Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Discussion of infrastructure capex as a percentage of US GDP by era, highlighting the current rate of 1.2%</li><li>Comparison of current bubble dynamics to past bubbles, noting that the current bubble is not as excessive as previous ones</li><li>Debate over whether the current investment cycle is a bubble or a strong investment cycle, with concerns about speculative investments and emotional factors leading to potential overvaluation in the future</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Discussion of infrastructure capex as a percentage of US GDP by era, highlighting the current rate of 1.2%Comparison of current bubble dynamics to past bubbles, noting that the current bubble is not as excessive as previous onesDebate over whether the current investment cycle is a bubble or a strong investment cycle, with concerns about speculative investments and emotional factors leading to potential overvaluation in the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 129: Capex to the Moon 2.0! Bubble Debate, and QCOM and Arm Earnings

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Hyundai chief partners with Samsung and Hanwha in US tariff push, showing collaboration between major companies to address trade issues.</li><li>Arm CEO considers in-house chip production, signaling a strategic shift for the company towards more control over its manufacturing process.</li><li>BOE secures half of Apple's MacBook screen orders, displacing LG Display, showcasing the competitiveness in the display market.</li></ul>

Hyundai chief partners with Samsung and Hanwha in US tariff push, showing collaboration between major companies to address trade issues.Arm CEO considers in-house chip production, signaling a strategic shift for the company towards more control over its manufacturing process.BOE secures half of Apple's MacBook screen orders, displacing LG Display, showcasing the competitiveness in the display market.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2025): Hyundai chief joins Samsung, Hanwha in US tariff blitz.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27253:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986 CH)</a> (GD), an IC design house, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>GD is a leading specialty memory chip and MCU company in mainland China.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986 CH) (GD), an IC design house, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
GD is a leading specialty memory chip and MCU company in mainland China.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


GigaDevice A/H Listing -Strong Long Term Record but Exposed to the Memory Cycle

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

<ul>
<li>The company is forecasting a slow-down in growth based on moving a large portion of its business away from mainland China. </li>
<li>While order flow has come in steady for this IPO, some of our sources are taking a 'wait-and-see' approach. </li>
<li>The valuation is not aggressive, the smaller cash raise is manageable but there are still many questions about this company as they enter the public markets.</li>
</ul>


The company is forecasting a slow-down in growth based on moving a large portion of its business away from mainland China. 
While order flow has come in steady for this IPO, some of our sources are taking a 'wait-and-see' approach. 
The valuation is not aggressive, the smaller cash raise is manageable but there are still many questions about this company as they enter the public markets.


Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): IPO Facing Challenges, Revenue Growth Stagnant Amidst Changes to Business

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC's Most Advanced Node -- 5x Growth to 200K Wafers a Month? Upcoming 2nm Node Capacity Ramp Could Be Much Bigger Than Many Think</li>
<li>OpenAI's Sam Altman 'Jokes' About Owning US$3 Trillion Worth of GPUs One Day...</li>
<li>AI PC Delay -- Nvidia-MediaTek Push AI PC Chip Launch to 2026</li>
</ul>


TSMC's Most Advanced Node -- 5x Growth to 200K Wafers a Month? Upcoming 2nm Node Capacity Ramp Could Be Much Bigger Than Many Think
OpenAI's Sam Altman 'Jokes' About Owning US$3 Trillion Worth of GPUs One Day...
AI PC Delay -- Nvidia-MediaTek Push AI PC Chip Launch to 2026


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

United Kingdom

Arm Holdings US, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs chips used in a range of electronic products. Arm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

EP 129: Capex to the Moon 2.0! Bubble Debate, and QCOM and Arm Earnings

The current tech bubble in the US has some similarities to past bubbles but also unique characteristics, with infrastructure investment playing a...

The Circuit

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2025): Hyundai chief joins Samsung, Hanwha in US tariff blitz.

Hyundai, Samsung, and Hanwha team up on US tariffs. Arm CEO looks at making own chips. BOE wins Apple MacBook screen orders. MediaTek surpasses Q2...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

GigaDevice A/H Listing -Strong Long Term Record but Exposed to the Memory Cycle

GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986 CH) (GD), an IC design house, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): IPO Facing Challenges, Revenue Growth Stagnant Amidst Changes to Business

Company forecasts growth slow-down after moving business from China, IPO order flow steady but sources cautious, manageable cash raise but...

IPO Boutique

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

TSMC's upcoming 2nm node could see a significant increase in wafer capacity, OpenAI's Sam Altman jokes about owning trillions worth of GPUs, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EP 129: Capex to the Moon 2.0! Bubble Debate, and QCOM and Arm Earnings

The current tech bubble in the US has some similarities to past bubbles but also unique characteristics, with infrastructure investment playing a...

The Circuit

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (01-Aug-2025): Hyundai chief joins Samsung, Hanwha in US tariff blitz.

Hyundai, Samsung, and Hanwha team up on US tariffs. Arm CEO looks at making own chips. BOE wins Apple MacBook screen orders. MediaTek surpasses Q2...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

GigaDevice A/H Listing -Strong Long Term Record but Exposed to the Memory Cycle

GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986 CH) (GD), an IC design house, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): IPO Facing Challenges, Revenue Growth Stagnant Amidst Changes to Business

​Company forecasts growth slow-down after moving business from China, IPO order flow steady but sources cautious, manageable cash raise but...

IPO Boutique

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

​TSMC's upcoming 2nm node could see a significant increase in wafer capacity, OpenAI's Sam Altman jokes about owning trillions worth of GPUs, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Company forecasts growth slow-down after moving business from China, IPO order flow steady but sources cautious, manageable cash raise but...

TSMC's upcoming 2nm node could see a significant increase in wafer capacity, OpenAI's Sam Altman jokes about owning trillions worth of GPUs, and...