledge

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

​TSMC's upcoming 2nm node could see a significant increase in wafer capacity, OpenAI's Sam Altman jokes about owning trillions worth of GPUs, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semiconductor Solutions Company Sets Terms for IPO

​Ambiq Micro updated its prospectus and set terms for its IPO that is scheduled to debut on July 30th with 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00.

IPO Boutique

SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...

TSMC's upcoming 2nm node could see a significant increase in wafer capacity, OpenAI's Sam Altman jokes about owning trillions worth of GPUs, and...

Ambiq Micro updated its prospectus and set terms for its IPO that is scheduled to debut on July 30th with 3.4mm shares at $22.00-$25.00.