Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite regional lockdowns caused by COVID-19 during most part of FY21, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arrail-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33794:1" rel="noopener">Arrail Group (6639 HK)</a> posted 7% y/y growth in revenue, driven by 14% y/y growth in total patient visits.   </li>
<li>China dental services market is growing at an average 20% per annum. Arrail’s low debt and strong cash position should support its business expansion plans to grab the market opportunity.</li>
<li>Despite competition, the company is expected to report accelerated double-digit revenue growth in next three years, by leveraging on its market leadership positioning and favorable macro tailwind.</li>
</ul>


Despite regional lockdowns caused by COVID-19 during most part of FY21, Arrail Group (6639 HK) posted 7% y/y growth in revenue, driven by 14% y/y growth in total patient visits.   
China dental services market is growing at an average 20% per annum. Arrail’s low debt and strong cash position should support its business expansion plans to grab the market opportunity.
Despite competition, the company is expected to report accelerated double-digit revenue growth in next three years, by leveraging on its market leadership positioning and favorable macro tailwind.


Arrail Group (6639 HK): Full-Year FY22 Results Indicate Demand Is Recovering

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Arrial's positioning at high-end private dental chain indicates limited growth space. The large investment in dental professionals drags down overall margins but fails to generate good word-of-mouth and expected returns.</li>
<li>Public hospitals with NRDL reimbursement and private dental chains with high cost performance would put more pressure on Arrail. Increasing marketing/promotion expenses cannot turn things around but further reduce margins.</li>
<li>Overall, the high-end strategy cannot bring high-end returns. We are not optimistic about Arrail's prospects and profitability. The Company may even keep losing money and hard to turn profitable.</li>
</ul>


Arrial's positioning at high-end private dental chain indicates limited growth space. The large investment in dental professionals drags down overall margins but fails to generate good word-of-mouth and expected returns.
Public hospitals with NRDL reimbursement and private dental chains with high cost performance would put more pressure on Arrail. Increasing marketing/promotion expenses cannot turn things around but further reduce margins.
Overall, the high-end strategy cannot bring high-end returns. We are not optimistic about Arrail's prospects and profitability. The Company may even keep losing money and hard to turn profitable.


Arrail Group (6639.HK) - The Development Strategy Cannot Generate High Returns

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.</li>
<li>There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.</li>
<li>Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.</li>
</ul>


We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.
There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list.
Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the 'sell-only' Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

China CITIC Financial Asset Management / Index Rebalance

China CITIC Financial Asset Management (2799 HK)

<ul>
<li>We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.
We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.
Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/v3-brands-asia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35797:1" rel="noopener">V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It was previously listed on the SGX between 2000-2016.</li>
<li>V3 Brands Asia is a lifestyle and wellness firm, it is most known for its flagship massage chairs which are sold under the OSIM brand.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It was previously listed on the SGX between 2000-2016.
V3 Brands Asia is a lifestyle and wellness firm, it is most known for its flagship massage chairs which are sold under the OSIM brand.
In this note, we'll talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO - The Negatives - While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder

China

Arrail Group is a leading dental services provider in China, operating a network of dental hospitals and clinics under its premium 'Arrail Dental' and mid-range 'Rytime Dental' brands. The company offers a comprehensive range of dental services, including general dentistry, orthodontics, and implantology. It is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 1999.

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Arrail (6639 HK)

Arrail Group (6639 HK): Full-Year FY22 Results Indicate Demand Is Recovering

Despite COVID-19, Arrail’s revenue grew 7% in FY21 as patient visits increased steadily at its existing and newly opened clinics and hospitals....

Tina Banerjee

Arrail Group (6639.HK) - The Development Strategy Cannot Generate High Returns

Arrail's development strategy cannot generate high returns, with limited growth space.High labor cost and marketing/promotion expense drag down...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

We see 28 potential adds and 9 close adds for the HSCI in September. There are 22 potential deletes on market cap, liquidity and prolonged...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

We forecast 7 adds to the HSCI in June. For the September rebalance, we forecast 19 adds & 19 deletes (7 on mkt cap, 4 on liquidity, 8 on long...

Brian Freitas

V3 Brands Asia Pre-IPO - The Negatives - While Margins Have Grown, so Have Payouts to Founder

V3 Brands Asia (V3 HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we'll talk about the not so positive aspects...

Clarence Chu

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