Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>On December 12, 2025, shares of Ascendis Pharma A/S spiked 8% in intraday trading, fueled by sudden market chatter suggesting the Danish rare disease biotech may be in the crosshairs of a potential acquirer.</li><li>With no confirmed bidder or public announcement to validate the speculation, investors and analysts were left parsing through the noise, weighing the potential strategic rationale for a deal.</li><li>At a market capitalization of $11.8 billion, Ascendis stands out with a growing commercial footprint anchored by its approved products SKYTROFA and YORVIPATH, a robust pipeline including TransCon CNP, and a long-term vision aimed at €5 billion in annual revenue by 2030.</li></ul>

On December 12, 2025, shares of Ascendis Pharma A/S spiked 8% in intraday trading, fueled by sudden market chatter suggesting the Danish rare disease biotech may be in the crosshairs of a potential acquirer.With no confirmed bidder or public announcement to validate the speculation, investors and analysts were left parsing through the noise, weighing the potential strategic rationale for a deal.At a market capitalization of $11.8 billion, Ascendis stands out with a growing commercial footprint anchored by its approved products SKYTROFA and YORVIPATH, a robust pipeline including TransCon CNP, and a long-term vision aimed at €5 billion in annual revenue by 2030.

Ascendis Pharma Just Popped 8%—Is a Multi-Billion-Dollar Acquisition Brewing?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

<ul>
<li>A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $<span style="color: #24a9a7;">ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136</span>
</li>
<li>We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.</li>
</ul>


A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136

We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.


Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Circle Internet Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.</li>
<li>Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.
Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.


Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Denmark

Ascendis Pharma A/S manufactures pharmaceutical products. The Company produces products for the treatments of growth hormone deficiency, endocrinology, central nervous system disorders, infectious diseases, and diabetes.

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Ascendis Pharma (ASND US)

Ascendis Pharma Just Popped 8%—Is a Multi-Billion-Dollar Acquisition Brewing?

On December 12, 2025, shares of Ascendis Pharma A/S spiked 8% in intraday trading, fueled by sudden market chatter suggesting the Danish rare...

Baptista Research

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI $SPX Likely in 3%-7% Range; Supports to watch on $ACWI include $136, $134...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Downgrading Financials $XLF to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore: quantum, nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar,...

Vermilion Research

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

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