Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Jun’25 Wholesale Volumes: The overall domestic 2W industry witnessed 2% marginal uptick (and 10% YoY without HMSI) in volumes, led by outperformance in exports (up 35% YoY) while the domestic industry witnessed 3% YoY decline.</li><li>Domestic PV industry sales volume was down 7-8% YoY, due to declines in Hyundai /TaMo /Maruti being partly offset by strong volumes by M&amp;M and JSW MG, followed by Toyota.</li><li>The domestic CV industry (proxy) saw a degrowth of 4% YoY, while the domestic tractor industry (proxy) registered 15% YoY volume growth in Jun’25.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jun’25 Wholesale Volumes: The overall domestic 2W industry witnessed 2% marginal uptick (and 10% YoY without HMSI) in volumes, led by outperformance in exports (up 35% YoY) while the domestic industry witnessed 3% YoY decline.Domestic PV industry sales volume was down 7-8% YoY, due to declines in Hyundai /TaMo /Maruti being partly offset by strong volumes by M&amp;M and JSW MG, followed by Toyota.The domestic CV industry (proxy) saw a degrowth of 4% YoY, while the domestic tractor industry (proxy) registered 15% YoY volume growth in Jun’25.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>In the past few quarters, rural India has been shouldering the responsibility of consumption growth in the country while urban mass consumption remained soft, impacted adversely by persistent inflation</li><li>Against this backdrop, our report is a bottom-up analysis of ~250 rural districts across eight key Indian states, representing ~72% of rural India GDP</li><li>It demonstrates the strength of rural growth with following inferences, reinforcing the thesis presented in our previous Rural India report Rural India is transitioning swiftly from an agri-centric economy to a services-led economy 112 rural districts representing a population of 291mn have already crossed the threshold of per capita income of USD2,000</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In the past few quarters, rural India has been shouldering the responsibility of consumption growth in the country while urban mass consumption remained soft, impacted adversely by persistent inflationAgainst this backdrop, our report is a bottom-up analysis of ~250 rural districts across eight key Indian states, representing ~72% of rural India GDPIt demonstrates the strength of rural growth with following inferences, reinforcing the thesis presented in our previous Rural India report Rural India is transitioning swiftly from an agri-centric economy to a services-led economy 112 rural districts representing a population of 291mn have already crossed the threshold of per capita income of USD2,000Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Rural India: Shifting economic foundations

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.</li>
<li>Our top in China are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)  </a>
</li>
<li>Our top picks in Japan are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> and in India Auto it is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) &amp; </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener"> </a>
</li>
</ul>


We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.
Our top in China are Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) , Midea Group (300 HK) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)  

Our top picks in Japan are Denso Corp (6902 JP),ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) and in India Auto it is Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) &amp; Ashok Leyland (AL IN) 



Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - June 2025

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We continue to reiterate our short call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> based on near term challenges.</li>
<li>May sales volume is weak versus peers in industry. This weak performance is seen across segments - India passenger cars, commercial vehicles and UK Retail sales</li>
<li>This insight discusses the whole sale volume in the month of May and compares it with its nearest competitors.</li>
</ul>


We continue to reiterate our short call on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) based on near term challenges.
May sales volume is weak versus peers in industry. This weak performance is seen across segments - India passenger cars, commercial vehicles and UK Retail sales
This insight discusses the whole sale volume in the month of May and compares it with its nearest competitors.


Reiterate Short Tata Motors - Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak

India

Ashok Leyland Limited manufactures medium and heavy duty commercial vehicles, including buses, tractors, dumpsters, haulage trucks, fire engines, and defense sector vehicles. The Company also manufactures industrial & marine engines, ferrous castings and spare parts for automobiles. Ashok Leyland sells its products in India and abroad.

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Ashok Leyland (AL IN)

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - June 2025

Domestic PV industry sales volume was down 7-8% YoY, due to declines in Hyundai /TaMo /Maruti being partly offset by strong volumes by M&M and JSW...

Axis Direct

Rural India: Shifting economic foundations

Against this backdrop, our report is a bottom-up analysis of ~250 rural districts across eight key Indian states, representing ~72% of rural India GDP

HDFC Securities

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - June 2025

Our selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India is based on bottom-up triggers in each company, with picks including Chow Tai Fook,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Reiterate Short Tata Motors - Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak

Short call reiterated on Tata Motors Ltd due to weak May sales volume across segments in India and UK, lagging behind industry peers.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - June 2025

Domestic PV industry sales volume was down 7-8% YoY, due to declines in Hyundai /TaMo /Maruti being partly offset by strong volumes by M&M and JSW...

Axis Direct

Rural India: Shifting economic foundations

Against this backdrop, our report is a bottom-up analysis of ~250 rural districts across eight key Indian states, representing ~72% of rural India GDP

HDFC Securities

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - June 2025

​Our selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India is based on bottom-up triggers in each company, with picks including Chow Tai Fook,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Reiterate Short Tata Motors - Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak

​Short call reiterated on Tata Motors Ltd due to weak May sales volume across segments in India and UK, lagging behind industry peers.

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Our selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India is based on bottom-up triggers in each company, with picks including Chow Tai Fook,...

Short call reiterated on Tata Motors Ltd due to weak May sales volume across segments in India and UK, lagging behind industry peers.