Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Circle Internet Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.</li>
<li>Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
For now, we continue to expect support to show up at the 4-month uptrend, which generally coincides with the 20-day MA.
Speculative growth themes (quantum,nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar, biotech, WGMI,ARKK,ARKQ,ARKX,ARKW,ARKG, etc.) have been rolling, and we've been recommending them in this section every week for 1+ months.


Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/circle-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45034:1" rel="noopener">Circle Internet Group (CRCL US)</a> is forecasted to be added to both US TMI and R1000 at the September 2025 review. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/circle-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45034:1" rel="noopener">Circle Internet Group (CRCL US)</a> is forecasted to be added to Global Standard at the November 2025 review and to Global All-World at the December 2025 review.</li>
<li>A significant upweight is anticipated at the March 2026 review in R1000 and Global All-World following the lock-up expiry.</li>
</ul>



Circle Internet Group (CRCL US) is forecasted to be added to both US TMI and R1000 at the September 2025 review. 

Circle Internet Group (CRCL US) is forecasted to be added to Global Standard at the November 2025 review and to Global All-World at the December 2025 review.
A significant upweight is anticipated at the March 2026 review in R1000 and Global All-World following the lock-up expiry.


Circle Internet Group (CRCL US): Rounded US & Global Index Inclusion & Upweight

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Circle Internet Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Circle Internet Group, Inc.  priced 34.0mm shares at $31.00 ($3 Above the Upwardly-Revised $27-$28 range) and opened at $69.00 for a gain of 123% at first trade. </li>
<li>The IPO traded violently higher with a top-tick of $103.75 for a gain of 235%. The stock closed at $83.23 or 168.5% above issue on day one. </li>
<li>Circle is a "one-of-a-kind" industry and one that does not have other public companies to compare to. This could mean that more "fireworks" are in store for the short term.   </li>
</ul>


Circle Internet Group, Inc.  priced 34.0mm shares at $31.00 ($3 Above the Upwardly-Revised $27-$28 range) and opened at $69.00 for a gain of 123% at first trade. 
The IPO traded violently higher with a top-tick of $103.75 for a gain of 235%. The stock closed at $83.23 or 168.5% above issue on day one. 
Circle is a "one-of-a-kind" industry and one that does not have other public companies to compare to. This could mean that more "fireworks" are in store for the short term.   


Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Wall Street Pounces on Stable Coin Powerhouse, IPO Pops 235%

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Circle raised both the IPO shares to be issued and IPO price range. New IPO price range is $27 to $28 per share (from $24 to $26 per share previously).</li>
<li>We have a Positive View of the Circle due to its status as the second largest issuer of stablecoins globally, rapidly increasing user base and sales, and improving profit margins. </li>
<li>Major risk factors of this IPO include CBDCs, centralization, cyberattacks, and potential government crackdown. </li>
</ul>


Circle raised both the IPO shares to be issued and IPO price range. New IPO price range is $27 to $28 per share (from $24 to $26 per share previously).
We have a Positive View of the Circle due to its status as the second largest issuer of stablecoins globally, rapidly increasing user base and sales, and improving profit margins. 
Major risk factors of this IPO include CBDCs, centralization, cyberattacks, and potential government crackdown. 


Circle IPO Analysis (Second Largest Issuer of Stablecoins Globally)

<ul>
<li>Circle Internet locked down a pair of anchor orders ahead of next week's IPO which is already oversubscribed.</li>
<li>Circle posted $122m of adjusted Ebitda in Q12025 while growing revenue by 58% to $579m. </li>
<li>The combination of anchor orders, an attractive valuation, growing metrics and a tailwind from the Trump administration all tilt the risk-reward profile in a positive direction.</li>
</ul>


Circle Internet locked down a pair of anchor orders ahead of next week's IPO which is already oversubscribed.
Circle posted $122m of adjusted Ebitda in Q12025 while growing revenue by 58% to $579m. 
The combination of anchor orders, an attractive valuation, growing metrics and a tailwind from the Trump administration all tilt the risk-reward profile in a positive direction.


Circle Internet Group (CRCL): Ark, BlackRock to Anchor Oversubscribed Stablecoin IPO

United States

Circle Internet Group, Inc. provides financial technology solutions. The Company provides a digital asset platform and network utility systems that enables businesses of all sizes to harness the power of digital currencies and public blockchains for payments, commerce, and financial applications. Circle Internet Group serves customers worldwide.

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Circle Internet Group (CRCL US)

Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore; Health Care Breaking Out

Downgrading Financials $XLF to Underweight; Growth Themes Galore: quantum, nuclear, hydrogen, space, robotics, drones, data centers, solar,...

Vermilion Research