Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The combined 4Q24 earnings of 597 stocks in the SET Index (accounting for 98% of total market capitalization) amounted to Bt190,163mn, up 12% YoY but down 5% QoQ.</li><li>Excluding the energy, petrochemical, and banking sectors, earnings for the remaining stocks grew 23% YoY but declined 12% QoQ.</li><li>Among the 185 stocks with Bloomberg consensus estimates, earnings came in at Bt179,438mn, rising 24% YoY and 3% QoQ, but falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimates by approximately 8%. </li></ul>

The combined 4Q24 earnings of 597 stocks in the SET Index (accounting for 98% of total market capitalization) amounted to Bt190,163mn, up 12% YoY but down 5% QoQ.Excluding the energy, petrochemical, and banking sectors, earnings for the remaining stocks grew 23% YoY but declined 12% QoQ.Among the 185 stocks with Bloomberg consensus estimates, earnings came in at Bt179,438mn, rising 24% YoY and 3% QoQ, but falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimates by approximately 8%. 

Special Report: 4Q24 Consensus Earnings Summary - March 4, 2025

<ul><li>The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.</li><li>ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.</li><li>iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. </li></ul>

The impact of concerns over the tourism situation, which may escalate following the repatriation of Uyghurs to China in late February, is expected to be limited owing to the following factors: i) The proportion of tourists from the US and Japan, which have issued travel advisories for Thailand, is low at only 6% of total tourists.ii) The government plans to revive the "We Travel Together" scheme during the low season (May-September), helping to mitigate the potential impact of the Uyghur issue, which is expected to affect the same period; historically, tourism conditions tend to normalize within 3-4 months after any unrest or unusual incidents.iii) Stock prices typically decline and underperform the SET slightly at -2% to -3% in the one-week to two-month period following such events. 

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

<ul><li>The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.</li><li>The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.</li><li>The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. </li></ul>

The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. 

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We expect economic growth in 2H24E to accelerate beyond the 1.9% YoY expansion seen in 1H24E, serving as a key driver in achieving the revised 2024E GDP growth forecast of 2.55% YoY (up from 2.5% previously).</li><li>This acceleration will also create positive sentiment for stocks benefiting from a top-down approach, particularly those related to government spending, tourism, and the banking sector.</li><li>Government spending is expected to rise thanks to accelerated budget disbursements, while the tourism sector should see strong gains, with tourist arrivals projected to hit 36.5mn by yearend (compared to 20.6mn for 7M24). </li></ul>

We expect economic growth in 2H24E to accelerate beyond the 1.9% YoY expansion seen in 1H24E, serving as a key driver in achieving the revised 2024E GDP growth forecast of 2.55% YoY (up from 2.5% previously).This acceleration will also create positive sentiment for stocks benefiting from a top-down approach, particularly those related to government spending, tourism, and the banking sector.Government spending is expected to rise thanks to accelerated budget disbursements, while the tourism sector should see strong gains, with tourist arrivals projected to hit 36.5mn by yearend (compared to 20.6mn for 7M24). 

Economic Update: 2Q24 GDP Growth - August 20, 2024

<ul><li>Although many Asian bourses bounced up, the SET sank sharply amid concerns that the Fed would maintain interest rates at a high level, alongside the surge of US bond yields, the posting of XD and escalating tensions in the Middle East.</li><li>As a result, a selling force quickly targeted large cap stocks, and foreign investors kept selling heavily, causing the index to get closer to the previous low at 1,350  points.</li><li>The index reverted to its previous sideways movement, opening a gap down and forming two consecutive black candlesticks.</li></ul>

Although many Asian bourses bounced up, the SET sank sharply amid concerns that the Fed would maintain interest rates at a high level, alongside the surge of US bond yields, the posting of XD and escalating tensions in the Middle East.As a result, a selling force quickly targeted large cap stocks, and foreign investors kept selling heavily, causing the index to get closer to the previous low at 1,350  points.The index reverted to its previous sideways movement, opening a gap down and forming two consecutive black candlesticks.

Thailand

Asia Aviation Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based holding company primarily engaged in investing in low-fare airline businesses, specifically holding 100% of Thai AirAsia Company Limited. The company's operations include scheduled and chartered flight services, along with providing aviation, tourism, and hospitality training through its subsidiary, Asia Aviation Center Co., Ltd. Asia Aviation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Asia Aviation (AAV TB)

Special Report: 4Q24 Consensus Earnings Summary - March 4, 2025

The combined 4Q24 earnings of 597 stocks in the SET Index (accounting for 98% of total market capitalization) amounted to Bt190,163mn, up 12% YoY...

Krungthai XSpring

Tourism and Airline Sectors - Expect Limited Impact from Uyghur Repatriation

We maintain a Neutral view on the sector and select CENTEL as the top pick (Outperform; TP at Bt39.00), given its stronger-than-peer earnings...

Krungthai XSpring

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: 2Q24 GDP Growth - August 20, 2024

We expect economic growth in 2H24E to accelerate beyond the 1.9% YoY expansion seen in 1H24E, serving as a key driver in achieving the revised...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - APRIL 18, 2024

Although many Asian bourses bounced up, the SET sank sharply amid concerns that the Fed would maintain interest rates at a high level, alongside...

Krungthai XSpring

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