Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market. In this report we recap important technical levels for the major indexes and highlight actionable set-ups within the utilities, travel and leisure and consumer staples industries.

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Cross Asset Strategy

TW3 NORTH ASIA 22-27 JUNESmartkarma's North Asian Insight providers produced 28 new Insights this week, mostly focused on a deluge of 'events' and the start of the, mostly first quarter, earnings announcements. The tone was overwhelmingly 'bullish' with only six 'bearish' notes, despite the weaker trends in earnings and the simmering trade and reparation disputes between the two nations.EVENT - DRIVEN

Sanghyun Park provides summaries of the rumour mills surrounding Naver Corp (035420 KS), the Naver Financial offering, Jieum and the possible diminution of LINE (3938 JP)'s role in the evolution of the group as well as the potential for  SK Telecom (017670 KS) to acquire the Asiana group companies and the resulting conversion of SKT into a holding company.

Travis Lundy and LightStream Research noted the 'short squeeze' taking place following Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)'s removal from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) - the shares rose by 8.7% over the week.
Travis also covered three highly-unusual contested and hostile 'J-on-J" corporate actions currently unfolding. One 'white knight' has already emerged, while another two could be appearing over the horizon - a busy time for Japan's IBs:- 

Askul/Yahoo Japan -  Askul has accused YJ of lying as to its intentions surrounding the future of their JV company LOHACO and their move to have Askul's CEO dismissed - Askul has requested a dissolution of their tie-up and could be seeking a white knight

UNIZO/HIS - UNIZO has, so far, been unable to respond in writing to HIS's Tender Offer of 11th July and requires 'more information' from the Offeror. UNIZO in buying some more time is likely to be preparing a revised RNAV and probably also seeking a white knight given HIS's lack of real estate chops.

Star Asia/Sakura Sogo REIT/Mirai - This J-REIT 'event' is already a 'threesome' however the lack of any merger terms, the nonsense of the potential for abuse in the 'Deemed Approval' of non-voting shareholders and the blatant self-interest of the Sakura Soo sponsors are further glaring lacunae in Japanese corporate governance (sic)


The Asahi Group (2502 JP) acquisition of ABInBev's Australian operation CUB was deemed positive and value accretive by LightStream Research but Arun George points out that the price already factors in ambitious targets for further share gains.
Lastly, Travis Lundy recommends buying the Sanyo Chemical (4471 JP)  / Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP) 'ratio' with upsides ranging from 7% to 34%, while LightStream Research continue to applaud Denso Corp (6902 JP) further moves into autonomous driving after establishing a chip JV with Toyota Motor (7203 JP).
EQUITY BOTTOM-UP    

Douglas Kim explores the three catalysts driving Hite Jinro (000080 KS) at present - a beneficiary of the South Korean boycott of all things Japanese and then correlates Samsung Electronics (SMSD LI) with trends in US bond markets and reaches a bearish conclusion

LightStream Research thinks Money Forward (3994 JP)'s new pricing plan will result in 45% three-year annual compound revenue growth which would take the company to breakeven but would wait before investing.

Kirk Boodry looks at Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Vision Fund II, while Michael Causton surveys the task ahead for Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s new and first female CEO and new stores opening in Shibuya and Shinsaibashi for J Front Retailing (3086 JP)

 Lastly, J. Brian Waterhouse looks at the beleaguered Fukushima Bank (8562 JP) whose largest shareholder is another listed company - Prospect Co Ltd (3528 JP) - although they are classified as a 'foreign' shareholder as the shares were originally held in the Prospect Japan Fund which has now been acquired by Prospect
 RESULTS COMMENTARY

LightStream Research maintains their bullish recommendations on both Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) and Nidec (6594 JP), despite the latter's 'underwhelming' results, while also 'staying loyal to Nissan Motor (7201 JP) as they steer well clear of a Renault SA (RNO FP)-led future. They consider Toyota Motor (7203 JP) as they clear leader in the global auto industry.

Douglas Kim updated us on Naver Corp (035420 KS)'s second quarter and reviewed the Naver Financial spin-off and concludes that 'things are looking up' for the company and the CEO, Han Seong-Sook.
Bearish notes appeared from Kirk Boodry on NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) (although he views Docomo's woes as good news for rivals KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and Softbank Group (9984 JP), while Scott Foster highlights the potential 20% downside risk in Keyence (6861 JP) whose first-quarter results sale the first downturn in sales and profits since 2010.
THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGYA somewhat prolific week for Douglas Kim saw him round off with two strategy notes, the first a bullish Insight on Korean telecom companies in light of the rollout of 5G and a reminder that the likely date for the announcement of Sout Korea's exclusion from Japan's 'whitelist' of preferred trading counterparties will be between August 2nd and August 9th. He remains pessimistic on the outlook for the Korean market.      EVENT DRIVEN: BULLISHSanyo Chem - Nippon Shokubai Merger Ratio Is a BUY ASKUL vs Yahoo Japan - Receipts Provided LINE, Naver &amp; LHJ's Jieum: Local Speculations SKT's Asiana Takeover &amp; Intermediate Holdco Conversion Timeframe Chiyoda: Squeeze Coming Through Chiyoda in Full Squeeze - For Now Another Move by Denso to Accelerate Its ADAS Game Asahi to Acquire Carlton &amp; United Breweries: Positive for Asahi Not so for AB InBev UNIZO Board Statement on HIS Tender - No Opinion Yet Naver Financial ECO: Meaning for LINE EVENT DRIVEN: BEARISHAsahi Group: The Acquisition and the Hangover Sakura Sogo/Mirai: White Knight Guess The Ratio Isn't Easy PickingsEQUITY BOTTOM-UP: BULLISHHiteJinro: 3 Catalysts - Japanese Beer Boycott, Soju Price Increase, &amp; "Tesla" The Drink Money Forward’s New Pricing Plan Could Be Its First Step in the Path to Profitability Softbank Group: Another Step Closer to Vision Fund 2 Uniqlo’s First Female CEO Gets the Job of Managing the Cull of Stores at Home J Front Retailing Aims High with New Builds in Shibuya and Shinsaibashi EQUITY BOTTOM-UP: BEARISHKOSPI Vs. Samsung Electronics at Different Stages of the Bond Yield Differentials Fukushima Bank (8562 JP) - Living on the EdgeRESULTS COMMENTARY:  BULLISHNidec: Underwhelming 1Q But OP Recovery in PlaceNaver - The Spin-Off of Naver Financial Business &amp; Major Highlights of 2Q19 Results Shin-Etsu: Solid Growth in Semiconductor Silicon Despite Declining Memory Market Nissan: Nissan Taking Its Medicine Is Making Toyota Healthier MonotaRO (3064 JP): 1H Results on Track, but Margins Declining RESULTS COMMENTARY:  BEARISHDoCoMo Q1 19 - New Tariffs Impact Profit/User Interest Low/Good for KDDI &amp; Softbank Keyence (6861 JP): Downturn Confirmed THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGY: BULLISHThe 5G Service Rollout Update &amp; Earnings Preview of Korean Telcos in 2Q19 THEMATIC &amp; STRATEGY: BEARISHExclusion of South Korea from Japan's "Whitelist" Of Countries: D-Day - August 2nd? 

🇰🇷🇯🇵 That Was The Week That Was • North Asia 22nd-27th July 2019 @Smartkarma

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh straight quarter of improved earnings results with a ‘raspberry’. Almost all of the previous two week's gains have been unwound; the 50-day moving average has been breached on the downside and volumes have continued to grind lower. The Market Composite trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE is now just 14.2x and the lowest level of the soon-to-be-extended ‘era’ of…

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh straight quarter of improved earnings results with a ‘raspberry’. Almost all of the previous two week's gains have been unwound; the 50-day moving average has been breached on the downside and volumes have continued to grind lower. The Market Composite trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PE is now just 14.2x and the lowest level of the soon-to-be-extended ‘era’ of…

Japan Fortnightly Update: Market PE at ‘Abe-Era’ Low

Japan

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. produces beer and other beverages including non-alcoholic drinks. The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

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Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Squarely in the Neutral Camp

At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels,...

Vermilion Research

🇰🇷🇯🇵 That Was The Week That Was • North Asia 22nd-27th July 2019 @Smartkarma

TW3 NORTH ASIA 22-27 JUNESmartkarma's North Asian Insight providers produced 28 new Insights this week, mostly focused on a deluge of 'events' and...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fortnightly Update: Market PE at ‘Abe-Era’ Low

GOOD RESULTS/WEAK MARKET - It may just be because the ‘Obon’ holidays start next week, but the Japanese equity market has greeted the seventh...

Campbell Gunn

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